Investment Matrix - Discussion for Doomsday

JohnLocke

OffshoreCorpTalk owner
Dec 29, 2008
14,770
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DeflationInflationCurrency ReformBoomValue Storage
Equity Funds ETF's
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Building Savings Contract
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Bitcoins
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Diamonds
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Foreign Currency
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Gold
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Real Estate
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Account Balance
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Art
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Land / Farmland
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Life Insurance
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Antique Cars
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Platinum
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Raw Materials
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Collections
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Owe / Debts
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Silver
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Government Bonds (EU)
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Government Bonds
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Exchange Articles
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Watches
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Forrest
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Whisky
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Short Resume for the different investment items.

CASH
How does the money come about?
Only a fraction of the money in Europe come from the ECB's printing press and the National banks. The majority of CASH arises from nothing! YEAH, you don't believe that, you think you read wrong? Saving Banks and Private Banks are able using “Giral money creation” doing so, new money is created. This money is called FIAT-MONEY

All what the banks need to arise money from nothing is a reserve ratio of 1 percent of the credit line in the central banks.

Simple example: If a bank establishes a credit line of EUR 100.000 then they only need to have 1000 euro in Cash or coins deposited by the ECB (European Central Bank). This means that for every Euro they can create 12,5 and up to 100 times Giral money.

Another simple example: You take a loan with a bank, 500.000 Euro. The bank only needs to send 5.000 Euro to the ECB and this way create 495.000 Euro from nothing!
I hope you get the bigger picture of all of this.

A last note why money in your account is insane:
  • It is not your money
  • You don't get any interest
  • In emergency case you can't access your money
  • You are depending on a 3rd party
  • Friendly advice never leave too much money in your account.
Recommendation:
Before the end of the euro, we expect not only a significant phase of negative interest rates in the euro zone (cash is sensible here, since there are no negative interest rates), but also deflation.

In deflation, all investments fall apart from cash. It is therefore advisable to have enough cash up your sleeve in order to buy tangible assets in a countercyclical manner in deflation.

No matter whether real estate, companies, stocks, precious metals, art, cars or whatever. In deflation, cash is king.

Keep up to 20 percent of your assets in cash. It has long been said: Cash is King - and when we say cash, we mean cash! Do not park your cash reserves in your accounts, but in the form of physical banknotes in safes and lockers

Although this does not generate any interest like daily allowances, at least no negative interest gnaws at your assets.

And in crisis situations, where access to accounts can be blocked faster than you can say "Yikes!" you can always get your money. Cash enables you to seize opportunities in individual investment classes immediately. You can also use cash to make counter-cyclical purchases for investments that have already been made. This strategy forms one of the foundations for the preservation of your assets in times of economic and political upheaval, historic debt highs and creeping devaluation

Even if the cash is demonized by politics and the financial world, a certain amount of cash is elementary. Even if the financial world does not go under, but only the banks and their ATMs remain closed for a few days, you will appreciate the cash.

Would you like to invest in CHF?
No, you don't want to do that, why? Because, for years Switzerland has been the name for safe harbor investments and to store your money, time has changed, since 2017 Switzerland has complied with the Automatic Tax Information Exchange program which mean, all bank accounts get reported to the local tax authorities in foreign countries. Most large investments are already moved to Singapore, Caribbean and the USA. Moreover, Switzerland has made a 450 billion CHF investment in EURO and applied a negative interest of 0,75%. On top of that they are printing new money, astonishing 793 billion CHF did they invest in bonds and stocks.

Real Assets Protect your assets!
For hundreds of years has real assets proofed to retain its value. In every Financial or Economical Crises, it retains its value.

Advice get out of paper values and get into Real Assets. Make investments in something you know about and in best case something you can feel and touch. Investments in real assets which are limited by math or the nature are the best investments one can do.

To implement wealth legs!
Like in any financial- or Economic crisis different wealth legs are destroyed, that's why you need to implement many wealth legs, so you are strong like an old tree.
If you assume, like we do, that the EURO system will collapse soon then all your paper investments are worth nothing. Everything that is controlled by 3rd parties should be replaced by something you can touch and is not dependent on the EURO SYSTEM.

Below is what I would call the perfect asset protection:
  • Up to 30 percent precious metals
  • Up to 10 percent Diamonds
  • Up to 30 percent debt-free real estate
  • Up to 15 percent into Forest, Land, fields, meadows
  • Up to 15 percent into stocks (mines, raw materials, water, digitization)
  • Up to Exotics (Whisky, Art, Antique cars, Watches)
  • Up to 5 percent Bitcoin
  • Up to 20 percent Cash (for the Deflation) after that, 0 percent in the Hyperinflation
  • Up to 2 percent Foreign Currency
  • Up to 3 percent government bonds (speculative)
Furthermore, we advise to invest into food and exchange items. No one is predicting doomsday, but it's always good in such extreme situations to have enough with food and exchange items, just in case.

Stocks
The secret of the stock exchange business is to recognize what the average citizen believes the average citizen is doing.

John Maynard Keynes
Click to expand...

Contrary to popular belief, we don't always think stocks are solid assets. No question about it: shares are securitized shares in companies. And companies usually have real assets in the form of real estate, buildings, plants, machines, vehicles or inventories. In addition, there are often property rights such as patents or trademark rights. All of this can be assessed transparently on the balance sheet, but can also be manipulated through creative accounting (see Enron)

In addition, there are companies like Google and Facebook that currently generate gigantic monopoly profits from algorithms protected by patent law, but that have little or nothing besides these zeros and ones (as well as trendy company headquarters in Silicon Valley).

