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Betfair thinks that Trump is about 5 times more likely to win than Biden

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5K1PP3R

5K1PP3R

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https://www.betfair.com/exchange/pl...tion-2024/election-winner-betting-1.176878927
Back Odds for Trump: 1.67: Implies a probability of ~59.88%. Bet $1 to get $1.67 if Trump wins.
Back Odds for Biden: 8.2: Implies a probability of ~12.20%. Bet $1 to get $8.20 if Biden wins.

Trump is seen as more likely to win, with his implied probability (~59.88%) being almost 5 times higher than Biden's (~12.20%).

Is it Joever?

1720425166051.webp
 
Depends on who is counting the votes smi(&%
 
I think Trump may have this in the bag.

I still cannot believe that the claimed most powerful country in the world can only find⁤ these two candidates, (Trump, Harris) from their national talent pool, to be the next apparent⁣ leader of the "free world". The country does not have much of a future as⁢ a global leader going forward if this is all they can produce.
 
I have watched "public⁣ servants" and their sycophants in awe and bewildered since I was a child...and here is⁢ my take on them and their statist mentality...

Could a "few dastardly useless, delusional self-appointed︀ unproductive political parasites in gangs under the ruse of government" dupe gullible people into supporting︁ the SECOND worst person on the planet by running the WORST person against him/her?

rof/% smi(&%
 
Highly unlikely he wins, 14M illegals since 2020 all of which will be voting, as‌ most blue states will not check ID or proof of citizen and will allow mail‍ in ballots. The push for illegals was to repopulate congressional districts lost to migration to⁠ red states during the pandemic.

It also doesn't matter if he wins. He, like all⁤ presidents in the US, is a literal puppet, a scarecrow. He is a grifter, he⁣ came to office to refinance his and his son in laws real estate portfolio. Not⁢ to mention, he is, like all US politicians, subservient to the Israeli lobby. Voting in︀ the US is a ritualistic charade that gives the illusion of choice. Donations are all︁ that change policy, there is a ton of data to prove this. You can start︂ with OpenSecrets.
 
After watching the debate, Trump's odds of winning is very low. I'll be very surprised‌ if he does get reelected
 
At current Betfair prices,

Harris 1.95
Trump 2.12

64 million traded. But it's still very‌ early. That market is 113% over-round, so it's not a tight book.

I'd like to‍ see the prices at this point in 2016.

I watched some of the debate, and⁠ Harris was more coherent than normal, so it seems fairly likely the questions came in⁤ advance, and she was working on a script. As anyone who has seen her speak⁣ without one knows she can't make any salient point.



https://twitter.com/x/status/1833658814932959574
 
Exactly.
90% of mass media coverage is positive towards Harris and negative towards‌ Trump. So yes, they basically vote how TV/internet tells them to vote. I will be‍ surprised if he wins.
 
I still remember when he won the media talked trash about him "clown runs‌ for prez"

It seems to me that he has some die hard fansbut a‍ lot of his votes come also from people that for whatever reason don't openly admit⁠ they vote from him.
 
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