Argentina - Pros Cons

[wellington]

Big news out of the bargies overnight finally a person that can turn the country around seemingly.

Pros/Cons of residing there?

Places / Locales

Been a buzz word in our home for a while but not serious enough to look into... before anyway.

 

[Don]

wellington said:
Big news out of the bargies overnight finally a person that can turn the country around seemingly.

Pros/Cons of residing there?

Places / Locales

Been a buzz word in our home for a while but not serious enough to look into... before anyway.
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Benefits:
1) Non-residents include: Foreign nationals assigned to work in Argentina for less than five years.
2) Great country to reside temporarily as a nomad without becoming a tax resident
3) beautiful nature with a lot of variety
4) not too expensive

Cons:
1) Argentina is not for people that like the trains to run on time, the electricity lines to always provide power. And it's not for people who can't deal with bureaucracy on a daily basis.
2) (wealth) taxes

 

[Cavaliere]

Amazing news that Milei won! Am very much looking forward to his policies. Argentina has it all. Mountains, beautiful cities, girls, freedom, space, variety of climates, and hopefully soon less bureaucracy, low-taxes and crypto friendliness!

 

[Cavaliere]

Imagine this man being in charge of your country:
Must be an amazing feeling. So excited, really hope we get some major new tax optimization routes. Would love to spend a couple of months per year in Argentina.

 

[latindev]

Cavaliere said:
Amazing news that Milei won! Am very much looking forward to his policies. Argentina has it all. Mountains, beautiful cities, girls, freedom, space, variety of climates, and hopefully soon less bureaucracy, low-taxes and crypto friendliness!
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Wait between 3 to 6 years to see if he is able to change Argentina, I hope he's able to so neighbours countries take note... But is not going to be easy because Milei doesn't have power across the country

 

[Cloudbanck]

latindev said:
Wait between 3 to 6 years to see if he is able to change Argentina, I hope he's able to so neighbours countries take note... But is not going to be easy because Milei doesn't have power across the country
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It's not a binary outcome though, to change Argentina or not. The thing is Argentina has been catastrophically mismanaged since like 1949. Even a change from utterly dismal to just plain bad governance would be a huge improvement, and thanks to Milei there seems to be a chance for unsually good governance. Even if Milei manages to do like 10% of what he wants, it would be really good.

I mean Argentina is populated by people from Spain, Italy and a bit of Germans, and there is no reason it shouldnt be on a similar level of prosperity as those countries. Yet Argentina has a GDP per capita (in constant 2015 USD) of like 13k whereas Italy is at 33k - and Italy is very far from being a well managed country.

 

[latindev]

Cloudbanck said:
It's not a binary outcome though, to change Argentina or not. The thing is Argentina has been catastrophically mismanaged since like 1949. Even a change from utterly dismal to just plain bad governance would be a huge improvement, and thanks to Milei there seems to be a chance for unsually good governance. Even if Milei manages to do like 10% of what he wants, it would be really good.

I mean Argentina is populated by people from Spain, Italy and a bit of Germans, and there is no reason it shouldnt be on a similar level of prosperity as those countries. Yet Argentina has a GDP per capita (in constant 2015 USD) of like 13k whereas Italy is at 33k - and Italy is very far from being a well managed country.
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I know that, I do business with Argentina and follow their situation on a daily basis. Even if he is only able to do one thing (finally eliminate the ARS) the improvement will be huge, but that doesn't mean it will end up giving a good publicity to neighbours because Argentina is used to a big state and because of that same reason Milei doesn't have enough power across the country. That means that if the situation gets better, there is no guaranties people won't vote again for a "state solution" once people start facing the initial issues of moving from that (subsidize gas, transport, food, etc) that we all know they are good long term investment... but elections are every 4 years.

 

[Cloudbanck]

Yeah, 4 years isn't enough. How long time did Lee Kuan Yew need to take Singapore from Africa levels to first world... from 1965 to say 1995, that's 30 years. That was an even lower starting position than Argentina today though, but less in-built big state/socialist systems.

But I dont know how Milei can get 30 years in power without some authoritarian measures (which Lee Kuan Yew also used).