Why good stocks are still real assets.
Nonetheless, shares are justified in a cleverly diversified and balanced property portfolio - provided that some qualitative criteria are met. As I said, shares are shares in companies. Without their productive and innovative work, economic progress would be impossible.

Criteria for stock selection
Acquire:
  • exclusively shares in companies that have a solid and forward-looking business model
  • Shares in companies with low debt, an attractive dividend and - above all - a clearly recognizable current undervaluation
  • only stocks of companies that you know and whose business model you really understand.

BITCOIN
Even if you have no idea or don't think of bitcoin, please read this section.

One would have to write a book on this subject, the Bitcoin could be one of the greatest revolutions.

If you've heard of Bitcoin in the past few years, then mostly negative. Bitcoin is a child of the 2008 financial crisis. It was created in response to the misconduct, scandals, and failure of the financial industry and our monetary system by a certain Satoshi Nakamoto.

We first came into contact with Bitcoin in 2011 through a customer and acquaintance. We were asked what we think of this mysterious money from the Internet. To us, the idea of having digital money sounded absurd and therefore absurd, and we dismissed it as nonsense.

I printed out the bitcoin white paper and started reading it. Already after the first page I was wide awake and sitting up in bed. With every page, I was more and more tied to Nakamoto's statements. After completing the eight pages, I had goose bumps and knew that Bitcoin has the potential to change the world.

One embarks on a never ending journey through the history of money, fiscal policy, mathematics, game theory, cryptography and computer science. You will have read many headlines about Bitcoin. It was a mania, a tulip bubble, Bitcoin would soon disappear or be banned. However, Bitcoin still appears to exist. And not only that, it
grows and even gets bigger. Why is that?

Bitcoin facts
  • Bitcoin is the longest-serving and most stable blockchain - it has been active since January 3, 2009
  • It has never been hacked and has been running 99.9 percent since the beginning.
  • It is a decentralized peer-to-peer network with around 14,000 full nodes.
  • Bitcoin is thermally limited to 21 million coins by a cryptographic algorithm.
  • Bitcoin is the first digitally limited asset.
  • 18 million have already been mined (86 percent of all available bitcoins)
  • The last Bitcoin is produced in 2140.
  • A block is regenerated every 10 minutes and the finder of the block is rewarded with 12.5 bitcoins.
  • The reward is halved every 210,000 blocks (approximately every 4 years). This is called halving.
  • The next halving is in May 2020, when there are only 6.25 bitcoins every 10 minutes to find a block.

The Bitcoin system is intrinsically deflationary and not based on debt!

Myths and bitcoin
Most Bitcoin critics either see their skins floating away or have little or no idea what Bitcoin actually is. The media are also throwing up a lot of nebulae and half-truths about Bitcoin, so that when people hear about Bitcoins for the first time, they fall into pre-built thought patterns before they even try to really understand Bitcoin. The more something is shot, the more it should spark your interest and you should look into it.

Bitcoin is destroying the environment
Bitcoin destroys the environment through its enormous hunger for energy, is a frequently quoted statement by people who are usually sitting in a skyscraper that is illuminated day and night and is air-conditioned around the clock.

Why does Bitcoin need energy? Bitcoin mining is the backbone of the Bitcoin network. So-called miners use highly specialized computer chips to secure the network and to confirm transactions. For this, they receive a fixed reward of bitcoins for each block.

The more people participate in these mining operations, the more secure and secure the network is. Operating these mining chips costs electricity and energy.
In return, however, it is also clear that the less a miner pays for electricity, the more profitable the undertaking is. This has led to an increasing number of miners relying on renewable energies and some of them in the most remote areas of the world. Electricity from a hydropower plant in the rear of Mongolia is cheaper than in central London. Studies have shown that 74.1 percent of the network rely on the network and thus certainly do not contribute to the release of climate-damaging gases.

Bitcoin miners are not only increasingly relying on climate-neutral energy sources, but are also constantly looking for new, innovative ways to obtain electricity even more cheaply and actively help to research more sustainable ways of generating electricity.

If that still doesn't convince you: Bitcoin still uses significantly less energy compared to today's banking system, gold mining operations or the huge bureaucratic government apparatus

Bitcoin is for criminals.
Attempts are often made to give the impression that Bitcoin is only used to buy drugs, launder money or finance terrorism. But the reality looks different. According to various studies, around $ 2 trillion a year is generated from illegal activities. For comparison, all cryptocurrencies don't even have a market cap of $ 300 billion. Banks, on the other hand, have been fined hundreds of billions for illegal activities in the past decade alone.

Bitcoin, cash offers the possibility to interact completely anonymously, while Bitcoin offers a maximum of pseudo anonymity. The currency of choice for criminals is the dollar in cash. In contrast to Bitcoin transactions offer 100 percent transparency and can be viewed globally at any time. Doesn't sound like the best criminal tool, does it?

Just as the use of VPNs and other tools can blur traces on the Internet, Bitcoin also offers opportunities to protect your privacy. Still, it's nowhere near as anonymous as cash.

Ultimately, Bitcoin is a new form of money, and money will always be used for illegal purposes.

Who invented it? Not the Swiss, but the CIA.
This question can probably never be answered with 100% certainty. Satoshi Nakamoto, the inventor, remains unknown to this day. However, as is often claimed, Bitcoin did not arise out of nothing, quite the contrary.

