How would you invest €50k right now?

[369]

FreedomSearcher said:
Why not just put your money in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund like SPY, VOO & IVV?
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Aren't funds the biggest loser in a big downtrend because nearly all of them buy the exact same stocks?

backpacker said:
That's not a bad idea, sure.
However, my preference would be long term (>10 years). In a year from now people will be wondering why they didn't take up this "once in a lifetime chance" on the bond market.
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the peak of bonds has not been reached and it will take some years to reach it as the second high inflation is to come after the deflation which will create a hard landing and in the end money printing .

Mercury said:
True, however over decades you can regularly find in the news (with right arguments) that stock markets are overvalued.

Markets could indeed tank (and not recover for a long period) tomorrow, next month or in 2030... who knows?

"Past performance is no guarantee of future results." goes both ways too.

At the end of the day, when you estimate you have "done your own research" and "due diligence" extensively enough, you may decide that "time in the market beats timing the market". To each his quotes.

Unless you know a reliable fortune teller, investments are matters of substantiated conviction closely linked to your degree of risk aversion.
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The big diffrence of today is that markets have been inflated via money printing.
Currently they are deleveraging.At one point it will go only one direction over years which is down.

Andrew Gooden said:
It's better to invest in government bonds because
Treasury bonds are low-risk investments that are generally risk-free when held to maturity since being backed government makes the odds of default extremely low.
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China and Russia already dumping their bonds.

Last edited: Oct 3, 2023

 

[backpacker]

369 said:
the peak of bonds has not been reached and it will take some years to reach it.
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It might not have been reached yet. But we are very close. It won't take years, otherwise the world economy will collapse - which it won't due to political and monetary intervention.

 

[369]

backpacker said:
It might not have been reached yet. But we are very close. It won't take years, otherwise the world economy will collapse - which it won't due to political and monetary intervention.
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It won't collapse there will be hard recession which will lower inflation automaticly.However it will destroy the economy massivly and will make the crowd poor.At one point when this happens they will distribute controlled money again to their choosen ones (industry 4.0). There is the high possibility of negative interest rates on money for end customers to force them to consume to stimulate the econemy.This will cause an even higher inflation we saw
Stagflation is their goal.
Another issue on bonds because people say here bonds are the most safe category.That was true in the past.
If you see their agendas they plan smart cities and smart governments where real governments doesn't exist anymore in their agendas.
However buying bonds and selling them within few years for the price diffrence should be fine.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/04/29/Enabling-Deep-Negative-Rates-A-Guide-46598

It won't take years, otherwise the world economy will collapse - which it won't due to political and monetary intervention.
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The goal is the transformation of current econemy to local industry 4.0 which will end the global econemy and centralize everything.
Monetary system will fail as thats their goal to implement the new monetary system they agreed back in 2012
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-dominance-could-way-tripolar-182500899.html
Once BRICS start with their own currency the dollar will decrease its value quickly which will cause automaticly high inflation.We are talking here about a 40% value decrease over some years which leads automaticly to high inflation on commodities.

Last edited: Oct 3, 2023

 

[Onassis]

369 said:
Once BRICS start with their own currency
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Will never happen.

 

[Mister Sir]

1) Delicious affordable food with a secret recipe that takes longer than the average food product to be perishable.
2) Very very very attractive exotic polite multi language women....
3) Turning raw materials into something valuable that need many prerequisites of education, talent, skill and rare intuitiveness to create and can't just be re-engineered and copied somehow by a multitude of other wanna-prenuers, engineers, inventors or other creative types....

 

[uranium]

thomasparra said:
You clearly lack knowledge of the basics of economics and finance. I would suggest you to read/watch content around inflation and central bank monetary policies.
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I have been thinking about this and still dont get it
Can someone explain this

uranium said:
No. Inflation is relevant if you invest in treasuries and sp500
To be specific I'm talking about Voo
How come Inflation is not relevant if it is affecting your return when you buy bonds

Inflation causes interest rates to rise, leading to a decrease in value of existing bonds. During times of high inflation, bonds yielding fixed interest rates tend to be less attractive
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Please someone explain this
I don't understand

uranium said:
No. Inflation is relevant if you invest in treasuries and sp500
To be specific I'm talking about Voo
How come Inflation is not relevant if it is affecting your return when you buy bonds

Inflation causes interest rates to rise, leading to a decrease in value of existing bonds. During times of high inflation, bonds yielding fixed interest rates tend to be less attractive
Click to expand...

Please someone explain this
I don't understand

thomasparra said:
Inflation is irrelevant. Its rate does not change if you invest in treasuries, SP500, Bitcoins or sheeps.

S&P could also go to 4000 by EOD effectively netting you 0%. Again, different asset classes, can't compare them both either.
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This part please someone explain this

 

[369]

JPM said the world is not prepared for 7%

 

[thomasparra]

backpacker said:
That's not a bad idea, sure.
However, my preference would be long term (>10 years). In a year from now people will be wondering why they didn't take up this "once in a lifetime chance" on the bond market.
Click to expand...

Yes, LT bonds are interesting right now - they are all above 4.7% from 5 years to even 30 years. But I would not hold funds, solely individual bonds on the secondary market for this purpose.

Right now I am happy with short term treasuries, and stocks but I am focused on long term growth rather than capital preservation at this stage of my life.

uranium said:
I have been thinking about this and still dont get it
Can someone explain this


Please someone explain this
I don't understand


Please someone explain this
I don't understand
This part please someone explain this
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Didn't you tell me "better to leave it here" a few months ago? What don't you understand specifically?

 

[backpacker]

thomasparra said:
But I would not hold funds, solely individual bonds on the secondary market for this purpose.
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If you invest only in Treasuries, this might be the way to go.

