Much too early to say, if the elections would be done over again today, the PVV would win even more seats likely. Also do not disregard the outsize influence of Voetbal Inside, a soccer talk-show which has recently been positive towards Wilders. The media-tycoon behind it would love to see the public broadcasting company abolished which is something the PVV wants to do. The lead-ideologist behind the PVV, Martin︀ Bosma, has also said a couple of times that he wanted John de Mol to︁ have the broadcasting right for soccer in The Netherlands which would give him incredible amounts︂ of power. On top of that, John tried to buy the leading right-wing Dutch newspaper︃ "De Telegraaf" through an acquisition of TMG (Telegraaf Media Group).
Furthermore, the left-wing fusion of︄ PVDA and GroenLinks has turned out to be a massive failure, leaving the Left without︅ much agency, it's very unlikely they would gain any votes would the election be called︆ again.
The game of poker is still in full-play, and will likely take some months.︇ I would say the cards are stacked in the favor of Wilders, as the VVD︈ not wanting to negotiate allows him to blame them for not adhering to the will︉ of the people and call the election again. After which he would likely receive a︊ lot of disregarded VVD votes.
85% of VVD voters wanted to see VVD rule with︋ PVV, but they chose to just not partake into any negotiations for now. A cynic︌ could say because Rutte wants to take the helm at the NAVO and told his︍ party no to not lose his friends in Brussels.
Lastly, if you look at other︎ countries in Europe, once a populist gains hold / takes the lead it is very️ hard to get rid of them! Everything that goes wrong is the mistake of partners and everything that goes right is what they did. Combined with proper media back-up in the form of John de Mol, normalization of extreme views, neighboring countries with increasing extremism as well and a LOT of problems that are still unsolved, Wilders odds look quite good to be a force to be reckoned with.
The huge inflationary pressure on food is also not to be joked with, with two years of El Nino approaching we are certainly in for wild times. Just this month olive oil increased massively. Food︀ prices are still rising faster than wages, and that is a big problem. It will︁ only get worse as there are still a ton of people around who flat-out don't︂ believe in climate-change and entire countries that misuse it for political gain like the US.︃
Not a big fan of The Netherlands right now. Problems stay unsolved, costs are spiraling,︄ aging population and water infrastructure that will increasingly cost more money to keep up with︅ global warming and the gas well is dry. Before The Netherlands discovered gas, they were︆ a very average economy. The really got rich due to gas in spite of what︇ the Dutch keep telling themselves. Yes, they are traders, but so are the Greek.
Maybe, I am quite confident the AfD party︉ will accrue a lot of power and they are also leading the polls. The German︊ state has a lot of poison-pills against much too extreme stuff though. And the intelligence︋ service is very powerful. There are some other strange things happening in Germany, like the︌ Reichsburger movement which has over 20.000 members that do not recognize the state and as︍ recently as
December 2022 plotted a coup which was folded.