The Cypherpunks, a group of Internet activists who are particularly committed to liberal ideals and the protection of individual privacy and freedom, predict many problems and challenges in the digital age. Since the 1990s, they have been dreaming of a digital money system that cannot be controlled and monitored by the state.
Bitcoin is a result of exactly those experiments and projects. Bitcoin has demonstrably not fallen from the sky, but stood on the shoulders of giants. In his white paper, Satoshi himself quotes numerous precursors to Bitcoin, including Adam Backs Hashcash (1997) and Wei Dais B-Money (1998).

Satoshi Nakamoto's accomplishment is not about achieving new technological breakthroughs for Bitcoin, rather he has partially reconnected existing systems for 20 years and created Bitcoin from them.

Now, of course, it cannot be ruled out at this point that secret services such as the CIA or NSA have also carried out this step. As you know, intelligence agencies employ some of the most talented hackers and mathematicians. What would be the motivation behind such an intelligence operation? Control.

And this is where the story of Nasa agent Satoshi Nakamoto begins to crack. Should total control of a digital cash system be the reason why a decentralized open source computer network is created, over which one loses control?

Because that's exactly what happened. Even US MPs at the Libra hearings before the US Congress admitted that Bitcoin cannot be banned or stopped by the state. The Chinese government can sing a song about it.


Bitcoin is not controlled by anyone. The code is publicly available online and has been unsuccessfully checked for potential back doors by thousands of independent programmers. Even if there were back doors or other code errors, they could be corrected at any time.

In addition, bitcoin had little value in its early years and was only supported by a few developers. A state operation aimed at creating a new monetary system would have received greater resources.

In short, we'll probably never know who really created Bitcoin, but even if it came from intelligence operations, which we don't believe, they have lost control of Bitcoin.

continued on next post!
 
Bitcoin doesn't work without electricity!

In the event of a power failure, Bitcoin can no longer be used, critics like to bring up, often as the last argument. Now a regional power outage in no way affects the global Bitcoin network, in the worst case they have to postpone their visit to the supermarket. (Incidentally, in the event of a power failure, the supermarket would probably close and not accept any form of money.)

But what about a global power outage? Now if something like this really happens, your pending Bitcoin transaction will be the least of your worries. In a horror scenario in which the electricity fails across several days, we would quickly switch to a pure exchange society.

Not even gold and silver would probably be accepted here anymore, because then it is a question of naked survival, and goods that ensure direct survival are most valuable.

In addition, it would be enough if a computer was still powered anywhere in the world, and the Bitcoin network would still be alive, while the digital money in their bank literally disappeared into a dark hole.

And last but not least, the ultimate clue: Bitcoin transactions can be sent via radio waves that would not disappear even during a global power outage.

Summary
Bitcoin is the scarce, digital object in the world. It is rare like silver and gold and can be sent over the Internet, radio and satellite.

This digital rarity has value! But how much? In this chapter, the rarity was quantified using the stock-to-flow model. This was used to model the value of Bitcoin.

There is a statistically significant connection between stock-to-flow and market value. The likelihood that this connection was created by chance is close to zero.

What gives additional confidence in the model:
  • Gold and silver, which represent completely different markets, are correctly represented by the Bitcoin SF model.
  • There seems to be an exponential relationship.
  • The model predicts a Bitcoin market value of 1 billion Dollar after the next halving in May 2020, which would correspond to a BTC price of $ 55,000 per bitcoin. (This coincides with our models that predict a fair price value of $ 42,000).
  • So by 2021/2022 we will see if the model works and is right.
Recommendation
For the first time, with Bitcoin we have a democratic, decentralized, non-debt-based, deflationary, limitless, censorship-free money system and a digital store of value.
Everyone should own Bitcoin. Everyone should invest and then see it as a lottery ticket. If something is good for the masses, it will always prevail - that was true for gold in the past and for Bitcoin in the future. We are firmly convinced of this.

Bitcoin elegantly converts energy and time into the only existing digital asset that is limited in quantity. It is the best form of money the world may have ever seen.
We believe that in a few decades, Bitcoin may be the largest asset class in the world, maybe just behind the global real estate market.

We see four driving factors:
  1. Authoritarian and totalitarian regimes, which want to monitor their citizens more and more extensively and increasingly deprive them of all their freedoms, will serve as a great catalyst for alternative systems.
  2. Governments around the world will print new money more and more quickly. The cost of generating new fiat money is practically zero. Metaphorically speaking, it is just a push of a button. More and more people will ask, where do I save my wealth? In a system that is unlimited, or in a disinflationary system that is limited in serine?
  3. Investment emergency and price bubbles in other investment classes. Just imagine what happens to the price of Bitcoin when pension funds or hedge funds, but also citizens, realize that the age of limited values is beginning and Bitcoin is part of it. If only 1 or 5 percent of the spread were invested in Bitcoin, our price target would have been reached and exceeded overnight.
  4. A bank extinction, the end of our monetary order accompanied by a loss of trust in the systems.
    Buy a couple of Santoshi's for 10 or 50 euros. If bitcoin, which we don't expect, actually becomes worthless, it's bitter, but you haven't lost any sum.
    If Bitcoin follows our forecast or even Plan B's, you will be happy to be there. Since bitcoin has not yet experienced a real crisis and recession, we do not know how it will behave. Will bitcoin sell off and go down in a deflation just like stocks, real estate and other values, or will it be countercyclical?
Bitcoin definitely does not correlate with common investments, politics and central banks. for this reason alone, you should place part of your assets as a speculative counter bet in Bitcoin. Swim against the tide, be part of this monetary revolution from the start.

Those who want to invest can do so with 5 percent of their assets as a counterweight.

