What's your read on this conflict? How can it play out? What could be the broader implications and consequences?
There is Jordan + Iraq standing between Israel and Iran, so unless the US gets involved directly, the full-scale invasion by either side should be rather unlikely. (?)
What could Israel do?
The same way they attack nuclear sites, they could potentially cripple the oil industry in Iran?
What could Iran do?
Besides using proxies to attack Israel from within, they could block the "Straight of Hormuz" - essential for oil cargo. This would not piss off only enemies, but also their allies like China.
This leads me to my next question. What will be China's reaction? Especially if Israel decides to proceed with destroying Iranian oil-producing capacities. They do import sanctioned Iranian Oil.
In 2024, they imported 11.1 million barrels per day from all sources.
This analysis suggests that in the first three quarters of 2024, 350 million barrels of mostly Iranian oil changed hands in Malaysia, so we can assume that Iranian oil is 7-10% of total China's imports. Of course, with a very nice discount and paid in renminbi.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-iran-south-china-sea-oil-trade/
There is Jordan + Iraq standing between Israel and Iran, so unless the US gets involved directly, the full-scale invasion by either side should be rather unlikely. (?)
What could Israel do?
The same way they attack nuclear sites, they could potentially cripple the oil industry in Iran?
What could Iran do?
Besides using proxies to attack Israel from within, they could block the "Straight of Hormuz" - essential for oil cargo. This would not piss off only enemies, but also their allies like China.
This leads me to my next question. What will be China's reaction? Especially if Israel decides to proceed with destroying Iranian oil-producing capacities. They do import sanctioned Iranian Oil.
In 2024, they imported 11.1 million barrels per day from all sources.
This analysis suggests that in the first three quarters of 2024, 350 million barrels of mostly Iranian oil changed hands in Malaysia, so we can assume that Iranian oil is 7-10% of total China's imports. Of course, with a very nice discount and paid in renminbi.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-iran-south-china-sea-oil-trade/
