A friend in Montenegro doesn't think there is much there from an investment point of view other than real estate and tourism. Serbia might be a better option, if you want something in the Balkans and outside the EU. Although Serbia comes with its own problems for doing business there. Increased Chinese investment and closer relationship with Russia, than some of its neighbours, being a couple that may cause issues for some.
Is Investing in Emerging Markets Worth the Risk?
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The idea of investing in projects or properties in Montenegro has never really crossed my mind, and I have to say I'm still a bit skeptical, even though I can find quite a lot of info about it online.
no. investing in Emerging markets id only do: real estate, stock market (the big players) or direct investment.
What direct investments would you do? How would those differ from investing in a VC fund?
opening a simple shop or smth like that, it could be anything from very simple to slightly less simple.
Its different as its under my direct control only covering the whole venture from a-z, its active while a vc fund is passive.
In emerging markets one does not wanna have too many hands inside ones small scale adventures. I dont mind buying the big players on their local stock market tho as they effectively own the gov and often are a monopoly.
While graft exists there too, its less impactful as theres a lot of leftovers to the shareholders (which are often influential folks) and often they also promote their local backwater stockmarket to outside investors for xyz reason (mainly to appear more legit and pulling in exit liquidity).
So wouldnt do it but if you know the vc fund yourself well bc you know the people running it, its a good way. I just dont happen to know such.
Sounds good. Which markets have you invested directly and which markets would you recommend newbies like us?
Did you find a plan for your investment, that would be of great interest for me?
dubai, tanzania, vietnam.
Well hard to say, but you gotta go there, immerse and see for yourself. The more underdeveloped a place is, the more basic the venture can be.
Armenia has some advantages, but also some obvious risks.
My interest there was crypto but it didn't seem clear enough.
I think for beginners, these markets are simply not suitable, and it is far too difficult to weigh the risks that may come with investing your savings here. It is probably better, as has been suggested a few times by the heavy hitters here on OCT, to invest in stocks, bonds, or even crypto. Emerging markets are for the more professional investors with very deep pockets.
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If money is your hope for independence you will never have it. The only real security that a man will have in this world is a reserve of knowledge, experience, and ability!
My personal favorite thread posted in the Mentor Group. Group of investment companies to avoid licensing.
You need to have your feet on the ground in these places, know local people, speak the language, and maybe after a couple of years of direct experience you can start thinking about investing. Otherwise you become meat for the grinder.
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Yes, I would say you need to know people you can trust on the ground. That's why I recommended funds a few posts back.
yes this is it. you gotta be there physically. Id also suggest only one at a time so dont split your time into 2 or 3 complicated territories.
What countries are you mainly looking at now? And what vehicles (funds, shares, real estate)? I personally would not recommend shares in those markets. Like in Armenia, the stock market is very immature with just a handful of listed companies. Let's take Acba, they give you almost 10% on their 2-year time deposit with government guarantee while the shares yield about 6%.
https://amx.am/I tried it for fun, but would not necessarily recommend it at the moment.
There are, however a few VC funds around
https://www.triples.vc/https://www.bigstory.vc/https://formula.vc/https://www.granatusventures.com/https://hiveventures.co/and some angel investors
https://www.linkedin.com/company/angel-investor-club-of-armenia/https://stan.am/https://bana.am/
Would anybody consider them?
In the mean time, I met a guy from the area on the way form the bus to the airplane. The fund is one of the few in the area. The balkan markets are all small, that's why most players cover the whole region. Seems the fund is not that bad.
I decided to go with stocks for now. Your plan sounded interesting to me and I will be following you close from now 🙂
If anyone is interested in a few stories from the pre-internet days of investing in emerging markets, Riches Among The Ruins by Robert P Smith has a few good stories.
Montenegro -> No, bubble waning (see Dubai for next step).
North Cyprus -> Yes because Turkey will eventually become a regional 'micro-super-power' due to demographics and they will become more 'strengthened' against the EU etc so Northern Cyprus will have funds plowed in, and prior contesting etc will disappear due to the then political-economic reality.
Armenia -> No because of ethnic issues that will continue to boil over, in addition political/economical stability in the region around it.
Missed a few.
Nigeria, Kenya, Pakistan, INDIA, > demographics and monsoon belt will be the next economic zone of higher return and bubbles built around the growth -> technically through to the Philippines but factor in demographics of some countries, and then proximity to West-East trade.
Currently looking (with partners) pure investment in East Africa in blockchain related enterprises, if anyone comes across any.
'Oil money' into 'digital Oil'.
*Jamie Diamond now heading to East Africa for investment opportunities -> just read on Bloomberg
Last edited: Sep 17, 2024
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