DIAMONDS

Diamonds have been sought after, valued and rare for thousands of years. People have always been said to have magical powers and many kings, emperors and popes have their crowns covered with glittering stones. The diamond has excellent and unique properties: it is the hardest natural material and has the greatest value density in the smallest space. 1 carat is 0.2 grams.

A comparison: 100,000 euros in gold weigh over 2 kilograms. A diamond of the highest quality worth 100,000 euros weighs just 2.2 carats (= 0.44 grams)!

Diamonds are imperishable and more mobile than any other property. Diamonds have always been and will continue to be the escape currency par excellence.

Like precious metals, diamonds can still be purchased in the anonymous table shop. However, with the shortcoming that 19 percent (Germany) VAT applies to diamonds. The purchase price is therefore all the more important.

The diamond market is far less volatile than the securities and commodities markets, since the diamond trade is always physical, in which the diamonds still go from hand to hand. A quick purchase and sale within a few seconds, as in the stock exchange business, is impossible in the diamond business. Since daily price fixing for diamonds is also not possible and there are no futures contracts on diamonds, large financial investors can hardly have any speculative influence on price formation, as is possible with gold, for example.

Since diamonds have always been coveted as gemstones, there is constant demand that is almost independent of the world financial market. Diamonds also behaved countercyclically during the financial crisis.

The price of high-quality diamonds has steadily increased over the past 50 years. Since 1960, the diamond price has increased on average by 4.3 percent a year. The price for first-class diamonds (investment diamonds) from 1960 to today more than tenfold! The short economic downturn trends have never been able to permanently reduce the value of diamonds, among other things because the worldwide supply of high-quality diamonds is becoming increasingly scarce and the promotion of diamonds is technically more complex and therefore more expensive. In addition, the demand for diamonds is also increasing steadily in the emerging countries.

diamonds-rise1960.gif



The value stability and mobility of diamonds are historically documented in times of crisis.

Profits from private sales transactions are tax-free in Germany after a holding period of twelve months. There is no property tax on diamonds.

A huge advantage of diamonds is that they have never been banned!

Recommendation
It makes sense to invest up to 10 percent in diamonds to secure wealth. Diamonds offer themselves as protection against crises and inflation as well as for risk diversification. They are a mobile store of value that can be liquidated at any time.

Buying a diamond is not difficult. It has a few rules, namely the end of the 4 C's:
  • Carat - weight (ideally: 0.3 to 0.33, 05 to 0.53, 101 to 1.03, 2.01 and so on,
  • color - recommended: best color D (ultra-fine white) to G
  • Clarity - purity (recommended: flawless (IF or F),
  • Cut - recommended: excellent.
We recommend two other Cs:
  • Certificate from the Gemological Institute of America (GIA),
  • Confidence - good, reputable dealer
The first four Cs can all be found in the fifth C (certificate).

Sample GIA Certificate:
GIA-certifikát-k-diamantu.jpg



This must be from the GIA institute! With this certificate, diamonds are the best tradable worldwide and are accepted everywhere. It also guarantees that the diamonds come from legally and ethically sound sources and are in accordance with the> Kimberley Process <conflict-free origin.

There are also other criteria that are noted on the GIA certificate: fluorescence (here should be NONE), polish (excellent) and symmetry (excellent).

The specialty of GIA-certified diamonds is that each individual diamond has its own number, which is even lasered into the stone on the rondiste.
A reputable diamond dealer should also take back the diamond you bought from him. Do not buy a diamond from a retailer who only promises to help you sell the diamond.

GOLD
Gold has been money for over 5,000 years! Store of value, anchor of value, stable in value. The ancient Egyptians called it the "flesh of the gods."

People have always trusted gold. It is limited by nature. All central banks own it - even today, even though we have not had a gold-backed monetary system since 1971. All people worldwide know that this shimmering yellow metal is noble and valuable. Gold protects against inflation, against money experiments of an escalating central bank policy, and it is countercyclical.

It is not just a store of value, but above all a store of trust, precious metals have survived crises, crashes, currency reforms, state bankruptcies, wars, and dictatorships.

Gold is a corrosion-resistant metal that is not attacked by air, water and acids. It has a high value density, is extremely stretchy and is one of the best conductors of electricity and heat. 1 gram of gold makes a wire 3.7 kilometers long! There is currently 25.1 grams of gold per person on Earth, that is, with one troy ounce (31.1 grams) you have already reached your target and call more gold your own than would be mathematically available with equal distribution per capita.

The amount of all gold in the world that has ever been mined is 195,000 tons and fits into a cube with an edge length of 21.70 meters.
Approximately 3,300 tons are added annually. However, demand is significantly higher - especially since the 2008 financial crisis as a crisis-proof investment. The difference is compensated with old stocks and recycled gold.

Gold does not pay interest and does not generate a return!
True, but not money either! On the contrary, now you even must pay penalty interest for money in the account and if it is up to the IMF and ECB chief Christine Lagarde, cash. Therefore, gold is even better than money because it is cheaper, older, more proven, indestructible. Gold is the ultimate life insurance for the savings!

You can't eat gold!
The myth that gold cannot be eaten is widespread. That is wrong! Ask the French footballer Franck Ribery about his 1,200-euro gold steak.
You can actually eat gold in the form of gold leaf, gold chocolates, gold water (spice liqueur with gold leaf) and much more. Regardless of this, our recommendation expressly does not primarily focus on the delicacy of gold, but rather on gold as a proven asset anchor in stormy times.

