I do. Frequently. Not the exact bottom, but it’s quite easy to see a significant pullback and take advantage by getting in either on the decline, the way back up, or both. It’s also easy to see an overbought situation and rotate, especially in a high interest rate environment that reduces opportunity cost. You can get most of it and that’s what you need to content yourself with. Getting all of it by timing the exact top and bottom is greedy and you’ll fail.
What investment is making you 10%+ yearly?
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Long term you are right, short term it depends on your timing. If you had bought VT at the beginning of 2022, you'd be about 20% in minus one year later.
Cash is only good for short term liquidity.
If the CCP gets their quantum computers to work properly, all passwords and access codes will become obsolete, also the one you use to login to your broker account, and all military ones, breaking BTC will be the last of your worries then. There are yotabytes of encrypted data being collected by them and the NSA and kept in data-centers for future decryption when the tech arrives.
Crypto can and will be upgraded to become resistant to quantum tech (if it really arrives, we had like 40 years of this scare crow now).
Anyway, your suggested time frame of 5 years allows one more bullrun, with a ROI that beats almost all other investments so far.
No one can take it if no one knows where you hid it. The only risk I see is buying goldplated tungsten instead of real one. Long term it's a no brainer, you mentioned fiat inflation yourself.
Real estate is not just buying hard assets, but REITs, notes (>9% per year) , construction, holiday rentals, land. Lots of money to be made.
Diversification and tax reduction by location. There are still places where you can build a villa (including land) for <300K, and make it back in less than 5 years, while additionally the asset's value appreciates.
People always need a home, some cultures still make lots of babies, and some economies are still growing.
In one of these places I bought land for $0.25/sqm about 8 years ago.
There is no yearly land tax requirement on the land itself. I'll better not tell you today's value, the ROI is more than good enough for me to put it on sale this year.
And this was a 'bad investment', the other one I almost bought went from $20K to $500K in 1.5 years.
Location, location, location - and luck.
But the opportunities are everywhere, even in Bulgaria you'd make good money buying property during COVID (I saw apartments in tourist locations (Bankso, Sunny beach) offered for 12,000 Euro online). Today their price is 3 times higher.
Disclaimer: I wouldn't dare to try this in the EU with their energy efficiency regulations and bias against landlords.
It's just a question of time until they confiscate everything for the 'greater good', or start taxing air (well, 'carbon tax' is pretty much it).
They don't deliver the requested 10% unfortunately, just good to park money until one finds something better.
But there is one important point for some: the US treasury doesn't ask for SOF if you invest directly with them.
Cash is only good for short term liquidity.
If the CCP gets their quantum computers to work properly, all passwords and access codes will become obsolete, also the one you use to login to your broker account, and all military ones, breaking BTC will be the last of your worries then. There are yotabytes of encrypted data being collected by them and the NSA and kept in data-centers for future decryption when the tech arrives.
Crypto can and will be upgraded to become resistant to quantum tech (if it really arrives, we had like 40 years of this scare crow now).
Anyway, your suggested time frame of 5 years allows one more bullrun, with a ROI that beats almost all other investments so far.
No one can take it if no one knows where you hid it. The only risk I see is buying goldplated tungsten instead of real one. Long term it's a no brainer, you mentioned fiat inflation yourself.
Real estate is not just buying hard assets, but REITs, notes (>9% per year) , construction, holiday rentals, land. Lots of money to be made.
Diversification and tax reduction by location. There are still places where you can build a villa (including land) for <300K, and make it back in less than 5 years, while additionally the asset's value appreciates.
People always need a home, some cultures still make lots of babies, and some economies are still growing.
In one of these places I bought land for $0.25/sqm about 8 years ago.
There is no yearly land tax requirement on the land itself. I'll better not tell you today's value, the ROI is more than good enough for me to put it on sale this year.
And this was a 'bad investment', the other one I almost bought went from $20K to $500K in 1.5 years.
Location, location, location - and luck.
But the opportunities are everywhere, even in Bulgaria you'd make good money buying property during COVID (I saw apartments in tourist locations (Bankso, Sunny beach) offered for 12,000 Euro online). Today their price is 3 times higher.
