Safe Havens for Bitcoin During a Banking Crisis?
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Never been more serious.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
And this looks like a 4th chorus to me.
It's not if, but how long more, 2 months (accelerated, and 2-months-after-rate-cut-high-before-all-markets-drop, or 12 months as expected.
Oh, disclaimer, that's no financial advice, I am not an analyst, I am just doing mind acrobatics.
You are responsible for you own decisions and actions, not anyone else.
Need more charts?
History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
And this looks like a 4th chorus to me.
It's not if, but how long more, 2 months (accelerated, and 2-months-after-rate-cut-high-before-all-markets-drop, or 12 months as expected.
Oh, disclaimer, that's no financial advice, I am not an analyst, I am just doing mind acrobatics.
You are responsible for you own decisions and actions, not anyone else.
Need more charts?
Man this thread sent me on a trip down memory lane! Linden dollars, Virwox and even NXT?! I remember overwriting a text file with a passphrase to a wallet with tens of thousands worth of NXT and then running a file recovery program called Photorec for 3 days and it actually retrieved it and saved my a*s 😀
Remember the time before Bitcoin when it was just Perfect Money and Liberty Reserve and instead of shitcoins you invested in HYIPs which were just straight up pyramid schemes? Some of those were gigantic, I remember one called Profitable Sunrise that even had a former Miss America shilling︀ it.
I see speculating on altcoins as an evolution of playing those early HYIPs, back︁ then you had nothing to go on but pure hype and marketing and that still︂ is the same for most shitcoins but now you can find a real working product︃ which was like the holy grail back then, to find an investment that actually had︄ a real source of income. Now that can be easily found with Defi and staking,︅ liquidity pools, etc.
Remember the time before Bitcoin when it was just Perfect Money and Liberty Reserve and instead of shitcoins you invested in HYIPs which were just straight up pyramid schemes? Some of those were gigantic, I remember one called Profitable Sunrise that even had a former Miss America shilling︀ it.
I see speculating on altcoins as an evolution of playing those early HYIPs, back︁ then you had nothing to go on but pure hype and marketing and that still︂ is the same for most shitcoins but now you can find a real working product︃ which was like the holy grail back then, to find an investment that actually had︄ a real source of income. Now that can be easily found with Defi and staking,︅ liquidity pools, etc.
Since I see from some posts your opinion is respected, here's a question for you: 1) given Bitcoin being perceived as risk-on asset and its being very neatly correlated to SPX, would you not say that in case of a crisis whereby SPX crashes, so will bitcon; 2) bitcoin's prior cycle only reached 69k whereby the s2f model predicted it to go much higher, it also went below the previous cycle's peak of︀ 19k at prior bottom (even if you consider s2f a meme, aren't bitcoin cycles also︁ memes that were memed into existence); long story short, if the rainbow chart with bitcoin︂ cycles breaks down, how do you see bitcoin surviving? 3) bitcoin's fees are pretty low︃ and for many miners not profitable on their own, the more it goes into ETFs︄ that are traded offchain the less btc moves offchain, soon fees for economic security of︅ bitcoin won't make sense; -- so basically if we have a major financial crisis incoming︆ that can wipe out banks and likely drag bitcoin down with it (unless by some︇ unclear miracle it decouples from SPX and starts behaving like gold) what's your thesis for︈ holding bitcoin over the imminent mega-crash that may be coming? I don't even take more︉ extreme scenarios of war, internet shutdown or launch of quantum computer that can break sha256︊ isntantly hacking all bitcoin wallets and killing the basic narrative of bitcoin's network as the︋ most secure in the world.....
I share your concerns, with blackrock and︊ banks holding a big amount of bitcoin, they are able to orchestrate drops at will,︋ especially when playing the ETF vs. on-chain-BTC like they already did with Greyscale's product. With︌ more etfs, futures and options, the doors are open for that greedy banksters. I think︍ that this cycle should still work out ok, and I still hold on-chain-btc and sell︎ puts on it (right now).
Regarding the quantum computer breaking encryption, your bitcoin holdings would️ be your smallest problem, as this would mean that suddenly all passwords and codes for EVERYTHING become obsolete, from your online banking with traditional banks, all credit cards and digital payments, even that upcoming CDBCs, stockmarkets, to your health insurance, your countries military agenda and secrets, secret services and police databases, and everything else that's digital and accessible via the net. That's gonna be an apocalyptic event with huge consequences.
It would be a good idea to get into some physical valuables before it happens, or even better: lots of guns and ammo, and a really really safe bunker with enough food supply for shortages︀ (even better if you can 'create/grow' it).
Hmmm, why does Bill Gates with his farmland︁ purchases come into my mind right now, does he know more than we know about︂ the current quantum development? After all, he believes and tells the world that he somehow︃ changed from being a monopolist (selling windows preinstalled on every computer), to Epstein's friend and︄ frequent visitor to the pedo island, to 'the science' himself, making $$$ with the vaccine︅ scam, to now going into manufacturing his version of "soylent green". None of it is︆ very 'philanthropic', but calling it so saves a lots of taxes for the sociopaths.
Regarding the quantum computer breaking encryption, your bitcoin holdings would️ be your smallest problem, as this would mean that suddenly all passwords and codes for EVERYTHING become obsolete, from your online banking with traditional banks, all credit cards and digital payments, even that upcoming CDBCs, stockmarkets, to your health insurance, your countries military agenda and secrets, secret services and police databases, and everything else that's digital and accessible via the net. That's gonna be an apocalyptic event with huge consequences.