Gold becomes worthless because billions of tons of gold lie in the sea and on asteroids.
Yes, that may be, but salvage is either impossible or costs a multiple of the gold price.

Gold is useless.
Not correct! Gold is used in many ways. In addition to securing assets in the form of investment gold and jewelry, gold is used in industry, for example in smartphones, computers, and satellites. Around 10 percent of the mined gold goes into the production of electronic goods and technical devices.

Because of its properties, gold is also used in medicine. Gold is non-toxic and corrosion resistant. In addition, it has a material resistance to water and acid (tooth fillings).

Gold is falling in deflation
Myth: It is always said that deflation sells everything, including gold. That is not true! Deflation phases of the past and the development of gold, silver, and raw materials:

  • 1814 - 1830: gold 100 percent, silver 89 percent, raw materials: -50 percent.
  • 1864 - 1897: gold 40 percent, silver 27 percent, raw materials_ +65 percent
  • 1929-1933: Gold 44 percent, silver -5 percent, raw materials: -31 percent
  • 2008: Gold 6 percent, silver -23 percent, raw materials -24 percent

What if gold is banned?
Gold is the enemy of governments - at least as long as they operate with uncovered paper currencies. With gold, citizens can still pull money out of the banking cycle and talk badly about inflation and the media, probably with the intention of taking away the historically grown, deeply rooted trust in gold. You have already read some of the arguments above that we could refute.

The IMF even insults gold as a crisis accelerator, banks say that gold does not bring returns, and states ban and confiscate it in an emergency. But what should make it clear to every reader what gold is! If states view it as dangerous (indeed it is dangerous - but only for greedy politicians, not for gold owners) and feel compelled to ban it, this only proves the real power and unique features of gold.

Gold bans have always existed. From antiquity to modern times. Incidentally, also silver bans. It is often incorrectly claimed that silver has never been banned. That is wrong! Also platinum. You must never forget that when states and politicians are desperate, they start desperate actions. And not only in dictatorships, no, even "clean" democracies like to resort to a gold ban in extreme cases.

In ancient Egypt, gold was reserved for the pharaohs and holy priests because it was considered divine. Gold and silver was banned in Sparta and Julius Caesar tried to contain the debt crisis in the Roman Empire. Even in faraway China, the possession of the two money metals was prohibited in the Empire after the first uncovered paper money system was installed in 1273.

This happened after a gold and silver-backed monetary system failed, which in turn was due to the rulers' uncontrolled rage to spend. What followed was the natural cycle of any uncovered monetary system:

the redistribution from the producers to the powerful via inflation and ultimately currency reform, so you can say it right: our money system - the uncovered paper money - has been unsuccessful since 1273!

The question of how gold bans were implemented in modern times is exciting. In the 20th century we had gold bans in:
  • the Soviet Union: 1918 - 1989
  • Germany (Weimar Republic): 1923 - March 1931
  • Germany: July 1931 - 1951 (Federal Republic); 1955 (GDR)
  • USA: 1933-1974
  • France: 1936-1937
  • China: 1949 - 1982
  • Poland: 1950 -1989
  • India: 1963-1990
  • Great Britain: 1966 ”“ 1971
In most cases, smaller quantities could be kept. Until 1931 there was a free amount of up to 10 gold marks in Germany, then from 1931 up to 20,000 Reichsmarks, which was then reduced to 1,000 Reichsmarks in the same year and later to only 200 Reichsmarks. In the USA there was an exemption limit of 100 Dollars, which was 5 ounces of gold at the time. This spared the general population.

However, lockers were also opened and emptied in the USA. Anyone who provided no or incorrect information was expropriated without compensation. With voluntary supply, there was $ 20.67 per ounce of gold. In 1934 the government raised the gold price to $ 35.00 per troy ounce. The citizens who followed the order missed an appreciation gain of 69 percent.

From 1961, the US ban also applied to gold held abroad! Rare collector coins were not affected.

By 1973, private gold ownership was affected by restrictions in over 120 countries around the world. Most restrictions were then lifted in connection with the end of the Bretton Woods system, which was dominated by the gold-backed dollar. The gold bans in many socialist countries continued until the end of the Eastern Bloc in 1989.

To sum up, one has to say: gold or precious metal bans have never really worked. There were raids in the Weimar Republic, for example, which were not particularly successful. A large part of the obligation to surrender was also not met. The same was true for the United States. Here it is assumed that two thirds of the gold owners have kept their gold despite the draconian threats of punishment - in concrete terms, up to 10 years in prison and a fine of $ 10,000 (today's value around $ 200,000). The black market and private trade flourished. Gold was valued and traded 50 to 100 percent above the set price.

Collective coins or gold coins capable of being traded were often also not affected, since these were considered to be legal tender.
In the Weimar Republic, the possession of foreign currencies such as dollars, pounds and many others was also prohibited. In Argentina, foreign currency accounts were forcibly exchanged for pesos in the case of state bankruptcy and then canceled only by 29 and finally by a total of 74.

Of course, gold, silver, platinum, but also everything else could be banned at any time in the course of financial repression. Before that, however, there will be some other coercive measures from the torture chamber of over-indebted countries that will warn you. In general, it can be stated from the above examples that countries struggling to survive mostly fail not because of a lack of imagination regarding reprisals, but rather because of their enforceability. In the current system, a ban would also contradict the principles of equality. States or central banks are allowed to buy precious metals - and citizens are not?

