US losing its geopolitical dominance?

[Martin Everson]

Not sure what countries your referring to here that spend trillions.

Manufacturing
Semiconductors
Artificial Intelligence‍
Trading Partnerships
Scientific Research Papers
Battery Technology

China is winning in all the technologies of⁠ the future.

This is long term but if I would hazard a guess by 2050 China would be⁤ top in most fields including Chip design, AI etc. China is already the biggest trading⁣ partner to over 120 countries and has the biggest middle class in the world. It⁢ has long been by far the biggest economy in the world measured in PPP (a︀ real measure of GDP) and that's by US's own admittance.

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/real-gdp-purchasing-power-parity/country-comparison/

The anti-China crowd can︁ get mad at this...lol but if countries want to stand a chance of competing then︂ governments spending more money on research, innovation and building out your own supply chains is︃ key. Spending crazy money on defence like Ursula wants is not the way nor is︄ America's spending on its military gonna achieve anything - just like it's 20 year plus︅ $2trn spending in Afghanistan achieved absolutely nothing.

P.S What you are seeing with Trump is︆ the naked face of US imperialism/capitalism and its last desperate attempts to assert its will︇ and maintain its hegemony in what is becoming an empire in terminal geopolitical and economic︈ decline in a coming multi-polar world.

 

[HardRJones]

Chinese dominance and Chinese collapse are both a bit overdone. The US will lose relative‌ influence and China will gain relative influence. Both will still be influential. As a businessman,‍ be a friend to all and an enemy to none and position yourself as an⁠ intermediary to opposing sides, and you’ll open the most opportunities and grow prosperous.

 

[Martin Everson]

"it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is‌ fatal" - Henry Kissinger

Canada and Mexico learning the hard way 😕.

I wonder if‍ after this 25% slap that America made on them they will go back into an⁠ intimate relationship with America like abused wife?

I can say that in my part of⁤ the world the US government is not at all respected but only feared and that⁣ is a big difference. It's geopolitical dominance will fail when the fear of America reduces⁢ over time. Canada and Mexico both need to diversify there trading relationships just like China.︀ As trade with America only makes up around 15% of China's total exports.

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/exports-by-country

Whereas Mexico and Canada make up 34% of US exports and China only 7.1% for a︁ combined amount of 41.1% of US exports. That could be a big hit to US︂ exports if this is not worked out....lol.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports-by-country

Bottom line Trump made a geopolitical faux︃ pas in the tariff war and is already back tracking on some of them....smi(&%

Trump Pares Back Canada, Mexico Tariffs in Latest Whipsaw on Trade​

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/oth...ariffs-in-latest-whipsaw-on-trade/ar-AA1ApgIg

 

[melzvy]

This!..

Also to add to the last comment ("re-worded" with⁤ Grok AI):

"History suggests a pattern where democracies, sensing their decline, morph into empires or⁣ tyrannies in a futile attempt to halt the fall. They might delay it, but not⁢ stop it, often with wars marking the process. This unraveling stretches over years,typically 5 to︀ 10,not months or a couple of years."

The key question is, knowing this pattern, what︁ are we doing in the side of the 'emerging powers' to capitalize on what’s coming,︂ or at least preserve our way of life, so we’re not caught off guard when︃ the shift happens?

 

[wonderfulboy]

let's hope bitcoin is changing this.

 

[Martin Everson]

Well the US empire has now resorted to theft of foreign countries assets through the‌ courts.

Missouri judge finds Chinese government liable for $24B in damages for ‘hoarding’ protective equipment‍ during COVID pandemic​

https://nypost.com/2025/03/07/us-ne...g-protective-equipment-during-covid-pandemic/

--- quote start

“China refused to show up to court, but⁠ that doesn’t mean they get away with causing untold suffering and economic devastation,” Bailey said.⁤ “We intend to collect every penny by seizing Chinese-owned assets, including Missouri farmland.”

--- quote⁣ end

Well the Saudi's will be next and probably blamed for 9/11 I guess. Also⁢ DeepSeek has exposed U.S tech firms wanting to dominate AI space. Money has been flowing︀ into China stocks.

China’s top tech stocks add $439bn as ‘Mag 7’ sink​

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/international/chinas-top-tech-stocks-add-439bn-as-mag-seven-sink/

--- quote start

A $439 billion rally in Chinese tech megacaps this year has left their︁ once-unbeatable US peers in the dust, an outperformance that many investors say has room to︂ extend.

An equal-weighted basket of China’s seven tech heavyweights including Alibaba Group Holding and Tencent︃ Holdings , dubbed the “7 titans” by Societe Generale SA , has gained more than︄ 40% this year. That compares with an about 10% drop in an index of the︅ Magnificent Seven stocks, whose slump has also pushed the Nasdaq 100 Index to the brink︆ of a correction.