Disclaimer: I wouldn't dare to try this in the EU with their energy efficiency regulations and bias against landlords.
It's just a question of time until they confiscate everything for the 'greater good', or start taxing air (well, 'carbon tax' is pretty much it).
They don't deliver the requested 10% unfortunately, just good to park money until one finds something better.
But there is one important point for some: the US treasury doesn't ask for SOF if you invest directly with them.
Market timing works until it won't, and one might need to wait several years without selling to recover the loss or make profit.
The portion of capital in stake is also key. Psychology highly matters in your decision making, playing 10% of your net worth should be more successful in a market timing strategy than playing 90%.
The portion of capital in stake is also key. Psychology highly matters in your decision making, playing 10% of your net worth should be more successful in a market timing strategy than playing 90%.
Can't give away this alpha yet, it's my exit strategy from crypto.
If you would kindly allow me twelve more months, I will be pleased to share the information with you then.
If you would kindly allow me twelve more months, I will be pleased to share the information with you then.
Everything in life works until it doesn’t. It’s not that hard to do this if you aren’t greedy. If the business cycle or the premise of a constant growth economy breaks globally, we all have bigger problems. I would have added monetary policy to that list before but it is pretty much broken globally and it turns out you can deal with that.
The plan is exiting for a year (Oct. 2025-Oct. 2026?), skipping the bear this time and acquiring yielding hard assets.
It's my first exit, after hodling all these years through all cycles and watching the numbers go slowly up and faster down.
I need to proof to myself that I am not that idiot that makes the same mistake again and again. ;-)
Funneling most of that future monthly income back into crypto and gold long term, I'll be able to sleep well without paying much attention to the markets anymore.
Whatever happens, I'll win. Even if the quantum scare becomes true one day, lol.
It's my first exit, after hodling all these years through all cycles and watching the numbers go slowly up and faster down.
I need to proof to myself that I am not that idiot that makes the same mistake again and again. ;-)
Funneling most of that future monthly income back into crypto and gold long term, I'll be able to sleep well without paying much attention to the markets anymore.
Whatever happens, I'll win. Even if the quantum scare becomes true one day, lol.
You should buy stock indices with 30 year timeframe.
Common misconcepton. Centralized instutitions will quickly transfer to quantum proof encryption. It will be easy to do due to centralized aspect. Brokers, banks will be fine. Stuff like imessage, signal and tuta have already transferred. Other companies are in process of doing so. Decentarlized blockchains will get caught with their pants down and wrecked to infinity. It may actually spell doom for Bitcoin and the fallout from CCP doing a surprise quantum attack on BTC will be tremendous. Stock indices will be fine, actually they will do AMAZING due to rapid acceleration of productivity via implementation of AI + quantum + robotics. Stock indices will capture space colonisation and asteroid mining profits as well, Bitcoin won't.
It won't work like that. It's near imposible to coordinate this for Bitcoin, because you have to be right not only on tech, but on timeframe. CCP won't announce when they have the quantum computer ready, it will be sudden. You can't be too early and youcan't be too late. Therefore you can't coordinate Bitcoin transfer to quantum proof algorihtms with CCP's planned quantum attack on BTC infrastructure.
5 years max, you failed to extrapolate and bear in mind accelerating developments. Common error.
REITs are not magic money to be made, they won't make you 9% on annual risk adjusted long term. Risk adjusted REIT's don't beat total stock index.
More info here:
REIT's are not a magic money making asset, the expectations are already priced in and stock indices include REIT's and everything else anyway.
INTERESTED! Which are these places?
What location?
Common misconcepton. Centralized instutitions will quickly transfer to quantum proof encryption. It will be easy to do due to centralized aspect. Brokers, banks will be fine. Stuff like imessage, signal and tuta have already transferred. Other companies are in process of doing so. Decentarlized blockchains will get caught with their pants down and wrecked to infinity. It may actually spell doom for Bitcoin and the fallout from CCP doing a surprise quantum attack on BTC will be tremendous. Stock indices will be fine, actually they will do AMAZING due to rapid acceleration of productivity via implementation of AI + quantum + robotics. Stock indices will capture space colonisation and asteroid mining profits as well, Bitcoin won't.