However, if you mix it with EM debt or HY, there is a lack of diversification. Ten years ago, when interest rates where low and chances of default where (automatically) also relatively low, this was borderline o.k. .
Today the risk of default has increased exponentially and I would not want to have a large position of a single EM or HY debtor in my portfolio - too risky.
So, to participate from higher yielding debt in the long run, I think it is safer to invest with well-regulated funds.

 

[thomasparra]

backpacker said:
If you invest only in Treasuries, this might be the way to go.

However, if you mix it with EM debt or HY, there is a lack of diversification. Ten years ago, when interest rates where low and chances of default where (automatically) also relatively low, this was borderline o.k. .
Today the risk of default has increased exponentially and I would not want to have a large position of a single EM or HY debtor in my portfolio - too risky.
So, to participate from higher yielding debt in the long run, I think it is safer to invest with well-regulated funds.
Click to expand...

I am not opposed to a global multi country indexing per market weight approach when it comes to bonds but I am generally not interested in bond funds/ETFs for a couple of different reasons. Therefore I prefer to hold treasuries directly and from AA/AA+ countries such as the US.

 

[uranium]

thomasparra said:
Yes, LT bonds are interesting right now - they are all above 4.7% from 5 years to even 30 years. But I would not hold funds, solely individual bonds on the secondary market for this purpose.

Right now I am happy with short term treasuries, and stocks but I am focused on long term growth rather than capital preservation at this stage of my life.

Didn't you tell me "better to leave it here" a few months ago? What don't you understand specifically?
Click to expand...

I read this topic again yesterday and was thinking maybe i missed something
I'm not interested in bonds.
I'm interested in etf
Like Voo
This year Voo achieved 11.5% return
Inflation in USA now is 3.7%
So inflation free profit = 7.8%
What do you think about this?

 

[thomasparra]

uranium said:
I read this topic again yesterday and was thinking maybe i missed something
I'm not interested in bonds.
I'm interested in etf
Like Voo
This year Voo achieved 11.5% return
Inflation in USA now is 3.7%
So inflation free profit = 7.8%
What do you think about this?
Click to expand...

I think you should read some articles on investing 101. You also seem to dissociate ETFs and bonds in a way that they are mutually exclusive but they are not.

The impact of inflation on your personal situation has many variables, and even if you were able to quantify it today, it should generally not be part of your investment decision process unless you hope to time and beat the market, which is as believable as flipping a coin, at least for a non professional investor.

 

[USDT]

What risks and drawbacks do you see in holding all funds in short-term US treasuries for the next 6-18 months?

 

[uranium]

thomasparra said:
I think you should read some articles on investing 101. You also seem to dissociate ETFs and bonds in a way that they are mutually exclusive but they are not.

The impact of inflation on your personal situation has many variables, and even if you were able to quantify it today, it should generally not be part of your investment decision process unless you hope to time and beat the market, which is as believable as flipping a coin, at least for a non professional investor.
Click to expand...

You didn't answer me
I paste here again
This year Voo achieved 11.5% return
Inflation in USA now is 3.7%
So inflation free profit = 7.8%
Can you ignore this 7.8% profit?
It is inflation free profit

 

[Paul Tudor Jones]

369 said:
It won't collapse there will be hard recession which will lower inflation automaticly.However it will destroy the economy massivly and will make the crowd poor.At one point when this happens they will distribute controlled money again to their choosen ones (industry 4.0). There is the high possibility of negative interest rates on money for end customers to force them to consume to stimulate the econemy.This will cause an even higher inflation we saw
Stagflation is their goal.
Another issue on bonds because people say here bonds are the most safe category.That was true in the past.
If you see their agendas they plan smart cities and smart governments where real governments doesn't exist anymore in their agendas.
However buying bonds and selling them within few years for the price diffrence should be fine.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/04/29/Enabling-Deep-Negative-Rates-A-Guide-46598


The goal is the transformation of current econemy to local industry 4.0 which will end the global econemy and centralize everything.
Monetary system will fail as thats their goal to implement the new monetary system they agreed back in 2012
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-dominance-could-way-tripolar-182500899.html
Once BRICS start with their own currency the dollar will decrease its value quickly which will cause automaticly high inflation.We are talking here about a 40% value decrease over some years which leads automaticly to high inflation on commodities.
Click to expand...

Whatever this guy says, always do the opposite and you will enjoy great success in investing.

 

[TheCryptoAnt]

369 said:
JPM said the world is not prepared for 7%
Click to expand...

We are *way* over 7% in certain sectors tho, particularly consumer staples

 

[369]

TheCryptoAnt said:
We are *way* over 7% in certain sectors tho, particularly consumer staples
Click to expand...

its not about consumer loans.

Paul Tudor Jones said:
Whatever this guy says, always do the opposite and you will enjoy great success in investing.
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wish you best of luck you will need it

 

[Dreamy]

Paul Tudor Jones said:
Whatever this guy says, always do the opposite and you will enjoy great success in investing.
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He just sympathizes with putin and other bastards from russia, that's why he is dreaming about stupid ideas like "BRICS".

 

[uranium]

Dreamy said:
He just sympathizes with putin and other bastards from russia, that's why he is dreaming about stupid ideas like "BRICS".
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I suggest you change your nick to realistic

 

[Paul Tudor Jones]

Dreamy said:
He just sympathizes with putin and other bastards from russia, that's why he is dreaming about stupid ideas like "BRICS".
Click to expand...

Russian propaganda is extremely effective.
Just a few scrolls here will show some very intelligent people that fell for cleverly-made agitprop.

It's even funnier when you read that he actually lives in Germany and he basically owes his life to US/NATO forces protecting him from Russia.