Silicon Valley Bank scrambles to reassure clients after 60% stock wipe-out

[denniz07]

So guys, what do you think what are safe banks right now : ) ?
I mean for sure there are too big to fail. But what about smaller banks or lets say just rigions like europe, swiss, asia, or from middle east?
Would you consider brokers like ibkr or swissquate safer ? (since guess they do not lending)
Currently have some exposure to QNB, Société Générale, Sumitomo Mitsui , hope it goes well...

The strange thing is that banks collapse very fast. So credit rating and also stock price is a bad indicator. In Swiss you have Kantonalbanken which are kind of safe, since you have state garantees.

 

[Martin Everson]

denniz07 said:
So guys, what do you think what are safe banks right now : ) ?
Click to expand...

Firstly stay away from any crypto type banks with huge balance sheets. Also there is no safe bank. Peter Schiff would tell you his bank was safe as a 100% reserve bank but look what happened to it 😕. There is simply too many risks to say any bank is truly safe even ZKB for example.

Not even investing in US Treasuries via Treasury Direct bypassing banks is safe. As if debt ceiling is not increased a potential default could happen. Also US government default is not a zero risk probability sadly when politics are at play.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...n-is-just-default-by-another-name/ar-AA18zn1z

In general the way banks are interconnected its difficult to calculate exposure in terms of counter-party risk with the bank you use. You can only diversify where and how you hold your money and have a plan B in case contagion occurs and its get out of control nai¤%.

denniz07 said:
The strange thing is that banks collapse very fast. So credit rating and also stock price is a bad indicator.
Click to expand...

Your right it can be a lagging indicator of a banks health. For example Lehman Brothers was rated "A" by Standard and Poors up to six days prior to its collapse...lol. An "A" rated bank should not collapse in days...period!!!

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/sep/13/lehman-brothers-was-capitalism-to-blame

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Please note my posts should not be taken as financial or tax advice. Please seek professional advice in that respect.

 

[drumtraks]

Martin Everson said:
In general the way banks are interconnected its difficult to calculate exposure in terms of counter-party risk with the bank you use. You can only diversify where and how you hold your money and have a plan B in case contagion occurs and its get out of control nai¤%.
Click to expand...

I find it amazing how financially literate people keep doing the mistake of concentrating assets in one bank alone. Especially startups.

 

[JackAlabama]

denniz07 said:
So guys, what do you think what are safe banks right now : ) ?
I mean for sure there are too big to fail. But what about smaller banks or lets say just rigions like europe, swiss, asia, or from middle east?
Would you consider brokers like ibkr or swissquate safer ? (since guess they do not lending)
Currently have some exposure to QNB, Société Générale, Sumitomo Mitsui , hope it goes well...

The strange thing is that banks collapse very fast. So credit rating and also stock price is a bad indicator. In Swiss you have Kantonalbanken which are kind of safe, since you have state garantees.
Click to expand...

None.
Bitcoin is your safest bank, just need to stomach some vola.

 

[369]

JackAlabama said:
None.
Bitcoin is your safest bank, just need to stomach some vola.
Click to expand...

bitcoin is a bankers product which will be exposed at the end.controlled opposition to catch people like us.Make your money with it but don't belive its any kind of solution

In dubai there are bank accounts which deposit are covered 1:1 with physical gold.However i don't know what the minimum deposit is.In 2013 it was 500k EUR.
I would also call russian banks save and domestic ones from HK,CN,SG,BR
I think swiss banks are safe too.Their debt will be paid with gold which swiss has more than enough

Last edited: Mar 14, 2023

 

[pfser]

I'm afraid it can be another black swan, and there's no safe place, try to diversify your assets as much as possible.

369 said:
bitcoin is a bankers product which will be exposed at the end.controlled opposition to catch people like us.Make your money with it but don't belive its any kind of solution

In dubai there are bank accounts which deposit are covered 1:1 with physical gold.However i don't know what the minimum deposit is.In 2013 it was 500k EUR.
I would also call russian banks save and domestic ones from HK,CN,SG,BR
I think swiss banks are safe too.Their debt will be paid with gold which swiss has more than enough
Click to expand...

Regarding Swiss banks (I know that Robert Kiyosaki is not one to follow in terms of predictions, but be careful)

https://www.newsweek.com/rich-dad-p...-kiyosaki-warns-bigger-collapse-ahead-1787494

 

[Martin Everson]

pfser said:
Regarding Swiss banks (I know that Robert Kiyosaki is not one to follow in terms of predictions, but be careful)

https://www.newsweek.com/rich-dad-p...-kiyosaki-warns-bigger-collapse-ahead-1787494
Click to expand...