The largest gold owner in the world
The largest gold owner worldwide is neither the billionaire Warren Buffet nor Dagobert Duck. They are the world's central banks. Yes, you read correctly. Those who print paper money and publicly denigrate gold on almost every occasion have even the greatest gold treasure in their safes. Why this? The central banks apparently no longer trust their own product - paper money!

top-gold-reserve.webp


Last edited: Apr 29, 2020
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Silver
"Gold und Silber lieb ich sehr"
Dagobert Duck, Edelmetallinvestor und reichste Ente der Welt.

Silver is the little brother of gold and is often a by-product of gold and other metals mining. Silver has also always been money. Silver is heavily used and is actually rarer than gold! Yes, you read correctly. Inventories available worldwide for investment are less than gold. There are currently 71,000 tons of silver and the annual production rate is 25,000 tons. Several analyzes assume that global silver reserves will be depleted in 2028-2035 if no new deposits are found. Silver conducts heat and electricity best of all metals. It has extreme elasticity and softness.

In addition to its monetary role, silver, as a so-called hermaphrodite metal, is heavily used and consumed in industry. It is therefore heavily dependent on the economy.
Historically, the silver price is low. The gold-silver ratio - the ratio between the price of gold and the silver - has always been around 60 in the past. That means you had to give 60 silver ounces for an ounce of gold. We are currently at 90. This means that gold is overvalued compared to silver and silver is strongly undervalued compared to gold.

Silver is already subject to VAT due to its categorization as an industrial metal. For this reason, only coins and no bars are suitable for private investors since these are taxed at X percent. Recommended investment coins are the maple leaf, the kangaroo and the Vienna Philharmonic. The silver version of the Krugerrand has also been available since 2018. 1-ounce coins are particularly useful.

In September 2019, 1 ounce of silver in the form of a coin costs around 20 euros. 10 kilograms of gold are currently worth almost 450,000 euros, while 10 kilograms of silver are worth around 6,000 euros. If you want to buy silver, you must carry it hard and need space. The coins and bars are voluminous. An alternative is to buy an ETF. however, there are only a few "real" silver ETFs in the European Union. Because according to an EEC guideline (guideline of the European economic community, predecessor of the EG and the EU) funds may not invest more than 20 percent in an asset.

ETCs, Exchange Traded Commodities, are an alternative. In contrast to a real silver ETF, this is a certificate and not a special fund. however, they are usually not issued by banks, but by special issuing houses. This is to reduce the risk that the company will become insolvent, for example due to loan defaults.

In addition, the ETCs are secured, which is intended to guarantee security like that of ETFs. An ETF is preferred and is only available in Switzerland because it is not covered by EU law.

We have found what you are looking for in Switzerland and have placed it in our value fund right away.

The Zürcher Kantonalbank has launched the ZKB-SILBER-ETF (WKN: A1JXTG) - a physically deposited ETF. Zürcher Kantonalbank is a public law bank, comparable to the German state banks. The Swiss cantonal banks usually coped better with the financial crisis than their German counterparts.

The annual fees are comparatively low at 0.60 percent, considering that the ETF actually has to store and insure the deposited silver in the form of bars. However, the fund must be bought on the Zurich stock exchange. Depending on the broker, high fees may apply. It's worth comparing here!

What else speaks for precious metals

With the Basel III guideline, gold, silver and platinum are upgraded as money. From 2022, banks and central banks can physically invest up to 20 percent of their equity in these free precious metals to strengthen their balance sheets and stabilize them against crises that are expected. This means that gold, but also silver and even platinum, have been upgraded from tier 3 to tier 1 Tier 1 capital ratio for the first time since 1971 and thus equated as a risk-free investment such as government bonds (!) And central bank money. This will create further demand as more and more central banks lose faith in their own product and want to protect themselves from crashes and crises.

The website gold.de is an excellent independent source for reputable precious metal traders. You will also find a good and reputable dealer near you. But always compare the prices! There is also a warning list on the site with dubious providers and fake shops.

National and recommended retailers are the multiple award-winning test winner from FOCUS Money Goldsilbershop.de, Degussa, Goldkanzlei.com Geiger and Kettner.

What else speaks for precious metals
With the Basel III guideline, gold, silver and platinum are upgraded as money. From 2022, banks and central banks can physically invest up to 20 percent of their equity in these free precious metals to strengthen their balance sheets and stabilize them against crises that are expected. This means that gold, but also silver and even platinum, have been upgraded from tier 3 to tier 1 Tier 1 capital ratio for the first time since 1971 and thus equated as a risk-free investment such as government bonds (!) And central bank money. This will create further demand as more and more central banks lose faith in their own product and want to protect themselves from crashes and crises.

The website gold.de is an excellent independent source for reputable precious metal traders. You will also find a good and reputable dealer near you. But always compare the prices! There is also a warning list on the site with dubious providers and fake shops.

National and recommended retailers are the multiple award-winning test winner from FOCUS Money Goldsilbershop.de, Degussa, Goldkanzlei.com Geiger and Kettner.

Recommendations
Everyone should have precious metals physically. Even banks have recommended that investors have 5 to 10 percent in their portfolios as security since the 2008 financial crisis.

We recommend owning up to 30 percent of your assets in the form of precious metals as an asset protection. Gold, silver and platinum are life insurance for your assets against inflation, crises and the madness of central banks and politics.

According to our analysis, the next cycle is a raw material and above all a precious metal cycle. People's trust in the elites and paper stocks will fade and trigger a flight into real assets. We expect a new gold high of $ 5,000 in the long run, and maybe $ 10,000 or more in an exaggeration phase. The rise in silver will be even more dramatic. Here we see courses in the three-digit range.

