I have the feeling that the bitcoin value is collasping

[void]

from what I know second⁠ biggest owner of BTC is FBI, only Satoshi has/had more

not saying it's an argument⁤ for not banning it - actually if it's moved could be seen as a sign⁣ of upcoming problems :-D

 

[avalanche]

You dont take into account BTC holders who spreaded their wealth across hundreds of wallets to⁠ avoid popularity.

 

[OTR365]

FBI does not hoard coins. The coins seized from internet entrepreneurs such as Ross‍ Ulbricht, were auctioned a long time ago.

 

[LouisB]

I don't think that banning BTC in the whole world is even possible. Look at how︀ much banks in dozens of countries are on black or grey list due to money︁ laundering etc. for dozens of years. Much more pragmatic step is an attempt to force︂ all banks and payment processor to follow KYC/AML rules and take own piece thanks to︃ taxes. Even if all governments managed to ban crypto for all banks, there are a︄ lot of payment systems like Mpesa in Africa, Alipay/Wechat in China etc. How you would︅ block these middleman systems and prevented users from dealing with Bitcoins between each other?

 

[LouisB]

Exactly, they were sold‍ with a discount and the demand was much higher than the available seized amount. Similarly,⁠ Bulgaria sold gradually their seized bitcoin in auctions and many other national authorities doing the⁤ same

 

[LouisB]

I agree that we will⁤ see CBDC but don't understand why you think they could threaten to BTC. CBDC will⁣ be highly inflated coins by their nature to keep the status quo with increasing central⁢ bank balance sheets

 

[void]

I know, part of‍ them auctioned, a lot remaining from what I know - anyway it was just a⁠ "fun fact", nothing important 🙂

 

[Martin Everson]

You wouldn't need to.

 

[nomad999]

For now the price of bitcoin is following the trend of everything else, i expect‌ the price to tank heavily when the global market crash again soon, thinking 3 digits‍ btc ... i dont think we have seen real pain yet.
The next halving in⁠ may is likely going to put even more downside pressure on the price as a⁤ lot of miners will go bankrupt and will be forced to sell their stash of⁣ btc.
Only after this storm is over will the price skyrocket to new high like⁢ it did several time before.
Just my take on it at this point.

Worst case︀ scenario the price will stay low for some time but bitcoin will never cease to︁ exist, especially with energy becoming more cheap over time it will always be profitable to︂ mine for someone somewhere.

Also all those talks about 51% attack are just nonsense from︃ people who are clueless and biased against it, the cost for such an attack would︄ be insane and extremely risky. At best the result would be a network disruption for︅ a few days and everything would get back to normal and this would only push︆ the price up in the end.

 

[OTR365]

We've already seen one wave of panic; one must really be shitting⁠ one's pants to sell at 4000 USD. Other explanations: 1) Forced liquidation of a leveraged⁤ position by an exchange, 2) Fat fingers. So, my thinking is: If there is a⁣ next wave, it won't go as low, because the weakest hands & fattest fingers have⁢ already been shaken out.

There weren't waves of bankrupties after the previous halvings, so why now? If a miner is︂ already living from hand to mouth, they won't have many coins to sell. Those who︃ can afford to stash coins, are probably in a good financial position.

I am quite︄ positive about bitcoin. Not super bullish, but positive. Gradually people will start worrying about solvency︅ issues, and I can't see bitcoin doing badly in that situation. The industrialized world is︆ only one bank holiday away from steep haircuts.

 

[nomad999]

Well mining is a bit complex now from what i have gathered, there a several‌ generation of mining rigs out there and the latest ones are crazy efficient even at‍ not so cheap electricity price, it seems most miners running very old hardware even at⁠ very cheap electricity won't be able to compete with newer hardware after the halving and⁤ if the price tanked for some time many will have to sell more to stay⁣ affloat.

Here is a very good article on the matter and very recent :
https://www.blockwaresolutions.com/research-and-publications/2020-halving-analysis

 

[countryfree]

I still have faith in bitcoin.
I also have shares, and they're down even more.‌ When I see central banks (EU & US) printing money like there's no tomorrow, bitcoin‍ clearly has a future.