It won't work like that. It's near imposible to coordinate this for Bitcoin, because you have to be right not only on tech, but on timeframe. CCP won't announce when they have the quantum computer ready, it will be sudden. You can't be too early and youcan't be too late. Therefore you can't coordinate Bitcoin transfer to quantum proof algorihtms with CCP's planned quantum attack on BTC infrastructure.
5 years max, you failed to extrapolate and bear in mind accelerating developments. Common error.
REITs are not magic money to be made, they won't make you 9% on annual risk adjusted long term. Risk adjusted REIT's don't beat total stock index.
More info here:
REIT's are not a magic money making asset, the expectations are already priced in and stock indices include REIT's and everything else anyway.
INTERESTED! Which are these places?
What location?
Exiting crypto right now is very smart. People think we will have "another cycle", but I don't think we will. This is end game for crypto. Quantum computers, EU MICA and tightening regulations will change the game completely. CCP breaking Bitcoin within 5 years will make people lose trust in crypto and return to hard assets like gold. But gold is a stupid investment anyway. Smartest investments right now are companies (stocks) and farmland or land in appreciating locations (require market insight). Notice I said LAND not property.
Why LAND not PROPERTY?
Because when we reach singularity (within 3-5 years), we will be able to produce almost everything dirty cheap, including robot printed houses and luxury apartments. Yes, it's already happening and will only develop further. Guess what we won't be able to produce more even with AGI helping us?
LAND IN PRIME LOCATIONS.
So you buy land and wait.
Why LAND not PROPERTY?
Because when we reach singularity (within 3-5 years), we will be able to produce almost everything dirty cheap, including robot printed houses and luxury apartments. Yes, it's already happening and will only develop further. Guess what we won't be able to produce more even with AGI helping us?
LAND IN PRIME LOCATIONS.
So you buy land and wait.
No, it's not. If you can really do this, you'd be extremely smart (think quant 135+ IQ measured, no e-stat) and work for one of the big trading firms on WallStreet raking in millions on the annual. Or run your family office. Or at least appear on Forbes 30 under 30.
Any of those apply to you? If yes, I take my words back and respect to your parents for blessing you with 135+ IQ and nurturing environment to allow such growth potential.
Otherwise - don't confuse luck with skill. Analyze your trading history on 10+ year time horizon vs stock index returns and if you can really beat them by huge margin (you have to account for sunk time cost as well), then there's something there.
Any of those apply to you? If yes, I take my words back and respect to your parents for blessing you with 135+ IQ and nurturing environment to allow such growth potential.
Otherwise - don't confuse luck with skill. Analyze your trading history on 10+ year time horizon vs stock index returns and if you can really beat them by huge margin (you have to account for sunk time cost as well), then there's something there.
I don't think CCP's first priority is developing quantum tech to break bitcoin. They got many other things to do with the tech.
There are also ways to prevent an attack on a wallet. If an address never makes a Bitcoin transaction, it remains more secure against quantum attacks.
Quantum computers could potentially exploit public keys to derive private keys, but if the public key has never been revealed through a transaction, it cannot be cracked.
So just make a new wallet and send your BTC there. And before making any outgoing transactions from the new wallet, just wait until all nodes have updated and became quantum proof.
The 9% was for notes, not REITs. But I was lowballing, currently it's up to 14% preferred returns with compounding for the notes.
Asia.
Sorry that I can't dox myself, nor serve the details on a silver platter, DYOR.
There are also ways to prevent an attack on a wallet. If an address never makes a Bitcoin transaction, it remains more secure against quantum attacks.
Quantum computers could potentially exploit public keys to derive private keys, but if the public key has never been revealed through a transaction, it cannot be cracked.
So just make a new wallet and send your BTC there. And before making any outgoing transactions from the new wallet, just wait until all nodes have updated and became quantum proof.
The 9% was for notes, not REITs. But I was lowballing, currently it's up to 14% preferred returns with compounding for the notes.