 

[Martin Everson]

wellington said:
Big news out of the bargies overnight finally a person that can turn the country around seemingly.
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This could be a disaster for Argentina.

wellington said:
Pros/Cons of residing there?
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Argentina with a far right populist president this may not end well. All presidential candidates promise the earth but once in office the confines of bilateral agreements, foreign debt, constitution and international obligations etc limits what they actually can achieve. In short terms he may go the way of Trump and Boris Johnson with saying the stuff people love to hear but not actually able to deliver them. I would 100% not want to move there but those that already reside there at least have a false sense of hope that their vote will bring change....lol.

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[wellington]

Martin Everson said:
This could be a disaster for Argentina.



Argentina with a far right populist president this may not end well. All presidential candidates promise the earth but once in office the confines of bilateral agreements, foreign debt, constitution and international obligations etc limits what they actually can achieve. In short terms he may go the way of Trump and Boris Johnson with saying the stuff people love to hear but not actually able to deliver them. I would 100% not want to move there but those that already reside there at least have a false sense of hope that their vote will bring change....lol.
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If he culls the government, disbands the central bank, and dollarizes the economy...

Can't see how it will be bad... will just be a non-corporated US State in the sense.

 

[Don]

wellington said:
If he culls the government, disbands the central bank, and dollarizes the economy...

Can't see how it will be bad... will just be a non-corporated US State in the sense.
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For several countries, it seems to work well.
In addition to five U.S. territories, 11 countries adopted the U.S. dollar as their official currency: Ecuador, El Salvador, Zimbabwe, The British Virgin Islands, The Turks and Caicos, Timor and Leste, Bonaire, Micronesia, Palau, Marshall Islands, and Panama.

 

[Cloudbanck]

Martin Everson said:
This could be a disaster for Argentina.



Argentina with a far right populist president this may not end well.
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He isnt far right in the common sense of the word, i.e. anti-foreigner, conservative values. He is just far right in economic matters. And Milei is definetely not a populist, he is an austrian school economist, he wants to reduce the size of the state, reduce all the goodies the state gives out, and make a lot of government employees unemployed. That's pretty much the opposite of populism.

Martin Everson said:
All presidential candidates promise the earth but once in office the confines of bilateral agreements, foreign debt, constitution and international obligations etc limits what they actually can achieve. In short terms he may go the way of Trump and Boris Johnson with saying the stuff people love to hear but not actually able to deliver them. I would 100% not want to move there but those that already reside there at least have a false sense of hope that their vote will bring change....lol.
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Milei cant be compared with Trump and Boris Johnson, they are super mainstream want to keep status quo in comparison with Milei.

The closest leaders that come to mind are John Cowperthwaite of Hong Kong and Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore (though he started out as a leftie), and to a lesser extent Maggie Thatcher although she was far less radical than Milei but was well versed in the Austrian school ideas.

And yes, it is hard to do dramatic changes, and the senate in Argentina is still controlled by the opposition I believe. Still though, Argentina is so messed up, so there is so much one can do with just the executive power. Just cut all the crazy rules and bureaucracy holding entrepreneurs and individuals back for a starter.

 

[Martin Everson]

wellington said:
If he culls the government, disbands the central bank, and dollarizes the economy...
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Yes he promised all of this just like Biden promised student loan forgiveness etc. Lets wait and see how he will manage the IMF and Chinese. Remember IMF money does not come without strings attached which is often reforms the government had to commit to.

Reality is the biggest teacher in life for those who think they can rip up the rule books without negative consequences. Hope is one hell of a drug sadly....lol.

wellington said:
Can't see how it will be bad... will just be a non-corporated US State in the sense.
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Really? Puerto Rico 😕.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/puerto-ricos-bankruptcy-where-do-things-stand-today/
When it comes to politics a promise is a comfort to a fool sadly.

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Please note my posts should not be taken as financial or tax advice. Please seek professional advice in that respect.

 

[Cloudbanck]

In fairness countries routinely take IMF money and then leading politcians use them to pay their cronies and supporters and for their personal luxury life, and then the country defaults. Yet they keep getting new loans from the IMF and the World Bank. Ex World Bank economist William Easterley has written brilliantly about this.