 

[LouisB]

Why? If you allow the‌ third party to handle cash in and out from bitcoins, then it's similar like the‍ direct using banking just more expensive, so this not only a question about forcing all⁠ banks to ban transactions related to bitcoin

 

[Martin Everson]

So you asked the below question and I responded to it with "You⁠ wouldn't need to". Do you find any middlemen companies openly willing to break US sanctions⁤ on Iran anywhere on planet earth? Same logic applies as no Mpesa or Alipay CEO⁣ of these "middlemen systems" wants to end up fined, business closed down or put in⁢ jail. They will implement draconian measures. It won't stop a determined person as nothing will︀ but the punishment dished out if caught will serve as a hindrance.

 

[iloveyouguys]

When do you think US will stop being at the top of the military︀ hierarchy and subsequently financial hierarchy?

 

[OTR365]

This is a race against time. The enemy is at the gates, preparing for a‌ 2nd wave of panic selling. Cavalry is on the way, but it will still take‍ a month. Too late, I think, but the near arrival of halving should dampen the⁠ selling.

This week Raoul Pal (GMI, Real Vision) put out a report, basically telling the⁤ World is truly, royally fucked. He is bullish on gold, and ultra bullish on bitcoin.⁣ To me, the recent market activity looks a bit weak. I actually expected BTC would⁢ have hit 8400 USD already now. Gold has already fully recovered, but not bitcoin, so︀ I guess bitcoin is still very vulnerable to the downside.

Yes, if the price falls, there︄ will be more selling pressure from the miners. If it rises; less pressure. In this︅ way, the up/downtrends in bitcoin feed itself. In my opinion, the situation with hardware is︆ the same as it has always been: New mining rigs drive out the old rigs.︇ (CPU < GPU < ASIC). Somebody is always close to quitting. At that point, they︈ have only few coins left and hence don't have a huge effect on the market︉ price.

(The link you posted mentioned busting the myth, "Breakeven Price of the Miner is︊ a Price Floor." This is self-evident: In no commodity is the production cost a price︋ floor. Recent example: Crude oil market).

 

[Martin Everson]

They stopped being the top military‍ hierarchy after WW2. They lost every war since from Vietnam to the 18 year war⁠ in Afghanistan where the Taliban whipped their a*s and forced them to do a peace⁤ deal recently. Who would think the so called greatest military in the world could not⁣ beat a bunch of guys running round in headscarfs, sandals with AK47 and RPG7's. Thats⁢ all you need to know about US power in modern warfare. Modern warfare is not︀ big bombers, jet fighters, battleships and submarines. Modern warfare is self sacrifice, bravery, winning hearts︁ and minds and righteousness. None of which the US possesses sadly.

US power is projected︂ financially via using the dollar as a weapon. It's the accepted international currency of trade︃ and the US has used it to wage economic war on i.e Turkey etc. Their︄ dominance won't last for ever. Once a suitable alternative is found to the dollar they︅ will end being top of the financial hierarchy. Any alternative global currency used in international︆ trade, foreign reserves and settlement that is outside US control will be end of US︇ as number one financially. They will not be able to use financial sanctions as a︈ weapon, maintain the unfair advantage they have over being able to print dollars or dominate︉ international trade. Unfortunately we are decades away from that point. Also US will topple any︊ government or person by any means who tries to achieve this result as they have︋ to maintain their dominant position that benefits them at ANY cost to human life.

P.S Bitcoin is not the game changer.

 

[clemens]

so far the bitcoin is stable, it doesn't look like any collaps!

 

[iloveyouguys]

If not US, who is at the top of dominance hierarchy then?︌

I think you are being emotional. The only reason US gets to wage economic war︍ is because they have the military advantage over other countries. Money is worthless if you︎ don't have power to protect it.

1. US is an island, away from other countries.️ One of the biggest military advantage.
2. They control majority of information distribution in the‌ world (TV, movies, songs, apps, internet). They shape identities of people who consume these media.‍ Look at how middle east changed in last 10 years. Why do you think women⁠ started to drive in UAE?
3. Their lands are new. Unlike Asia or Eu or⁤ Middle east. More self sustaining compared to other continents. That's why they grew faster than⁣ other countries in last 100 years.
4. Not to mention the tech and size of⁢ military budget. US attracts the best minds from the world with $.

Even if the︀ average US soldier or person is an utter idiot, it doesn't matter. Even if they︁ lose wars to people who fight with sandals, it doesn't matter. They can hurt other︂ countries. That's leverage in negotiation. That's what matters.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[John Andrews]

Lol... war on terrorism was never meant to be won... it is/was simply a transfer‌ of wealth from the american taxpayer to the military industrial complex. Even if the US‍ dollar loses its status they will still be the #1 country in regards to the⁠ economy and tech.