Was Bitcoin not an alternative investment to the stock market?

[Golden Fleece]

We do not support USD or any other currency. We support real assets with real value. But if I had to choose between USD and crypto to preserve my wealth, then the choice is very clear.

Crypto is a pure speculation. It is useless to preserve wealth, unless you just happen to get lucky for a time.

Gold goes down during a financial panic as overextended investors deleverage, not because of inflation.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

Golden Fleece said:
We do not support USD or any other currency. We support real assets with real value. But if I had to choose between USD and crypto to preserve my wealth, then the choice is very clear.

Crypto is a pure speculation. It is useless to preserve wealth, unless you just happen to get lucky for a time.
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Life is speculation. It is useless to preserve it, we all are going to die.

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[diatessaron]

Bitcoin is all about freedom of buying whatever you want without the Big Brother knowing about it.

 

[latindev]

Even doe I like cryptos and my business has been getting paid and bought services with cryptos for many years, there is no such thing like: "without Big Brothers knowing about it" on anything related to the internet (and cryptocurrencies are another layer of the internet). So don't let other make you believe anonymity with Bitcoin because is not true

 

[fortunespeculator]

I have said that even in an inflationary environment Gold can go down. Any time an asset goes down there are more sellers than buyers period- why that is happening is mostly immaterial -if you are able to cash in only then it matters.
In every market there is a craze at a point in time- so before you want to classify Speculation that way you need to read "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator"-It seems you have been fed a lot of Warren Buffet's Value Investing. I have read both. And i dont see any difference between what Warren Buffet does in the name of Long Term Investing and a Speculator because he(Warren) is trying to keep odds in his favour as well( Having a business with a moat which is a competitive advantage, investing in companies with good management)-it maybe a different parameter for him and the speculator. But when you are playing a game after keeping odds in your favour it is Speculation period. There is nothing called a Real Asset because everything is a vehicle for making money- they go up you go long of it, they go down you go short of it-Pretty Simple. As long as you are making money on a bet, it does not matter. A speculator makes a bet when the odds are in his favour. We are all betting.

 

[Golden Fleece]

Must I really repeat myself? Gold goes down during a financial panic as overextended investors deleverage, not because of inflation. Almost any asset goes down during a financial panic. That will happen regardless of whether the macroeconomic trend is inflationary, deflationary, or neutral.

Your statement is like saying that if you drive a car off a cliff during an inflationary period, it will fall. Well yes, that is indeed true. But that effect of gravity will happen regardless of whether the macroeconomic trend is inflationary, deflationary, or neutral. It does not matter. It will always fall.

 

[fortunespeculator]

Ya whatever blah blah blah, you go long or short keeping odds in your favour mate. Thats all there is to it. The only way to prove if you are right is when you bet and your money is on the line.If you are making money you are right else you are wrong. Your bank balance is the real indicator of whether your hypothesis is right and your bet is right or wrong.

 

[Golden Fleece]

As you said in an earlier post, all you need to do is check the charts.

Gold always go down during a financial crisis as overextended investors deleverage. That is a fact. That happened in 2008 to 2009. Then, because of all the money printing during quantitative easing, the price of gold shot up -- because everyone expected inflation from all the new money creation (which never occurred).

Gold also rose from $35 to over $800 during the last period of rampant inflation (from 1969 to 1980).

 

[fortunespeculator]

Yes the chart shows me whose might is more -buyers or sellers-the Gods are on the sides of the heaviest battallions. My bets are based on that or rather the price action. It does not matter what the reasons for the rise or fall of the vehicle. You can never know all the reasons behind a particular rise or fall. Most of the reasons come out later after the price movement is well underway and the moment for money making is gone. You can form a hypothesis like Livermore said about appraising General conditions or George Soros in his theory of Reflixivity but until and unless that is proved right in the price action it does not mean anything.

Is warren Buffet or any investor going to tell you when he is getting long and for what reason. I don't think so.

 

[Golden Fleece]

So, can you name an an inflationary period where the price of gold substantially declined, which did not occur during a financial panic and market sell-off? Seriously, I would like to know. I could be wrong.

 

[fortunespeculator]

Gold has a 400 year chart history so you have to look- and I said that Gold has gone down in an inflationary period -I didnt add the extras that you have added. Plus when a sell off happens we dont know the reasons of a particular sell off-Did you know in the 2008 market crash when exactly and for what reasons that crash would start- I am not sure if you are having crystall balls at your disposal.

I remember I was just learning to speculate at that time (2008) and even i was short on 21st January 2008 in the Indian
market. And i didn't know the reason for the crash-Only prices told me that I should be short.

 

[lostguy]

obvious it was not, actually it is going parallel with the stock markets!

 

[fortunespeculator]

And each time we get a new bull market in crypto we ride that up,then we get a bear market when it fails spectacularly and we short that down.Ya keep them coming like this .And let me make some more money.

 

[clemens]

You know your s**t - have read many posts from you with interest!

 

[JohnnyDoe]

I start reading posts around like “I am selling all my crypto for fiat. Never again crypto”.
This is great. Reminds me of the post-dotcom bubble sentiment. Some of you will remember that in 1999 everyone was thinking to become rich with dotcom stocks”¦ then, after the major cleanup, AMZ emerged stronger than before. 😉

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