These folk are talking a CS collapse into existence know what they are doing 😉. Wonder how many Put options he has.

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Please note my posts should not be taken as financial or tax advice. Please seek professional advice in that respect.

 

[whatname]

The whole US banking sector is rotten, and EU isn't doing much better. Think Wirecard 2.0. Sketchy s**t that is happening.

 

[JackAlabama]

369 said:
bitcoin is a bankers product which will be exposed at the end.controlled opposition to catch people like us.Make your money with it but don't belive its any kind of solution

In dubai there are bank accounts which deposit are covered 1:1 with physical gold.However i don't know what the minimum deposit is.In 2013 it was 500k EUR.
I would also call russian banks save and domestic ones from HK,CN,SG,BR
I think swiss banks are safe too.Their debt will be paid with gold which swiss has more than enough
Click to expand...

The completely incompetent swiss national bank sold gold at its lowest price. They have not what you claim. We do not live in being secretly gold covered fantasy land.

However, banking at an institution which is widely used by the locals will likely result in what has now happened with SVB and result in a bailout by money printing. If it applies to foreigners, is another question, but it seems highly likely.
So ubs, cs, the cantonal banks and the big regional banks might be ok.
Banking at an private banking house which no local has hardly heard of and it is deemed as "a place for the evil rich" might lead to losses. Again, speculation.

 

[FantomOffshore]

pfser said:
I'm afraid it can be another black swan, and there's no safe place, try to diversify your assets as much as possible.




Regarding Swiss banks (I know that Robert Kiyosaki is not one to follow in terms of predictions, but be careful)

https://www.newsweek.com/rich-dad-p...-kiyosaki-warns-bigger-collapse-ahead-1787494
Click to expand...

Robert Kyosaki his company filed for banktruptcy last week.

369 said:
bitcoin is a bankers product which will be exposed at the end.controlled opposition to catch people like us.
Click to expand...

I would find a criminal creator like Le Roux (absolute mastermind) far more plausible than shadowy bankers who had the time to secretly build a highly technical product based on math far beyond any economist, let alone your average banker, to catch "people like us".

Martin Everson said:
Lehman Brothers
Click to expand...

And if I remember the course of events right, two of Bear Stearns hedge-funds imploded more than a year prior to the Lehman collapse. Timing or predicting the course of events is extremely hard without insider info.

A strategy I like in times like these is holding most of my non-crypto money in Altria, which is better than cash imo, and waiting for high volatility events to happen at which point I sell some Altria to buy distressed securities.

Meta last year was an incredible opportunity, I really thank the Youtubers for bashing their VR platform. One or two of those 80/100% plays a year and you basically never have to work lol (which carries all kinds of dangers in itself).

Last edited: Mar 15, 2023

 

[369]

JackAlabama said:
The completely incompetent swiss national bank sold gold at its lowest price. They have not what you claim. We do not live in being secretly gold covered fantasy land.

However, banking at an institution which is widely used by the locals will likely result in what has now happened with SVB and result in a bailout by money printing. If it applies to foreigners, is another question, but it seems highly likely.
So ubs, cs, the cantonal banks and the big regional banks might be ok.
Banking at an private banking house which no local has hardly heard of and it is deemed as "a place for the evil rich" might lead to losses. Again, speculation.
Click to expand...

In switzerland there is so much gold stored it will be easy for them to pay all debt once the new monetary system will be established.
Remember retailers gold price won't be gold price between central banks 😉

I would find a criminal creator like Le Roux (absolute mastermind) far more plausible than shadowy bankers who had the time to secretly build a highly technical product based on math far beyond any economist, let alone your average banker, to catch "people like us".
Click to expand...

Its not about plausibility but facts.
Its no secret in the inner circle who created it since 2011.
Also if you have any logic thinking and some knowledge what happened to projects or people who tried to create an alternative currency to fiat they have been instantly busted and put into jail.
Governments had so many opportunities to kill bitcoin but they never did.Instead they even pushed it forward when in public saying at the beginning beh to bitcoin.
I mean even without the information of the creator isn't it so obvious that bitcoin is clearly not their enemy when big banks joined bitcoin already in 2010 😀

Last edited: Mar 15, 2023

 

[backpacker]

denniz07 said:
So guys, what do you think what are safe banks right now : ) ?
I mean for sure there are too big to fail. But what about smaller banks or lets say just rigions like europe, swiss, asia, or from middle east?
Would you consider brokers like ibkr or swissquate safer ? (since guess they do not lending)
Currently have some exposure to QNB, Société Générale, Sumitomo Mitsui , hope it goes well...

