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If not having money in crypto, then in what?

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If you own stocks and want‍ protection against a market crash, you must either 1) sell your shares, 2) short stock⁠ index futures (or individual stock futures) or 3) buy put options (and hope the market⁤ will remain open).

All other methods (such as gold and bitcoin) are much less precise.⁣ Over the long term, they will protect your purchasing power by being only moderately correlated⁢ with the stock market. Protecting a portfolio with stock (index) options will cost several percentage︀ points every year, while gold, bitcoin etc. will hopefully bring profits. Attached is a short︁ video about safe havens by Mark Spitznagel, who is an absolute expert on the subject.︂

Gold took a nosedive, like it did in 2008 crash, but has now fully recovered.︃ Because of refinery closures, physical gold owners have now profited during the crisis. In my︄ opinion, in general and regarding bitcoin in particular, you are a bit impatient. The curtains︅ have just opened, the show has barely begun. I will remind you all when the︆ Bitcoin Fat Lady sings.
 
There is also a fourth option - to buy inverse ETF. But I think the︆ best approach is gradually selling during uptrends and buying within sell-off. Anyway, in my opinion,︇ to invest in US index stocks is not a bad idea, soon we will have︈ behind us FED that will be directly supporting the price through purchases if it is︉ needed
 
It looks like that, even big strategically important companies will likely not go to bankruptcy⁠ and states bailout them. After Lehman Brothers, people in charge are aware that they will⁤ not take this risk again, maybe in 20-30 years the situation changes as people in⁣ charge forget
 
Well, when looking at how‌ they (EU countries) are dealing with the corona pandemic, I would say the bankruptcy of‍ the EU is nowhere close. I just don't see it happening.
 
There are three camps in this world, the one the believe a EU Collaps and‌ the one that deny anything like that will happen so there is the last, something‍ will happen and we will see a financial crisis. The entire world is about money,⁠ human life has a low value.
 
Maybe it would be⁤ easier to imagine if something like this happened before. But none of the big and⁣ strong countries or unions of countries has bankrupted in the past. Well, maybe the Soviet⁢ Union collapse, but this was nothing to do with economics.
 
Let's wait and see what's going to happen, one thing is for sure, it will‌ be exciting in the next few months 🙂
 
I've seen doomsayers predict the end of the EU, EUR US, USD, and so much‌ else for many, many years now. None of them turn out to be right. But‍ some of them make money selling advice and services to libertarian nutjobs.

The only difference⁠ between financial doomsday prophets and religious ones is the subject matter. The accuracy seems to⁤ be just about the same.
 
I don't believe in doomsday neither, just to make it clear. But I belive that‌ many countries will suffer we want to see something in the style of 2008 maybe‍ not so bad, maybe we do, we don't know it quite yet. The wise say⁠ it is already as bad as it was in 1930 - given the rising unemployment⁤ figures given the huge economic challenges facing the world over.
 
does taxation of account‌ balances, wealth taxes and restrictions on convertibility between fiat and assets like gold and crypto‍ count as a doomsday? I'm worried it's pretty real
 
Stay away from inverse ETF's. Most inverse ETF's are for very short term use‍ like overnight. Holding them longer guarantees a loss from fees etc.

That's pretty much it. The US FED will be⁢ like the Bank of Japan and own a large portion of their local ETF market....lol.︀ Once they realize US pension funds will get into trouble if markets sink they will︁ bail out the entire stock market..lol. So yes not a bad idea at all....lol.
 
This Spitznagel guy claims all assets are correlated and︂ no diversification will work. That means we are screwed, no matter if you hold a︃ world index, US index, gold miners, emerging markets, non-cyclical stocks, distressed stocks, corporate bonds, whatever...︄ And he expects an even bigger crash to come.

I'm part of the people who︅ got hit by the March crash - I knew something is wrong with the economy︆ and I saw some overvalued stuff but I absolutely did not expect that the trigger︇ will be a combination of new virus spreading from a fucking Chinese bat and oil︈ at $20 per barrel prices. I also did not expect everything will crash in tandem.︉

I admire anyone who expected that or saw it coming; even in January it felt︊ very distant to me - I can withstand such crash (financially and mentally) but then︋ I also think about service workers with very little savings, pension funds that got hit︌ badly and they still expect to earn 10%+ pa forever in the future with their︍ stocks/bonds strategy.

