General decline in availability and value of CIP and GV programs

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HardRJones

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Feb 15, 2025
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I deeply apologize for pulling you away from your riveting discussions on how best to launder an annual three digit crypto revenue through the Bank of Zimbabwe and forcing you to come to the forum titled “Second Citizenship, Golden Visa, and Immigration” to click on the circus I am arranging to discuss recent changes in citizenship by investment and golden visa programs. Please forgive me.

There appears to be an increase in the general attack on citizenship by investment and golden visas that is being led by western nations.

Let’s start with restrictions in Europe. The biggest news here is the shuttering of Malta’s CIP after a ruling by an EU court. That closes down one of the most accessible routes to EU nation citizenship.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqrd8dpzd5o.amp

Following close on its heels is a proposed increase in time to citizenship for Portugal’s golden visa program. This comes after several restrictive changes to Portuguese and Spanish programs over the past few years.
https://www.imidaily.com/europe/portuguese-govt-aims-to-double-citizenship-timeline-to-10-years/

Something that has gone less noticed are restrictions to citizenship by descent programs in Europe. Italy’s recent imposition of a two generation limit broken by ancestor naturalization is the most severe example, but Ireland has also officially restricted (instead of unofficially as in the past) the special regime outside of the FBR by explicitly imposing expectation of three years’ residency and other requirements.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxkk0z9y05o.amp

Canada is also moving to reform their citizenship law after a high court ruling through bill C-3.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/lost-canadians-bill-tabled-court-deadline-1.7553260

The EU has made some administrative moves that are speculated to target citizenship by investment nations, which is supported by official comments by those involved in those changed.

https://www.imidaily.com/europe/eu-set-to-finalize-visa-free-suspension-mechanism-for-cbi-countries/

The EU famously revoked visa-free access for Vanuatu a number of years ago for irregularities and is rumored to have pressured Moldova and Montenegro to close their programs.

The US has threatened travel bans on a number of countries, including some CIP nations.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/tr...36-countries-travel-ban-memo-says-2025-06-15/

These nations appear to be treating CIP as the proximate cause, and some Caribbean nations are talking about instituting residency requirements. This comes after a doubling in cost and an increase in due diligence requirements.

https://www.imidaily.com/caribbean/...-as-dominica-breaks-silence-on-us-travel-ban/

Of course, the US restricted access to VWP to only apply to Hungarian-born citizens in what can only be seen as a direct response to their citizenship by descent laws.

As a counterpoint, there have been proposals by Argentina, the US, and an opposition party in the UK to implement golden visa programs. Argentina’s proposal is actually a tightening of current laws, while the other two are not serious proposals and are unlikely to be implemented, in my personal opinion. New Zealand is one of the few countries to streamline their investor visa program lately. There are some African nations instituting extremely suspect programs for passports of little to no value and a couple of proposed south Pacific programs of undetermined seriousness.

Other countries have tightened programs over the past few years. Turkey instituted an in-person visit in their program after increasing the required investment. Reportedly, cost and requirements have been increased for naturalization in Armenia and Serbian citizenship by exception (mostly demand driven in the latter). Georgia had that weird, possibly aborted, launch of a program a few months ago. Mexico has administratively tightened requirements for their permanent residency.

I’ve said my piece. Be aware? Get it while you can if you were planning to do so?
 
I really think we’re seeing CIP and golden visa schemes losing steam.

The EU’s top‌ court just torpedoed Malta’s passport-for-sale program, and over in Portugal they’re talking about doubling the‍ investment requirement.

Even Italy and Ireland are reining in citizenship by descent. On top of⁠ that, the U.S. is eyeing stricter travel rules for these programs.
All of this shows⁤ they’re getting harder to access and offer less bang for your buck.
 
The Caribbean CIP countries are now talking about a 30 day residency (aggregate per year)‌ requirement for the first five years after issuance. They are also talking about a class‍ on St. Kitts history or whatever.
https://www.imidaily.com/caribbean/...ency-requirement-annual-cbi-application-caps/

This is a direct response to actions by⁠ the EU and US discussed in the now locked thread here. It seems the prediction⁤ about the impact on Caribbean CIP as well as other moves made against European golden⁣ visa schemes by court ruling or policy, although ultimately accurate, was unwelcome among some quarters.⁢

https://www.offshorecorptalk.com/threads/eus-latest-attack-on-cbi.47376/
 
https://www.imidaily.com/north-amer...ns-with-new-15k-us-tourist-visa-bond-program/

It appears the US is going to target CBI nations, among two other categories‌ of nations, with a “visa bond” of up to $15,000. The overstay rate for Antigua‍ snd Barbuda is 1.3% (the other Caribbean CBI nations are in line with this, except⁠ for Dominica which is 3.7%) compared to Angola’s 13% and the VWP member Spain’s 2.3%,⁤ so this is obviously a policy decision.
https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-10/24_1011_CBP-Entry-Exit-Overstay-Report-FY23-Data.pdf
 
Yeah, that’s definitely a political move. The overstay rates don’t really justify a $15K bond,‌ especially when some Visa Waiver countries have higher rates. Looks like the US is just‍ tightening the screws on CBI programs in general.
 
the world⁣ is closing again, visa free travel like we knew 20y ago wont exist soon enough,⁢ it also seems there isnt much demand coming from the general zoomer front for this︀ further exacerbating the trend of the world closing.
The best you can get are bilateral︁ travel agreements / visa for the regions where you want to go (and get special︂ entry visa for these). Some regions still see the benefit of open trade and will︃ open up whereas the legacy blocks with poor young generations and rich old ones will︄ likely close more and more to adhere to (economically very wrong) protectionist measures further impoverishing︅ its population.
 
I think we’ll see ETAs become︁ a plague. Countries have found a new low-impact cash cow to milk that has no︂ impact to their own citizens. That is a politician’s wet dream.

The US has had︃ ESTA for years. Canada has an ETA. Australia and New Zealand have ETA equivalents. Israel︄ has an ETA. The UK rolled out their ETA recently. The EU is trying to︅ implement ETIAS. Even St. Kitts and Nevis implemented an ETA. There are several others already︆ in existence. Eventually, no government will turn down what is essentially free money.
 
You just gotta be real about it and admit that open borders don’t work, free‌ movement mostly plays into the hands of criminal gangs and terrorists.

Regular folks don’t need‍ it as long as you can just register when you arrive and get free passage⁠ if you’ve got the right passport.
 
sad to read all this. I like my freedom dead:-!
 
wrong conclusions here. As⁤ with all gov programs (aml kyc for example), it is highly intrusive for the average⁣ joe and wont help to stop crime at all.
 
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