What stocks would you invest in?

[Mike Forman]

Can you indicate which ETF you all invested in when you wrote a 100pct safe bet would be shorten German energy consuming corporations several months ago.

Several months ago you also indicated oil and gas prices would go up by end of 2022.

What are your realized and unrealized PL at the moment if you don't mind sharing them as a market expert.
The 100pct sure bet to shorten German corporations and the oil price increase would have resulted in serious losses.

Since the fed there only goal to bring down inflation is to cool down demand, which means less energy consumption.

It's a good period for day trading and swing investing, buying at dips and then sell when stocks rally, which is the case several times a month.

Stocks will further go downwards, once they dropped another 20 pct I believe dip buying and further averaging down should be a good strategy for long investment. Still there are quite some events that can happen and result in SP500 even dropping to 2600, that's still a 30-40pct downward trend compared to current price

 

[369]

I invested in oxy warrants when they were at $10.Currently they are at arround $40 as Oxy is in a correction.
WTI is up in dec .Not much but enough to stop the correction.
Now i'm waiting for feb to see in 2023 a barrel price above $120 which will tripple the profit of OXY and the warrants will include a leverage to it.

Fed wants to bring inflation down ?Haha you watch to much main stream media.
What they want for all of us is stagflation which means a recession and higher inflation on major goods causing that the people get poor and dependable

 

[Mike Forman]

That was a purchase during the oil price crash during covid, so ofcourse afterwards there was a correction and gains. Same as anyone who owned stocks before covid achieved serious gains.

This is not very relevant to anyone who wants to get into the market now, and the picture is completely different.

Oil prices this first week of 2023 tumbled to 76USD. Let's track the barrel prices and see if they will go up to 120usd next month as you forecast.

Which specialized media you read that you are so knowledgeable about the Fed their intentions? Or you are in the board of the Fed?

I don't and won't ever claim I am very knowledgeable and definitely not that I can predict the market. If one of us could predict with hundred percent certainty the stock market you would not be here on this forum but instead be busy counting and spending the millions you make every month.

If the fed do their job right, stagflation is exactly what the economy needs for a brief period of time, only after a cool down of the economy inflation can gi down. The effect of interest increase is only seen 12 months later, with the first raise of the fed only in the first quarter of last year.

We all know the world finances and geopolitical events are orchestrated/manipulated by some individuals/corporations, nothing new here.

The big unanswered questions relevant to the equity market are (from my humble understanding) :

1) will we get into a recession and how serious will it be. If there will be a recession are the lower profit earnings already reflected in the equity prices? (no)
2) with how many basis points will the fed further hike the interest the next months?
3) when will the fed pivot, and especially again lower down the rates which will result again in a rally in the stock prices
4) what are the possible macro economic events. Russian war, invasion Taiwan, social unrest ... or any unexpected event such as covid

Main conclusion is that current equity rallies and tumbles are mostly influenced by the feds minutes and decisions.

I am making consistent profit, although only 4 digits amounts per month by buying /shorting during the swings. The market is still to volatile for me for long term investments and I expext a further drop in equity prices of +20%. Some nasdaq stocks that dropped over 50pct are already close to a buy

 

[Mike Forman]

Where are you with all the undisputable statements where gas and oil would sky rocket in the next 2-3 months?

Did you put actions to your words and lost a lot of money or was the goal to misinform others and let others lose with being so sure? All what was said in this thread by 369 the opposite is true.