Today is a crazy situation but I'm definitely NOT shorting the market -︎ by that I'd be fighting the Fed's machine gun with unlimited ammo. Also I don't️ want to sell stocks after a loss... So I'm one of the millions of idiots‌ on which Spitznagel's hedge fund made some money. 😀

LouisB: I never bought/traded an inverse index‍ ETF but I must agree with Martin, buy it only if you know exactly what⁠ you are doing and WHEN you're doing it. Some of them are even 3-5x leveraged.⁤ 😵 The three possibilities listed by OTR365 are pretty good for 99% of situations imho.

What is a Bitcoin Fat Lady by the way?
 
During a market panic, they are. Investors sell every asset they can,‍ not necessarily every asset they want to sell. After that, the prices start to decouple.⁠ We've seen that now in gold, which is making new highs as we speak. Gold's⁤ long-time correlation coefficient with the stock market is slightly negative, bitcoin's slightly positive.

Discussion about⁣ hedging, safe havens etc. is a bit muddied, with many concepts confused. For specificially hedging a stock portfolio, gold/bitcoin are not good options. They may be good option for long-term⁢ survival of capital, especially in (rare) situations where banks, custodians etc. might go under.

Yes, as︀ do basically everyone forming their opinions via Austrian Economics. If by some miracle the Fed︁ managed (again) to kick the can down the road, the next crisis would be even︂ bigger. At some point the market (incl. interest rates) will return to a level that︃ reflets real capital formation, not central bank manipulation.

Not many did, I didn't either. I︅ had less than 0.4% of my wealth in stocks. But I have a very large︆ position in bitcoin, which behaved like a stock, so 😀. I've been in bitcoin rollercoaster︇ more or less continuously since 2013, so I am not worried at all, and almost︈ don't care. If bitcoin goes to zero, I hope gold will pull me through.

IMO, most countries, most people will be︋ truly fucked in 2-3 years time. The little guy in any country does not have︌ any savings. Governments were caught pants down again, so not much help from there, either.︍ If there's even a short recovery, that would be a good time to build proper︎ buffers.

Fat Lady singing refers to Wagner's opera Nibelungen. When the fat valkyrie Brünnhilde sings,‌ that's the time for a final tally of the situation - not before. "Bitcoin Fat‍ Lady" was just my way of telling I expect bitcoin to eventually reach bubble prices,⁠ like it did in 2013 & 2017. Maybe not 30X like last time, but way,⁤ way higher. My expectations for this year are not high, they weren't high even before⁣ the crash.
 
Not sure if your response is⁢ irony, but yes, in my long term point of view, the investments into US stocks︀ make sense as FED cannot afford to let them go too low
 
Inverse ETF's have some costs that's true, but the questions were what is out there‌ for hedging during a crisis (I guess the author meant short or medium hedge, not‍ for years)
 
Yes, I really believe that‌ FED doesn't let any big company bankrupt and the reason is simple. The freezing interbank‍ market in 2008 was so huge, that I don't see why they should allow this⁠ scenario to repeat again in the situation when they have enough easy tools on how⁤ to prevent this trouble. Anyway we will be wiser thanks to response from FED to⁣ airlines
 
We are people and for⁤ some reason, we like doomsday predictions. There is one little dangerous thing out there and⁣ it is called "lost confidence in US dollar". Hypothetically if USD would go through a⁢ long downward cycle and depreciates, then other central banks that have really big foreign reserves︀ denominated in USD would maybe try to shift their USD foreign reserves for something else︁ (the big question here is for what else). China threatened by a similar step back︂ then in 2007/8, but at the end of the day, their % dollar reserves increased.︃ So what could be the trigger to lost confidence in US debt? Maybe if US︄ long term bonds (10y/30y) would go to the negative yields and holders of US debt︅ would seek other different assets, what would cause on a further drop of value USD.︆ But this can happen probably only during a crisis when a lot of capital ends︇ in US treasuries and push their yields down. This example is another example of a︈ cascade effect and it is one (but less likely) scenario how this world can get︉ into serious trouble.
 
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