But when you highly unusually like Milei want to reduce the size of the state and spend a lot less, IMF and Chinese money is a lot less relevant. Ok, existing debts have to be managed, but Im not sure how much Argentina has left since they default all the time. A more key question is to attract foreign private investors, and you do that by well, being credible in showing that Argentina really has changed its ways in terms of respect for rule of law, property rights, no more protectionism, no more capital controls, more economic freedom, no more insane Argentinian bureaucracy, no permits for everything.

 

[Martin Everson]

A president make not the government. A president make not the policies. A president make only the vision for a country. He will work with his team that will tell him the reality at some point. If he wishes to do a Liz Truss budget he can do and his creditors keeping the economy on life support can pull the plugs. What if China removes its swap lines or emergency liquidity support the PBOC have provided Argentina and they are drawing down on? What if IMF holds them to the reforms agreed to - which they likely will?

Again I can only warn about the reality he faces. He is best to try and get small wins here and there but economic policy he does not decide sadly when your a heavy debtor.

Sadly nobody explains this all to the average voter desperate for change. Hence they fall into this trap of populism and ultimately economic chaos if they try and vote for the impossible to achieve.

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Please note my posts should not be taken as financial or tax advice. Please seek professional advice in that respect.

 

[Cavaliere]

He will play the game of "we're not going to be in bed with China promise!" and be showered in greenbacks. You think his win was a coincidence? He was enjoying major support from the US surely.

 

[Cloudbanck]

Martin Everson said:
A president make not the government. A president make not the policies. A president make only the vision for a country. He will work with his team that will tell him the reality at some point. If he wishes to do a Liz Truss budget he can do and his creditors keeping the economy on life support can pull the plugs. What if China removes its swap lines or emergency liquidity support the PBOC have provided Argentina and they are drawing down on? What if IMF holds them to the reforms agreed to - which they likely will?

Again I can only warn about the reality he faces. He is best to try and get small wins here and there but economic policy he does not decide sadly when your a heavy debtor.

Sadly nobody explains this all to the average voter desperate for change. Hence they fall into this trap of populism and ultimately economic chaos if they try and vote for the impossible to achieve.
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Liz Truss made a budget that dramatically worsened the fiscal position, tax increases without cutting spending. Milei wants to cut spending dramtically, so will probably improve the fiscal position even if he also cuts taxes.

And the IMF wants Argentina to reduce the deficit somewhat and reduce some of the (insane) subsidies and pork spending. Milei wants to go way further than the IMF and cut much more - which is exactly what Argentina needs. So meeting IMF reforms isnt really a problem. In fact Argentina in the past typically never did what the IMF wanted and kept spending like crazy, and kept defaulting.

 

[Cavaliere]

Cloudbanck said:
Liz Truss made a budget that dramatically worsened the fiscal position, tax increases without cutting spending. Milei wants to cut spending dramtically, so will probably improve the fiscal position even if he also cuts taxes.

And the IMF wants Argentina to reduce the deficit somewhat and reduce some of the (insane) subsidies and pork spending. Milei wants to go way further than the IMF and cut much more - which is exactly what Argentina needs. So meeting IMF reforms isnt really a problem. In fact Argentina in the past typically never did what the IMF wanted and kept spending like crazy, and kept defaulting.
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The real problem will be whether "congress" will allow him to go as far as he said he would and / or wanted to go.

 

[Martin Everson]

As I always say I will let people find out the hard way. I have no dog in this fight so his success or certain failure is off no concern or consequence to me personally.

Lets see how many of his election pledges he keeps or how quick he backtracks when faced with reality thu&¤#

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Please note my posts should not be taken as financial or tax advice. Please seek professional advice in that respect.

 

[void]

what worse could happen to Argentina? 🙂 they are at the very bottom, hopeless

hopefully he has the balls to follow Bukele somehow, in country this big he would maybe risk his life but could easily become the national hero, there was never an opportunity like this in human history to be able to peacefully save the whole nations

but it's just me, crazy anarchist detached from the reality of the beautiful and well functioning world order...