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It is now legal to confiscate your assets in the west - movie

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It would be interesting to know if anyone here has‍ their own predictions about the next bubble / crisis.
@wellington looking forward to your insights⁠ (with graphs haha)

I think Charlie Munger put it well during an interview in the⁤ decade of zero interest rates, very low inflation and ‘quantitative easing’, when asked for his⁣ thoughts on the situation he said, “If you think you understand what’s going on, you’re⁢ an idiot.”
 
I was recently reading the other day a member wrote about flowbank and how long‌ it takes to get the securities back (6 months and counting).

I did not assume‍ it would take so long and you get it back within a matter of days.⁠ Why would it take longer? After all allegedly the securities are held in your name⁤ in a segregated account outside the bankruptcy proceedings.

So, I have to credit some slack⁣ to this great taking theory and have to rethink it.

Its also pretty much impossible⁢ to get physical share certificates serving as further indication.

However in some instances its possible︀ to own shares directly with the company and / or get some tokenized shares in︁ your own wallet (however im not entirely convinced about that).
 
Nah, they'll just redefine happy just as they did with "inflation",‍ "liberal", "free", "justice", "vaccine", "science" etc etc etc
 
In Old English and earlier periods,‍ the word "gay" originally derived from the Old French word gai and the Late Latin⁠ gaius.
Gay is a word with many meanings. A gay person is homosexual, but if⁤ we describe something like a scene or a party as gay, that means it's bright,⁣ merry, and happy. Gay originally meant excited, festive and merry. Skipping down the street⁢ is something you'd do in a gay mood.
 
Yes, I thought the same myself. Very disturbing as "segregated" means not mixed up with︃ the broker/entity's own dealings. Disturbing to say the least.
NVO
 
best video of the 3 links provided, the first‌ one are low quality and useless!
 
Sure but that change of meaning was natural and not purposeful,⁢ manipulative and malign like the examples I gave.
 
When society doesn't accept anything as‍ an absolute truth then everything is subject to each individuals understanding and choice, so everything⁠ can be truth or everything could be a lie to someone.
 
OK so I watched the documentary and found it interesting. It is true financialised assets‌ are easy to steal or bail-in. I don't keep any assets in West since 2022‍ and also none that are financialised [yet]. I discussed in this thread what I did⁠ to avoid any potential crazy confiscation after pandoras box was opened with seizure of Russian⁤ state assets.

My big concern is not an outright confiscation of assets of private people⁣ but a haircut levied i.e a windfall defense tax or solidarity tax. A situation where⁢ tax rises no longer deliver the results that they want and they resort to simply︀ stealing a portion of your wealth to fill the gap.

Will this all happen unlikely︁ as the world is splitting into two geopolitical spheres and in the future two financial︂ systems. One US dominated the other Chinese dominated. People can just jump ship.
 
Just another nut saying stuff that will never happen, scaring conspiracy nuts into buying his‌ useless book instead of investing in something useful.

He claims to be a "ex hedge‍ fund manager". I couldn't find any proof of that online, the only company registered to⁠ him was a some "wood & forestry management" in Stockholm, with zero employees and zero⁤ revenues.
https://www.allabolag.se/foretag/david-rogers-webb/stockholm/skogstjänster/KY7GLJY4TI5YHGM

In other words- a loser.

But by all means if you believe that,⁣ exchange all your assets into Gold and bury it in your back yard. Then come⁢ back in 20 years and watch how literally everybody BUT you got richer.
 
Buying gold 20 years⁠ ago and burying it in the backyard one would have made 553%, that's 27% per⁤ year.
Not too bad, beats any term deposit and even SPY, is safer - with⁣ less drawdowns.

SPY:
As of December 2024, over the analyzed timeframe (20 years), the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)︁ ETF obtained a 10.29% compound annual return, with a 14.68% standard deviation. It suffered︂ a maximum drawdown of -50.80% that required 53 months to be recovered.
 
Not sure about the math.‍ But my phone tells me otherwise:
6.53^0.05 = 1.098. This would be more like 9.8%⁠ effective interest rate. Still got, but lower than SPY.

I do appreciate your post.⁤ But the problem with the 27% is that the longer the timespan, the higher the⁣ value due to the compounding effect, hence it is a value hard to understand. (At⁢ 30 years, you already have a 54% per year, at 40 years 111% and at︀ 50 years it is a whopping 233%.) Super for marketing. But that's exactly why countries︁ mandate the induction of AER and the like.