This is not to confront nor is any response expected since there is no credibility left further to discuss with you on this topic. Just hopefully this humbles someone down and let anyone realize that stock markets and commodities are never guaranteed and one should never claim on a public forum that he is 100pct sure the prices would go in one direction. If someone knew that he wouldn't be on this forum and would be a billionaire

 

[369]

OXY warrants went down from $40 to $37.5.Nothing special.Did i lost anything ?No because i didn't sold.
But you are right i was wrong with timing.
New oil target $300 in next 18 months but before we may see $40 in the first half year of 2023 before it moves to its first destination at $120

Also was i wrong about stagflation that inflation keeps high and recession gets deeper ?
I guess not.
It was/is a suckers really nothing more.
Timing is something i can't fully predict as same as the unnatural suckers really as i'm not a member of their club.
Does it hurt me ?Not at all because the fundamentals are still the same and there is no way we won't hit in the end $300 per barrel.
So instead waiting for $120 i will wait max 18 more months to see an oil price of $300.Should it go more down to end the declining cycle i will add more warrents.
That is how winners trade.

On the other side gold mining made me 80% which i'm currently short nearly a month and will soon rejoin for the correction up before we high probably see a FINAL time gold testing $1600 and silver at $14-15

 

[GeneralGogol]

He also predicted that Europeans will freeze to death this winter... the guy is a wacko, completely detached from reality. I'm sure that even if he lost tons of money in his mind he is convinced he actually made big profits.

No point arguing with people that are not connected to reality. Like some people here that are convinced that Russia is winning the war. Waste of time.

 

[polonieth]

The freezing this winter wasn't a bad prediction really; the only thing that prevented it was it has been incredibly mild. Look at people's energy bills, it's likely to happen next winter.

 

[369]

BASF moving to China.
Bayer to USA
Lindner to USA
etc
because of the high prices.( or because that was the plan from the beginning)

I never said they will freeze to death.Stop putting words into my mouth i never said.
I said there will be rationing.
Luckily there was a mild winter which caused to use way less heating than before.
Less heating was also caused by exploding prices which is making that
1.inflation keeps high
2.big companies move out of eu even to china
3.citizens lose purchase power
4.Companies get less competive.
So Europe gets deindustrialized.
Congrats on that

One winter passed luckily doesn't mean its not going to happen next winter.
Austrian government is already implementing plans for blackouts and gas/oil rationing.
In Poland for example they admitted to have put high oil prices to reduce the demand heavily because else there would have been a shortage.
It is an indirect rationing to cut selling numbers by making it to expensiv for people to uphold their old level.

I didn't lost tons of money.I even openly said mutiple times in what i invested for the energy crisis.
OXY warrants.
If you would check my old posts i mentioned it buying at $40 when price of oxy was flctating between $40-45.
Here the actual price
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/OXY"
So let me know how much i lost ?

 

[pixbix]

Maybe they (European Union) will freeze to death in 2023/2024 next winter?

 

[369]

https://www.automobilwoche.de/nachr...r-chef-klaus-rosenfeld-denkt-werksbau-den-usa

 

[RealDude]

I predict that all EU members will freeze and burn every year in winter due to Russian gas shortage and in summer due to Russian atomic bombs for the next 1000 years, as long as the Russian 1000 year empire will exist.

 

[Dreamy]

The entire civilized world is doing everything possible to make this ugly dictatorial pseudo-empire called russia cease to exist. And it will happen, hopefully this year. Finger crossed! Will go to buy some LMT, GD , NOC stocks!

 

[GeneralGogol]

Amazing how one can be perpetually wrong for more than a year and instead of stopping to re-think your biases and assumptions, you just move the goal posts to "next year". Maybe time to stop and reflect?

 

[snatner]

I would pick mining companies, gold, silver, copper etc... but also BTC mining companies.

 

[369]

where was i wrong a whole year ?
Did my shares went down ?
Its just a bit more time.The reward will be significant
Keep going with your Selensky and the world will stay wonderfull.
But i understand why paid shills try to discredit people who say the truth with their manipulating claimes.

Fully agree.Am collecting shares already for a long time however there are also hidden risks involved caused by insiders.
Like having the gold already sold for a fixed low price for debt,Broker going down if you can't DRS,Dillution etc.
Going to buy the last final big batch once gold hits $1600

Btw you want to see my short options on DB i opened two weeks ago ?