Asia.
Sorry that I can't dox myself, nor serve the details on a silver platter, DYOR.
As of 23 May 2025, in my most actively traded taxable accounts, my 10 year alpha over the S&P500 was +33 and over the Dow Jones Industrial it was +38. In my less active taxable accounts and tax advantaged accounts, which use much more passive strategies, the worst performers are still ~+5 alpha over those two indices on a 10 year time period. I don’t have a single account that falls to the level of a major index average or produces inferior returns to a major index average. It’s a hobby, so sunk cost is immaterial. I’ve never measured my IQ but I have turned down those big Wall Street jobs several times in the past.
Yes, and Bitcoin will plummet as a side effect, because this news or imminent risk will be priced in instantly.
That makes BTC unusable. What's the point? It will shatter the trust for normies. Nobody will jump through all the hoops necessary when they can just use Revolut which will transfer to quantum safe encryption quickly.
Not enough, you would have to transfer your BTC from this wallet to quantum safe wallet during the transitionary period. But if this takes place AFTER quantum attacks have already been implemented, that's too late.
REIT's haven't made 14% risk adjusted on 30-50 year time horizon.
Just because something has made more than S&P during last few years doesn't mean it will continue to do so, it also doesn't mean it's risk adjusted.
If S&P gets you 10% annual, but some Stock X gets you 20%, yet at same time Stock X carries 3X the risk, then it's a bad risk-adjusted investment.
I'm not asking about you personally. I am interested in the country. Vietnam?
Which is exactly what I'm doing right now by going on a forum dedicated specifically to these topics, providing my unique insights and unique conclusions and expecting others to do the same in return.
Is that an unfair arrangement?
That makes BTC unusable. What's the point? It will shatter the trust for normies. Nobody will jump through all the hoops necessary when they can just use Revolut which will transfer to quantum safe encryption quickly.
Not enough, you would have to transfer your BTC from this wallet to quantum safe wallet during the transitionary period. But if this takes place AFTER quantum attacks have already been implemented, that's too late.
REIT's haven't made 14% risk adjusted on 30-50 year time horizon.
Just because something has made more than S&P during last few years doesn't mean it will continue to do so, it also doesn't mean it's risk adjusted.
If S&P gets you 10% annual, but some Stock X gets you 20%, yet at same time Stock X carries 3X the risk, then it's a bad risk-adjusted investment.
I'm not asking about you personally. I am interested in the country. Vietnam?
Which is exactly what I'm doing right now by going on a forum dedicated specifically to these topics, providing my unique insights and unique conclusions and expecting others to do the same in return.
Is that an unfair arrangement?
If China could, they’d destroy Bitcoin just out of sheer devil-mindedness and to maintain their capital controls and stem capital flight.
No, China doesn't operate on devil-mindedness, they operate on pure, unrestrained LOGIC. They are extremely far-seeing and have multi-decade plans for world domination. CCP insiders would make sure to place short bets on Bitcoin and then crash it at perfect moment. It just makes logical sense to do so. Remember how they were banning/unbanning it to profit from fluctuations? Same here, but on grander scale.
The normies hold Bitcoin ETFs now, or MSTR and similar companies. For the others moving their BTC into a new wallet is not a big deal, creating a new wallet is a very simple task.
China won't attack BTC first, there will be enough time to act when we start to hear hear about hacked military infrastructure. Then the btc wallet might be the least of our worries anyway.
I actually use a few wallets only for incoming transactions since October 2023. And I am sure I am not the only one, people are not stupid (well, most might be, but not everyone).
Have you actually read my previous reply? One more time, that 9% and 14% don't have anything to do with REITs,
I am talking about notes.
China won't attack BTC first, there will be enough time to act when we start to hear hear about hacked military infrastructure. Then the btc wallet might be the least of our worries anyway.
I actually use a few wallets only for incoming transactions since October 2023. And I am sure I am not the only one, people are not stupid (well, most might be, but not everyone).
Have you actually read my previous reply? One more time, that 9% and 14% don't have anything to do with REITs,
I am talking about notes.
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