In addition, you should physically buy precious metals physically in the table shop, that is, without having to show and register your personal details. From January 2020, this will only be possible up to EUR 2,000. Previously, there were 15,000 until 2017. This was reduced to 10,000 euros and with effect from January 2020 to only 2,000 euros. We are assuming a complete abolition anyway.

Therefore, you should still use this time window to legally and anonymously withdraw money from the banking and money cycle in the form of precious metals and diamonds. All precious metals are exempt from withholding tax. Income from course increases for private individuals resident in Germany are therefore tax-free after a holding period of one year. Buy gradually in tranches in phases of weakness. The foundation should be gold. 75 to 90 percent in gold, 10 to 25 percent in silver and 1 to 3 percent in platinum.

Foreign currencies
We are often asked about investments in foreign currencies, especially Swiss Francs (outside the EU and the EURO, safe haven, world safe - see section "Switzerland"), Norwegian Krone, Australian and Canadian dollars (outside the EU and Eurozone, all covered by raw materials) and US dollars (number 1 economic power, covered by aircraft carriers and nuclear weapons, the leading currency).

Any unsecured paper currency is always a bad investment!
Why? Every currency is inflated by the states. This means that it continuously loses purchasing power. This is how the state can borrow at the expense of its citizens. Inflation is nothing but a tax. For example, the ECB has issued the goal of keeping prices stable across the euro area. For this purpose, an annual inflation rate of 2 percent per year is targeted. That works rather badly, but since its introduction, the euro has officially lost 30 percent of its purchasing power. When inflation reaches 2 percent, money loses 2 percent of purchasing power each year. No one has yet been able to explain what should be stable about it. With 2 percent inflation, the purchasing power of your money halves after 35 years. At 5 percent, it takes 14 years.

Furthermore, uncovered paper currencies have lost massive value over time and ultimately always failed. Furthermore, foreign currencies are not legal tender in Germany. You cannot use it to walk and pay in the store. Foreign currency deposits can be expropriated in extreme cases, such as in Argentina. In addition, money in the account does not belong to you, but to the bank and you have only given the bank a cheap, free loan for which you are liable.

Recommendation
Our recommendations to invest in Swiss tendrils in 2013 and in the US dollar in 2018 worked out, and when you detached yourself from the euro you made a nice book profit of 20 percent and the Dollar became 10 percent more expensive than the euro. Nevertheless, we do not recommend investing anymore, and if so, in physical cash.
We would always use the IMF currency basket as a guide. You will not find Swiss francs, Canadian dollars or Norwegian Krones, but US dollars, euros, pounds, yuan, and yen. The pound and the yuan are interesting at the moment as they have lost a lot. We assume that Great Britain will shell out in the medium term (Brexit) and that China will be the number one economic power in the future. But we also continue to see the US dollar as positive.

Real Estate
The dream of owning a home is deeply rooted in people. In addition to the advantages of not having to pay rent, being able to do what you want at home, leaving no consideration for neighbors above or below, there are also some rights and obligations for homeowners.

Property obliges .... to pay!

Your own four walls! Freedom, independence, good pension provision. But this freedom comes with disadvantages. Every property owner knows the property tax notice. This means that the property belongs to you, but the land belongs to the state.

Don't forget: Nothing is easier to tax than a property. Because, as the name suggests, real estate is immobile. This means you cannot hide them, bury them in the garden or carry them over the border.

If states are in financial difficulties, they are happy to fall back on property owners. We saw that in the last crisis in Greece, Cyprus and Italy. In Greece, the Single Property Tax (ENFIA) was introduced in 2014 under pressure from the Troika. The basic tax rate is between EUR 0.001 and EUR 13 per square meter depending on the value of the property. The additional tax applies to private individuals with a property value of more than 200,000 euros and is between 0.1 percent and 1.15 percent of the value of the property. The additional tax rate for legal entities is 0.55 percent of the value of the property. In addition, the municipal property tax of 0.25 percent to 0.35 percent of the property value is required annually.

In Germany, real estate taxation has always been a popular instrument for politicians to spice up the empty state coffers: in 1924 there was the house tax (until 1943) and in 1952 the debt burden settlement.

Due to the hyperinflation in 1923, many debts were completely discharged because the debts were inflated away, while the real property remained the same. In order to counteract this and so that the debtors do not benefit from hyperinflation, the house tax was introduced in 1924 and the house builders were asked to pay.
A similar thing happened in 1952 with the debt settlement. This was a property levy, but since most had nothing after the war, except for their house, the property owners had to bleed again, this time the cupping of the property owners was stretched to 30 years, and you had to spend 50 percent of your wealth (allowance: 5000 D-Mark) stutter at 1.67 percent per year. In the context of the heated discussions about expropriation and redistribution, we expect a wealth tax. which in turn will mainly affect property owners.

The first property or the first 300,000 or 500,000 euros may not be tax-exempt, but after that it will probably be staggered exponentially.
In addition, there is currently a whole range of other measures at federal level - already implemented and partly planned - that lead to the expropriation of property owners. Applies only for Germany, no relevance for tis article here.

Recommendation:
Buying a property at the current, extremely high price level does not make sense. Even the Bundesbank sees significant exaggerations in cities and metropolitan areas in the meantime. If you have the opportunity to buy a property that suits you, then this is of course worth considering. From experience, we can say that bargains are currently hard to find in the real estate sector. As a result, supposed bargains often turn out to be the opposite. As a result, we currently recommend our customers as part of the fee advisory service rather the opposite - to sell at today's high prices. Act counter-cyclically! The prices will drop again. Of course, there is nothing to be said against a debt-free owner-occupied property. No matter when you buy a property, it should not cost more than 30 percent of the total assets. Why? Because of the risk of clumping.

