Already in the middle of the gold collapse, it was
known that lots of investors had to meet margin calls on their Lombard loans. As for the physical gold/paper gold premium, three of the four big Swiss refineries had to close due to coronavirus. The markup will disappear over time, but I do enjoy seeing bullion trading way over paper.
I suspect the story with bitcoin's hard fall is very similar: Some traders took
leveraged long positions in order︀ to profit on the coming halving. They got burned badly. Also, hedge fund participation in︁ bitcoin has grown a lot in recent years. When the price goes down, those guys︂ don't HODL, but cut their losses - even go short.
A very good point. It is about 37︇ days to halving, and in this time bitcoin will inflate by 460M USD. If miners︈ would sell all their coins, that amount of money would be needed for bitcoin just︉ to maintain this price level. At the current 124 billion market cap, bitcoin is still︊ too small for many institutional investors. At 1 trillion market cap, bitcoin would be both︋ more useful/liquid, and perhaps less likely to get banned.
Stopping the World economy for months︌ will lead into a serious solvency crisis for companies and countries. In case the US︍ dollar strengthens, the doomsday might arrive very fast. There are not many assets that are︎ independent of the financial system. In case we end up with e.g. a debt jubilee,️ governments will try to close all exits before the haircuts begin.