The strange thing is that banks collapse very fast. So credit rating and also stock price is a bad indicator. In Swiss you have Kantonalbanken which are kind of safe, since you have state garantees.
Click to expand...

Why bother about all of this ... .
Put your money in a bunch of well diversified mutual funds/ETF's. In a bank account I would not keep much more than what is insured by FDIC and the like.

 

[Martin Everson]

JackAlabama said:
However, banking at an institution which is widely used by the locals will likely result in what has now happened with SVB and result in a bailout by money printing.
Click to expand...

Bail-out won't happen in Switzerland. A bail-in will happen as explained by Finma. Zero chance they would throw Swiss tax payer money at these criminal enterprises self inflicted damage wounds.

Swizterland Banks' recovery and resolution planning

In EU it will be same as they have EU BRRD directive meaning bail-in not bail-out. All these regulations came in after the last financial crisis. So just be ready to take a haircut or receive garbage shares in a bank that's failed above 100k deposit protection.

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Please note my posts should not be taken as financial or tax advice. Please seek professional advice in that respect.

 

[JackAlabama]

Martin Everson said:
Bail-out won't happen in Switzerland. A bail-in will happen as explained by Finma. Zero chance they would throw Swiss tax payer money at these criminal enterprises self inflicted damage wounds.

Swizterland Banks' recovery and resolution planning

In EU it will be same as they have EU BRRD directive meaning bail-in not bail-out. All these regulations came in after the last financial crisis. So just be ready to take a haircut or receive garbage shares in a bank that's failed above 100k deposit protection.
Click to expand...

That has yet to be seen. 😉
They can print money to do it so the tax payer will not notice it. Easy game and it saves a lot of anger.
However a private bank can be made easily made gone as no one of the locals use it.
Would not give anything on what finma writes.

I still hold my statement:
However, banking at an institution which is widely used by the locals will likely result in what has now happened with SVB and result in a bailout by money printing.

First its better to hold Bitcoin.
Then its better to hold Tether usdt.
Then banks at the very last place 😉

 

[Martin Everson]

JackAlabama said:
First its better to hold Bitcoin.
Then its better to hold Tether usdt.
Then banks at the very last place 😉
Click to expand...

Hope your not being serious here?

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Please note my posts should not be taken as financial or tax advice. Please seek professional advice in that respect.

 

[backpacker]

JackAlabama said:
Would not give anything on what finma writes.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately.
FINMA is not exactly the most trustworthy organization ....

 

[JackAlabama]

Martin Everson said:
Hope your not being serious here?
Click to expand...

I am very serious with this. Market tests over audits is my well known mantra.

backpacker said:
Unfortunately.
FINMA is not exactly the most trustworthy organization ....
Click to expand...

Yah sadly.
Now calls are made to the snb according to FT. Lets see how that goes. Id expect a bailout by the genious snb.
https://www.ft.com/content/0324c5a6-cecd-4fb3-85b3-7cdc99a33e4e

 

[backpacker]

JackAlabama said:
Now calls are made to the snb according to FT. Lets see how that goes. Id expect a bailout by the genious snb.
Click to expand...

This is highly likely and would fit into the current sentiment in Switzerland.
I expect some sort of "sophisticated" bailout where shareholders will loose most (not all) of their money. The latter might already have been discussed with Saudi Arabia and is one reason why they now officially state that they do not want to increase their stake.

😛 As expected -> Swiss National Bank says it will provide Credit Suisse with liquidity if necessary ki#¤%

Last edited: Mar 15, 2023

 

[FantomOffshore]

369 said:
In switzerland there is so much gold stored it will be easy for them to pay all debt once the new monetary system will be established.
Remember retailers gold price won't be gold price between central banks 😉


Its not about plausibility but facts.
Its no secret in the inner circle who created it since 2011.
Also if you have any logic thinking and some knowledge what happened to projects or people who tried to create an alternative currency to fiat they have been instantly busted and put into jail.
Governments had so many opportunities to kill bitcoin but they never did.Instead they even pushed it forward when in public saying at the beginning beh to bitcoin.
I mean even without the information of the creator isn't it so obvious that bitcoin is clearly not their enemy when big banks joined bitcoin already in 2010 😀
Click to expand...

So what is your prediction, then, if you are so sure? You sound like a guy who is awfully convicted of his case, which is completely fine. But please, just, if you talk tough, put your money where your mouth is. You are long or short, what exactly?

 

[uplana]

Well, well, I don't think Credit Suisse will go anywhere... that is my prediction.

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