What is your take on the altcoin massacre, weak bitcoin and volatile macro backdrop?
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He just closed after the Trump tweet.
10+ million USD profit from those trades.
https://debank.com/profile/0xe4d31c2541a9ce596419879b1a46ffc7cd202c62
10+ million USD profit from those trades.
https://debank.com/profile/0xe4d31c2541a9ce596419879b1a46ffc7cd202c62
I don’t have time to read all of this - but will point out had to you observed Global Liquidity being drained in September by 3% (1% - 15% move in BTC) you’d have been prepared for this as it takes 12/13 weeks to seep through the markets.
The good news is it’s already back above where it was in September, the bad news is there is not enough liquidity to roll the debt and over 2.7% markets absolutely crater (this isn’t a crater yet) - good news DXY coming down and China throwing in liquidity, same as the EU, the US is however lagging.︀
FYI global liquidity isn’t M2 (that’s just directionally tied but lags
The good news is︁ you don’t need to pay 5k a month or build your own things (200k and︂ lots of data providers) you just use things like Michael Howell - capital wars Substack︃ PDF where he gives weekly updates (lag) or terminal ai.catenacap.xyz which has everything tracked in︄ dashboards
Note there’s a lot of liquidity that you don’t see or hear about such︅ as the Yellen YCC or QE Not QE that’s been going on (some 6 trillion︆ $ pumped in behind the scenes that’s now down to the last sub 1 trillion︇ currently draining out) that’s why it’s important to understand liquidity in its forms as it’s︈ basically the driver with a 94% correlation to Bitcoin.
As for Alts / ETH -︉ those are based on the business cycle - ISM just in the past few months︊ peaked above 50% - around 62/68% that’s when you see the firecrackers and should be︋ on the life craft - ergo it’s underperformed because the business cycle lags FCI and︌ FCI lags GL and GL lags CB L.
Hope that helps
The good news is it’s already back above where it was in September, the bad news is there is not enough liquidity to roll the debt and over 2.7% markets absolutely crater (this isn’t a crater yet) - good news DXY coming down and China throwing in liquidity, same as the EU, the US is however lagging.︀
FYI global liquidity isn’t M2 (that’s just directionally tied but lags
The good news is︁ you don’t need to pay 5k a month or build your own things (200k and︂ lots of data providers) you just use things like Michael Howell - capital wars Substack︃ PDF where he gives weekly updates (lag) or terminal ai.catenacap.xyz which has everything tracked in︄ dashboards
Note there’s a lot of liquidity that you don’t see or hear about such︅ as the Yellen YCC or QE Not QE that’s been going on (some 6 trillion︆ $ pumped in behind the scenes that’s now down to the last sub 1 trillion︇ currently draining out) that’s why it’s important to understand liquidity in its forms as it’s︈ basically the driver with a 94% correlation to Bitcoin.
As for Alts / ETH -︉ those are based on the business cycle - ISM just in the past few months︊ peaked above 50% - around 62/68% that’s when you see the firecrackers and should be︋ on the life craft - ergo it’s underperformed because the business cycle lags FCI and︌ FCI lags GL and GL lags CB L.
Hope that helps
There's no viable scaling solution yet (only smoke and mirrors) therefore no price breakthrough. That's no wonder since the very beginning crypto has permanently been under attack. In these circumstances one has to exhibit patience.
Really solid write-up, you covered︌ a lot of the big-picture concerns I’ve been thinking about too. ETH definitely feels like︍ it’s at a major crossroads, and the comparison to the DAO hack makes sense. The︎ fundamentals look shaky, and the competition from faster L1s like Solana is real. But like️ you pointed out, Solana has its own issues, do you think the ecosystem can evolve beyond the current memecoin/pumpfun dynamic, or is that baked into its DNA now?
I also found your comments on BTC interesting. The ETF wave felt bullish at first, but now I’m not so sure, especially with things like BlackRock’s disclaimer. Do you think there's any realistic path for Bitcoin to stay truly independent long-term, or are we already past that point?
And on the whole conviction vs. delusion question, that hit home. At what point do you personally decide it’s no longer worth holding through the drawdowns? Is there a︀ line for you where thesis breaks and it’s time to rotate or step back?
Would be keen to hear how you're thinking through all this.
I also found your comments on BTC interesting. The ETF wave felt bullish at first, but now I’m not so sure, especially with things like BlackRock’s disclaimer. Do you think there's any realistic path for Bitcoin to stay truly independent long-term, or are we already past that point?
And on the whole conviction vs. delusion question, that hit home. At what point do you personally decide it’s no longer worth holding through the drawdowns? Is there a︀ line for you where thesis breaks and it’s time to rotate or step back?
Would be keen to hear how you're thinking through all this.
See the Governments proposed bill yesterday.
Issuance will be securities...︆ so basically the same s**t the SEC has been doing for the past 8 yrs.︇
This time the courts will side with them in all cases as they are granted︈ by Congress the authority.... That means ETH is one of the few that will have︉ clarity, a lot of them will be securities still due to not being sufficiently decentralized...︊ also means those already decentralised get a moat.
Meaning the Government is choosing the winners/loosers,︋ and the shitcoins or speculative plays that have outperformed eth will have multi-point regulatory attacks.︌
Issuance will be securities...︆ so basically the same s**t the SEC has been doing for the past 8 yrs.︇
This time the courts will side with them in all cases as they are granted︈ by Congress the authority.... That means ETH is one of the few that will have︉ clarity, a lot of them will be securities still due to not being sufficiently decentralized...︊ also means those already decentralised get a moat.
Meaning the Government is choosing the winners/loosers,︋ and the shitcoins or speculative plays that have outperformed eth will have multi-point regulatory attacks.︌
Yeah, I saw the bill too. It seems like the government’s really tightening control, and you're right, a lot of coins might get hit.
Do you think this will actually boost ETH in the long run, or could it hurt the market as a whole?
Do you think this will actually boost ETH in the long run, or could it hurt the market as a whole?
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