General sentiment towards BTC if we enter a crysis

[Calyx]

Assuming we go 2008 again soon, what do you guys think the general sentiment towards btc will be? Some of us see it as a hedge against in inflation and an escape from the system (I'm personally cautiously optimistic about it), but historically the crypto market took dives when the market took dives. Many people still see it as speculation and would drop it in fear.

I wander also if any panic would last long since probably the banks would get bailed out anyway. So any negative outcome would be more like a slow bleeding to death(by QE) than a quick axe to the head (the market weeding out the reckless).

 

[JackAlabama]

Well the problem is:︁ You clearly do not own stocks or 'non-existent' cash balance in your bank.
If you︂ were a credit suisse bond holder, it has just been taken away form you.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

I prefer btc to virtual toilet paper, as the latter can't even be used for the original intended purpose.

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[Martin Everson]

It could be at⁣ 100k end of year or 10k. It is still a speculative asset.

Instability in banking world is not going anywhere. We still got US debt︁ ceiling issue also coming up. Imagine a partial default.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/21/debt-priorities-00087834
Imagine i.e a 30-50% write-down︂ in the value of US Treasuries. If you think SVG was bad (with their US︃ treasury holdings devaluation) imagine all the investment funds, pension funds and banks that hold US︄ treasuries and that are leveraged or use it as collateral. It would cause a global︅ systematic problem. As an investor do you offload your treasuries? Do you wait and see︆ what bills pass? Do you rule out mentally all possibility of a default or cross︇ your fingers? lol.

 

[khinkali]

Not until Janet Yellen or Jerome Powell start using the word "transitory". As soon as you‌ hear that, dump it all!

 

[Martin Everson]

lol....true.

But who knows where BTC price will go. I don't think a strong bullish‌ or bearish conviction works in a crypto market that is pump and dump and is‍ the wild west.

 

[khinkali]

@Martin Everson I agree. Volatility is likely in that scenario, but in either direction.

At uncertain times, crypto often sees a short flight from alt coins to BTC, followed by‌ a BTC dump to fiat. When every financial asset drops, where do you run to?‍ As Buffett says, people will continue to buy Pepsi and See's Candies.

I'd be ready⁠ for a flight to PAXG if it weren't for such pronounced regulatory uncertainty in the⁤ USA. I wish there were a well run gold-backed token in some credible jurisdiction such⁣ as Singapore.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

Martin Everson said:
lol....true.

But who knows where BTC price will go. I don't think a strong bullish or bearish conviction works in a crypto market that is pump and dump and is the wild west.
Click to expand...

You are right, fiat is extremely volatile nowadays. However, it's a mathematical certainty that all fiat will eventually have no value, whereas btc remains stable.

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