The JohnnyDoe IBKR portfolio
- Thread starter JohnnyDoe
- Start date
It’s cheap for a reason: sales are shrinking, decline is structural. I don’t think it will continue to pay those dividends for long.
Long-term, they need to make adjustments to maintain relevance in the market. I believe it is currently overly punished and good for a ~15% recovery in the next six months or so. If the stock price stays too low for long, they will need to cut dividends. It’s a bit speculative but I don’t see much more decline in stock prices in the short term and they probably have enough financial headroom to avoid dividend cuts until sometime next year. Certainly not worth a large position but reasonable for a small play.
EWY or any other KOSPI-tracking ETF has been good since March. I hope Trump starts bombing Iran and the Iranians put a missile into an oil tanker so we can all do that again.
Here is the mid year update.
Performance 7.55%, dividends 10.72%.
Performance 7.55%, dividends 10.72%.
And some stress analysis:
• Reverse stress: a −20% year is most-plausibly a 2.2-sigma joint move (ARCC −27%, BXMT −22%, MCHI −29%, JEPI −15%); −30% requires ~3.2 sigma.
• Stressed correlations → 0.90: volatility jumps 9.9% → 15.7%, and 99% VaR to −36.6%. This is the “everything-correlates” case, and it reconciles with the deterministic GFC −54% / COVID −37% scenarios on the Stress Test tab.
• Liquidity: small — ~0.45% normally, ~1.3% in stress.
• Reverse stress: a −20% year is most-plausibly a 2.2-sigma joint move (ARCC −27%, BXMT −22%, MCHI −29%, JEPI −15%); −30% requires ~3.2 sigma.
• Stressed correlations → 0.90: volatility jumps 9.9% → 15.7%, and 99% VaR to −36.6%. This is the “everything-correlates” case, and it reconciles with the deterministic GFC −54% / COVID −37% scenarios on the Stress Test tab.
• Liquidity: small — ~0.45% normally, ~1.3% in stress.