It all goes down to one number - FED interest rate.
There is a positive scenario: the FED will push the rate down to comfortable 2% and do it as fast as possible. That will allow people to keep their houses (mortgages will be affordable), it will allow like half of NYSE companies to keep digging (google how many public corporations are just zombies that barely serve their debt), that will bring cash to high-risk assets like venture capital, crypto etc and allow the music to continue.
Then there is a negative scenario: high rates are here to stay due to natural causes (inflation, overproduction,︀ population aging etc) and black swans (wars and conflicts). That will cause the financial system︁ to collapse like in 2008, but this time the boom will be bigger and the︂ QE mechanism is already if not exhausted, but at least not as efficient due to︃ overuse during Covid and extreme levels of debt accumulated in every industry. That will eventually︄ make economy healthier, but the cost will be hundreds of thousand closed businesses, mass bankruptcy,︅ million lost jobs etc.
BTC is just another high-risk asset, it closely correlates with others︆ like VC valuations and NASDAQ. Gold is like -5% from ATH, wouldn't call it a︇ sell off.
