I am not a trader either. I invest, which is why I do not own Bitcoin (which is a pure speculation).
I intended my analysis of Bitcoin to demonstrate its current correlation to the stock markets. An analysis of Bitcoin itself is useless because Bitcoin has no widely adopted utility.︀ So, how can you judge its true value?
But you can now determine its general︁ price direction based on a careful analysis of the macroeconomic view of the economy and︂ the movement of the various stock markets.
For example, the NASDAQ lost about 78% of︃ its value during the Great Financial Crisis (and it is currently down about 28%). If︄ that happened again, Bitcoin could lose 95% of its value or even more. When investors︅ panic, almost anything can happen.