Just FYI, the compunding effect with cell︂ B2=((1+B$1)^$A2-1)/$A2

1%2%3%4%5%10%15%20%
11.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%
21.01%2.02%3.04%4.08%5.13%10.50%16.12%22.00%
31.01%2.04%3.09%4.16%5.25%11.03%17.36%24.27%
41.02%2.06%3.14%4.25%5.39%11.60%18.73%26.84%
51.02%2.08%3.19%4.33%5.53%12.21%20.23%29.77%
101.05%2.19%3.44%4.80%6.29%15.94%30.46%51.92%
151.07%2.31%3.72%5.34%7.19%21.18%47.58%96.05%
201.10%2.43%4.03%5.96%8.27%28.64%76.83%186.69%
251.13%2.56%4.38%6.66%9.55%39.34%127.68%377.58%
301.16%2.70%4.76%7.48%11.07%54.83%217.37%787.92%
351.19%2.86%5.18%8.42%12.90%77.44%377.64%1684.77%
401.22%3.02%5.66%9.50%15.10%110.65%667.16%3671.93%
451.26%3.20%6.18%10.76%17.74%159.76%1195.04%8125.03%
501.29%3.38%6.77%12.21%20.93%232.78%2165.31%18198.88%
551.32%3.58%7.42%13.90%24.79%341.93%3961.13%41170.55%
601.36%3.80%8.15%15.87%29.47%505.80%7305.00%93910.86%
651.40%4.03%8.97%18.15%35.14%752.88%13564.29%215707.15%
701.44%4.29%9.88%20.82%42.04%1126.78%25335.31%498411.37%
751.48%4.55%10.91%23.93%50.44%1694.53%47562.49%1157528.49%
801.52%4.84%12.05%27.56%60.70%2559.25%89687.35%2700284.33%
851.56%5.16%13.34%31.82%73.24%3879.96%169783.11%6323927.87%
901.61%5.49%14.78%36.80%88.59%5902.25%322523.69%14861738.05%
951.66%5.85%16.40%42.64%107.40%9005.97%614568.77%35034405.81%
1001.70%6.24%18.22%49.50%130.50%13779.61%1174312.45%82817973.52%
 
You are right about the compounding, lazy me just took the 20 year percentage and‌ divided by 20.
Looks like I need to move on to the next place, I‍ am slowing down like the locals already.
 
You're totally right, they are already doing this in many countries including Denmark, Germany and Switzerland⁤ which countries I follow closely for personal reasons 😉 It is a hair cut they are⁣ doing not confiscating yet, they rise taxes on food and all the stuff people buy⁢ including properties and cars, they even introduce new taxes on electricity and other utility.

It is the low- and middle class that pays and suffer from all this, the high︀ class don't even bother and continue as nothing heppende.
 
You must be safe from bail-ins, while⁤ for many others, it seems like an increasingly higher risk to be materialized:
https://www.srb.europa.eu/en/content/single-resolution-board-publishes-its-new-bail-template-banks

I guess︁ that's another idea you might not have considered:
https://www.euronews.com/business/2...ax-charge-on-property-bought-by-non-eu-buyers
There are more thought-provoking films like this.
This was just one example.︅ I think it did contain some interesting pieces of information about legislation, but I didn't︆ bother to fact-check.
I figured it could be worth turning this thread into or creating︇ a separate thread about documentaries related to the economy, conspiracies, future predictions etc.
Anyway, another︈ film that I found interesting that opens about about potential future threats is titled "Stakeholder︉ Communism"
 
Not only your calculation⁠ was wrong, you also conveniently chose 2006 as your starting year.

Why not choosing 1980⁤ as your starting year? Then you would have been at 0% performance in NOMINAL TERMS⁣ until 2008. Basically holding a useless piece of Yellow metal for 38 years while telling⁢ yourself it's a great investment.

In the very long term:
Stocks: 6.7% in real terms︀
Gold: 0.5% in real terms

But why am I wasting my time talking to Gold︁ nuts... Gold nuts are like Crypto nuts but without the possibility of actually getting rich.︂
 
You nailed it, 100% , yet another pointless video from someone hoping︁ to make quick money off YouTube.
 
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