My humble opinion:
- technical analysis for cryptos is total bulls**t. I always see charts analyzed in hindsight, never have I seen a clear and successful prediction. The "traders" always call two possible "scenarios", either it will go up or it will go down. f**k, I can make that prediction!
- technical analysis for stocks is mostly wishful thinking
- technical analysis for some specific areas - forex and commodities - may make sense but it is not as easy as you think.
- efficient market hypothesis is also bulls**t. If the markets were 100% efficient, how is it possible that people like Ed Thorp, Jim Simons or George Soros exist? I'm not including Warren Buffett because according to efficient︀ market hypothesis it is still possible he is just an extremely lucky guy who was︁ in the right place at the right time and then once again was pretty lucky︂ in the following decades.
Back to Bitcoin - I believe Bitcoin operates in something I'd︃ call "cycles" or maybe "fractals". The rules are set in stone and similar situations repeat,︄ only on larger and larger scales. Of course this most importantly includes the halving and︅ the 4-year cycles.
With all that, I'm afraid Bitcoin (and all other coins) is also︆ easy to manipulate and to influence the price - with futures, options and with exchanges︇ themselves. Do you know what are the possibilities of Bitfinex (and their Tether) or Bittrex︈ (and their 100x leverage)? I have no idea but I'm pretty sure they could crash︉ the entire cryptoeconomy if they really wanted.
So the benchmark you can aspire to beat︊ is simply "buy and hodl". You can expect the price of BTC to increase in︋ USD terms if the monetary supply will increase. If you cannot beat this benchmark, it︌ doesn't make a lot of sense to trade crypto.
