The M2 supply chart is very relevant in my opinion. If anyone︀ cares about official inflation defined by CPI, that makes very little sense. If you are︁ not really in the very low income bracket with most of your income going towards︂ food+accomodation, then your REAL inflation was more like 10 % per year and in 2020︃ it even increased to 15-25 % per year. Equities going up, rare assets and collectibles︄ going up, select services (such as education, lawyers, house work...) going up. Sure, your new︅ iPhone will have more RAM, a faster processor and it will be cheaper. However, does︆ that really justify the rest to make official CPI to be 2 %? I think︇ not.
And this is if you live in e.g. the United States. If you live︈ in Turkey or Argentina, NOT ONLY the assets went up but EVEN THE CPI (food,︉ services, utilities) went up by 50%+ per year.
I seriously doubt Venezuela would allow anyone︊ to pay taxes in a commodity / foreign currency or Bitcoin. However, the process is︋ always the same - local currency loses value until noone wants to hold it and︌ the citizens use something else instead - in Zimbabwe they use the US dollar now.︍ USD has the big advantage of being the reserve currency (Chinese hold large amounts of︎ US debt and treasuries) as well as being the energy currency (Saudis agreed to trade️ oil for dollars so that there will always be demand for dollars).
If that changes and US dollar becomes weaker and weaker and loses its worldwide power, that is probably good news for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Yes, absolutely. Even if you were︅ the biggest idiot in the world and bought at the top in Dec 2017, today︆ you are in the green. No large-scale asset compares to this. You can find small︇ stocks that will become 10-baggers or even 100-baggers but Bitcoin is a worldwide phenomenon that︈ does this again and again - in these four year fractals.
It is funny that now even institutions can get involved and what is most interesting they can get involved without risk and profit from Bitcoin. The easiest way︀ for the is probably to buy the Grayscale trust (GBTC) immediately when issued, hedge against︁ price drop with futures, hodl for 6 months, sell it and collect the premium. Rince︂ and repeat and the institutions can basically get a risk-free 20-30 % p.a. profit if︃ they know how to do it. Compare that with stupid US treasuries yielding sub 1%.︄
I think this is one of the biggest misconceptions of people who think Bitcoin is︎ hyped by speculation and is a bubble. There really are people who have no need️ to sell it. If you are a HNWI and you're able to save 99% of your earnings, if you put some amount of it into crypto/Bitcoin, you have no need to sell after a year - given its historical track record. The more rich people come to the conclusion they don't want bonds or gold, the more people will be involved in Bitcoin.
There are︂ many technology risks, probably the biggest are 51% attack, quantum computing and transaction censorship. If︃ you consider BTC's game theory, noone really wants to do a 51% attack even if︄ they were able to do it (look at BCH...). Quantum computing is usually mentioned by︅ people who do not understand cryptography but yes, it may force the network to upgrade︆ to something better and theoretically almost all addresses (including Satoshi's coins) are threatened. Transaction censhorship︇ could happen e.g. in mining pools and in exchanges - what can happen is that︈ a bifurcation of Bitcoin will evolve and there will be "nice" and "clean" Bitcoins custodied︉ by someone like Paypal or Revolut and "dirty" self-custody Bitcoin held by regular people.
You can go back to history of countries who tried to control their own currency -︊ usually in the former Soviet block. There was the local currency, only legal tender and︋ exchange to anything else was blocked or heavily regulated. Yet still there were people who︌ somehow managed to get dollars or German marks or Swiss francs or whatever into the︍ country and they were offering it at the real street rate. It was possible to︎ avoid state controls even with fiat money, with crypto the easiness of that is 10x️ better.
Colombia and Argentina indexes, correct? You say "noone in these countries profited" and that is︆ not true. Let's say I live there and I have two options - keep money︇ in the local cash or buy the local index. I will always do the second︈ option, inflation will go up - but the companies' market cap will also go up︉ accordingly and usually more. So then it is up to the companies' forex position (are︊ they long or short foreign currency in their costs? Are they exporting a lot?).
Take these indexes, use their USD-values and compare it to indexes in some "low inflation" countries︋ such as Japan or Switzerland. You will be surprised that in USD terms these emerging︌ indexes didn't do as badly as you may think. Especially if they are export and︍ commodity countries.
The second part of your text - USD collapses and hyperinflation follows and︎ BTC is not a legal medium of exchange. What will happen to my Bitcoins? Absolutely️ nothing, I will not be willing to sell my Bitcoin for worthless fiat, same as gold, I will not be willing to sell my gold bar for dollars. You miss the point that many people DO NOT NEED TO CASH OUT out of Bitcoin. It is like a self-reinforcing mechanism combined with Lindy effect. Something better than a central bank controlled currency was created. I do not need to go back to fiat currency, I will use only the absolute minimum of USD possible and I will definitely NOT be holding wheelbarrows of paper money. People already taught this lesson in communist countries back in︀ 1950s.