The following example: Would you take 50 percent or even all of your money, go to the casino and bet everything on the number 34?

Certainly not, but that is exactly what a majority of our fellow human beings in Germany do. You are betting on your own home.
But what if the economic situation deteriorates?

Does the job go flute or does the woman file for divorce? When the cost of the loan can no longer be paid? A property is always associated with costs, and repairs are necessary after a few years. If the legislator passes further climate protection regulations, then some real estate owners will have one or the other unexpected costly surprise.

If you say now: "But I only have 50,000 or 100,000 euros and the nice man from the bank offers me a very cheap loan" - yes, of course, but then the property belongs to the bank until you pay back the last cent to have. And then you are in debt with 150 percent. Live for rent. Here, too, the cycle will change again, and there will again be cheap real estate.

Investment no-gos
We are in a new era. What has worked for the past few decades has now often had its day. We no longer consider Riester, Rürup, insurance, life insurance, building society contracts and other investments in government and corporate bonds of any kind to be up-to-date and therefore not effective. We advocate investments in real assets. We generally advise against buying on debt.

We also warn against speculation on falling / rising prices of securities if you have no experience with them. This is gambling and not asset protection.
This should only be done by those who are fully aware of the risks. It makes sense to use a maximum of 5 percent of the assets. This capital is to be regarded as "play money".

Furthermore, we cannot morally represent the price speculation on food or the investment in companies that are active in the field of weapons. You have to decide the latter point for yourself. For some, returns come before morals. At any rate, we want to be able to shy away from looking in the mirror in the morning. As a result, we do not invest in Nestle, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs or Bayer / Monsanto, for example, because we fundamentally contradict their corporate philosophy.
Rare earths, rare buyers, rare profits

We would also like to expressly warn against rare earths and strategy metals - also known as high-tech or technology metals for advertising purposes. These metals and earths are used primarily in consumer electronics (cell phones, computers, tablets), medical technology and in battery manufacture. Toxic acids and even radioactive waste often remain as a by-product of extraction.

Indium, chromium, antimony, gallium, osmium, molybdenum, ruthenium, hafnium, bismuth and tungsten are particularly popular. What is that? Hardly anyone knows that! Where is it traded? Neither is it. These metals and earths are not traded on the stock exchange. This complicates price transparency and sales. Most of the agents and providers pay three times.

1. through the sale
2. With the paid storage, because very few want to store tens of kilos of any metals in the house or fill their lockers with them. To invest 5,000 euros in molybdenum, you would have to put over 100 kilos of it in the locker. Not only will it be expensive, it will also make you sweaty.
3. through the purchase.

The market is opaque and illiquid. The brokers and sellers are nimble and eloquent to advertise and sell these products to you, but they do not buy them back or only at massive discounts. Apparently the trust in your own product is not particularly high. It would be like buying an Audi and then buying a new one years later and the audio dealer says "No, we won't take the old one back".

We had customers in the fee advisory service who had to wait months before there was a buyer, and then only with enormous losses did they get rid of their oh so rare soils.

The waiting time for a sale at one of the largest providers is currently between 12 and 18 months! Stiftung Finanztest had a reader example in which the customer had to wait a full 15 months after five years of investment and price increases because the provider did not buy back directly, but had to find a new buyer first. In the end, the lady had to realize a loss of 50 percent. Interestingly, this enormous discount is not passed on to interested newcomers.

Recommendation
Hands off! Only the intermediaries earn on this investment and the sale proves to be extremely difficult. If you want to put your money into raw materials, you should rather invest directly in the common and highly liquid precious metals (gold, silver, platinum), in a tank filling, funds or physically deposited certificates.

Last edited: May 15, 2020
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Closed funds

Closed-end funds for real estate, containers, ships, or anything else are dangerous and in the worst case even include an obligation to make additional contributions. This means that you can not only lose your deposit, but if the investment develops poorly, you can even lose an amount that can reach the purchase price.

So be careful!! We strongly advise against investing money in the long term and certainly not in closed funds without any real security. In the meantime, quite a few of the providers have filed for bankruptcy or the funds have been closed - forever!

Rip-off with scrap property was also popular. These are mostly completely overpriced apartments that are recommended to investors as an investment for retirement provision.

Recommendation
Do not do business on the phone! When someone calls you, no matter how nice and personable they sound, do not let anything turn you on. Only those who write stay. There are warning lists at the consumer centers or at Stiftung Warentest.

If something sounds too good to be true, it's probably not true!

Again, and again we receive messages or calls for help where we can only shake our heads. There are people who fall for any windy investments because there should be a 5 or 10 percent return. Everything sounded profoundly serious because they have a chic website and glossy flyer. Lehman Brothers had that and so did Deutsche Bank. It is not the packaging that matters, it is the content!

Recently we received several messages from people who entrusted money or Bitcoin to some traders who collect money in telegram groups or on websites and promise high returns, sometimes even without contracts. That is naive and highly speculative! There was betting on the rising DAX or bitcoins were used.

Then after 70, 80 or more percent, the loss was revealed to investors, and most of the coal was gone.

Speaking of Bitcoin, many seedy providers have now jumped on this train. Mostly they are pyramid systems like Bitclub, Onecoin, Platincoin and so on. If you want to invest in this new area, do it directly and not through third parties.

Recommendation:
Stay away from unrealistic returns. We have a zero and soon negative interest phase. High return means high risk.

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