-- quote end

I think the U.S may start seizing U.S Treasuries︇ and other assets held by Sovereign states such as Saudi Arabia and China with court︈ rulings. I mean the man still wants to take over Gaza, Greenland and make Canada︉ 51st state etc....lol. Trump must be a Russian asset as everything he is doing is︊ to isolate US from its closest allies and destroy US credibility on world stage 😕.

To me its clear that the U.S wants to ensure all countries around it and︋ close allies are made into puppet regimes to serve the U.S best interest at a︌ cost to their own economies. Geopolitically the way they are going about it with Tariffs︍ and seizures is thuggish. It is literally the actions of a banana republic....lol

 

[Wellington]

Nah, BTC is‌ correlated with Global Liquidity @94% (like NDX) each time Global Liquidity rises 1% - BTC‍ follows roughly 8-12 weeks later with a 15% move.

Gold likewise is correlated with Global⁠ Liquidity but it's move is 9/10% for each 1% in Global Liquidity, the reason BTC⁤ is more 'volatile' is because its both 'technology' as well as 'monetary-inflation' hedge - note⁣ its not a variable inflation hedge (high - street).

So BTC will rise until it⁢ doesn't at that point the Dollar/Pound or what ever would be relaunched as something new︀ and BTC will price against that.

 

[JackAlabama]

well said.

 

[FATCA]

So can you predict BTC and NDX price on mid May? Why aren't you a billionaire?⁣

 

[void]

perhaps he is...

 

[Martin Everson]

Prevailing view among Americans is that U.S. influence in the world is weakening – and‌ China’s is growing​

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-r...the-world-is-weakening-and-chinas-is-growing/

I think the American people are under no illusions about the state of U.S⁣ geopolitical influence.

 

[FATCA]

I thought americans were⁠ retarded?

 

[melzvy]

interesting post ns2 .....

 

[thomasparra]

melzvy said:
interesting post ns2 .....

View attachment 8893
Click to expand...

This was always written in the book to be the dystopian future of capitalism.

 

[thomasparra]

This was always written‌ in the book to be the dystopian future of capitalism.

 

[Wellington]

Yes you can utilise various systems / techniques to‍ forecast forward either directionally or price range, the first thing to do is to build⁠ a Global Liquidity tracking system (that's not M2 or CB Balance Sheets), that will take⁤ you 6 months and approximately 200,000$ and will then cost roughly 300,000$ to maintain before⁣ factoring in data providers (500,000$ a year).

There are some providers that have opened parts⁢ of their own system(s) or others that have absorbed some of my technologies or others︀ that have their own methods, with price ranges available to the average person.

- Real︁ Vision - 2,000-10,000$ a year (https://realvision.com)
- Capital Wars - 750$ - 60,000$︂ a year (https://capitalwars.substack.com)
- Terminal - 75$ a year (huge system) (https://ai.catenacap.xyz)
- Bealzabub - 500$ a year (https://bealzabub.substack.com/)

Etc.

Then either use their︃ system(s) or take their data and do your own math/calcs based on their data and︄ then work / calc over time against assets and correlations.

That would provide daily, weekly,︅ monthly GL tracking -> you could use that for HFT or for Macro.

Then with︆ that and understanding how it all works you can branch out to other system(s) for︇ different asset classes.

A lot of the system(s) i made over the year(s) when public︈ have transitioned to various parties incorporated within their own system(s) and are accessible to outsider(s),︉ simplifying things for people that don't understand GL.

As for your last comment - I'm︊ comfortable...

 

[JustAnotherNomad]

Terminal is your company?

 

[Zala]

The United States is not truly a country , it’s essentially‍ a corporation. Its CEO is appointed by the board of directors (cleverly designed to make⁠ voters choose between two options), and the board members are undoubtedly capitalists. Capitalists, in turn,⁤ are puppets of capital. Ultimately, capital knows no borders , which means "America" can be⁣ anywhere, not just in North America

 

[W Fish]

You are right.
There is one more essential⁣ bit.
Like you say - capitalists are puppets of capital (as it should be) and⁢ capital is ruled by FED.

"America" is everywhere where USD is used as (at least︀ part) of reserves. This presence is manifested by sellin paper dollars with cost of production︁ near zero to the rest of the world for real value.

 

[Wellington]

You can't blame the US⁣ for this, its the EURODOLLAR market that drives the demand for dollars, are you aware⁢ for every treasury there's 47 claims and 3/4 $ transactions offshore are refinancing transactions, and︀ the Eurodollar debt is 380 Trillion $ and 75 Trillion of it is rolled over︁ annually, and its not the US that drives this but the market itself?