It would be a good idea to get into some physical valuables before it happens, or even better: lots of guns and ammo, and a really really safe bunker with enough food supply for shortages︀ (even better if you can 'create/grow' it).
Hmmm, why does Bill Gates with his farmland︁ purchases come into my mind right now, does he know more than we know about︂ the current quantum development? After all, he believes and tells the world that he somehow︃ changed from being a monopolist (selling windows preinstalled on every computer), to Epstein's friend and︄ frequent visitor to the pedo island, to 'the science' himself, making $$$ with the vaccine︅ scam, to now going into manufacturing his version of "soylent green". None of it is︆ very 'philanthropic', but calling it so saves a lots of taxes for the sociopaths.
You mean you always hold 1 BTC as a minimum for investment purpose?
what a post much to read, thanks.
what a post much to read, thanks.
As I see the biggest risk to Bitcoin is not that it's price might go down, but the US elite. Currently they see it as a play tool for the commons, but they might see it as a threat to the $ soon.
We are at all the time just one executive order from seizing all the ASIC miners in the US.
With that the US gov can start mining empty blocks with 0 transactions, and then bitcoin could easily get into a death spiral.
Nobody could transfer bitcoins because all the blocks are mined empty, all the miners in China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Germany︀ will stop because they just lose on electricity and gain nothing,
as time goes the︁ US can lower it's hashrate for the attack and in the end to keep mining︂ empty blocks in the next 100 years will cost them nothing.
I'm not saying this︃ will happen but the risk is always there, the US did strange things to defend︄ the dollar, just remember the Gold Reserve Act.
Altough it's surprising how lenient they are︅ with bitcoin, and how strict they were to other private currencies like Liberty dollar.
Looks like they still don't consider bitcoin as a threat, or maybe they just want Russia,︆ China, Iran, North-Korea to be dependent on Bitcoin before their move?
For the ecosystem the price going down︉ is not a big risk, funny but very high price and lots of hodlers but︊ no users is the worst scenario for bitcoin.
Price dropping would just invite new speculants︋ and young people to try it and get new believers.
Sometimes it makes me a︌ bit worry that Bitcoin is very unpopular among GenZ, even if they are in crypto,︍ mostly in memecoins and the majority leaves quickly because very few wins on those.
Most of the hashing and mining part are safe from quantum computers.
What is not are the addresses where the public keys are exposed, because with QC it️ will be trivial to get the private key from the public key.
Bitcoin is full with those, Satoshi's and many OG miners' coins are unsafe, about 2 million BTC.
Those "forever lost" bitcoins will likely come back to circulation within 5-10 years.
Many said that was Satoshi's goal, to make a big nice BTC reward to whoever reaches Quantum supremacy first and accelerate its development.
As Bitcoin price grows the reward pot becomes higher and higher.
This is just a one time problem though, if you use one-time cold wallets your BTC is safe as you have never signed a transaction with it.
Quantum computers can only get the private key from the public key, not from the hashed address.︀
Not necessarily, sure if someone︆ intercept your internet traffic they will break your TLS easily with quantum computers, but it's︇ just an individual problem, any large gov agency probably can do those MITM attacks currently︈ to any individual, most of the servers will still be safe enough as they still︉ be able to restrict IPs etc.
We are at all the time just one executive order from seizing all the ASIC miners in the US.
With that the US gov can start mining empty blocks with 0 transactions, and then bitcoin could easily get into a death spiral.
Nobody could transfer bitcoins because all the blocks are mined empty, all the miners in China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Germany︀ will stop because they just lose on electricity and gain nothing,
as time goes the︁ US can lower it's hashrate for the attack and in the end to keep mining︂ empty blocks in the next 100 years will cost them nothing.
I'm not saying this︃ will happen but the risk is always there, the US did strange things to defend︄ the dollar, just remember the Gold Reserve Act.
Altough it's surprising how lenient they are︅ with bitcoin, and how strict they were to other private currencies like Liberty dollar.
Looks like they still don't consider bitcoin as a threat, or maybe they just want Russia,︆ China, Iran, North-Korea to be dependent on Bitcoin before their move?
For the ecosystem the price going down︉ is not a big risk, funny but very high price and lots of hodlers but︊ no users is the worst scenario for bitcoin.
Price dropping would just invite new speculants︋ and young people to try it and get new believers.
Sometimes it makes me a︌ bit worry that Bitcoin is very unpopular among GenZ, even if they are in crypto,︍ mostly in memecoins and the majority leaves quickly because very few wins on those.
Most of the hashing and mining part are safe from quantum computers.
What is not are the addresses where the public keys are exposed, because with QC it️ will be trivial to get the private key from the public key.
Bitcoin is full with those, Satoshi's and many OG miners' coins are unsafe, about 2 million BTC.
Those "forever lost" bitcoins will likely come back to circulation within 5-10 years.
Many said that was Satoshi's goal, to make a big nice BTC reward to whoever reaches Quantum supremacy first and accelerate its development.
As Bitcoin price grows the reward pot becomes higher and higher.
This is just a one time problem though, if you use one-time cold wallets your BTC is safe as you have never signed a transaction with it.
Quantum computers can only get the private key from the public key, not from the hashed address.︀
Not necessarily, sure if someone︆ intercept your internet traffic they will break your TLS easily with quantum computers, but it's︇ just an individual problem, any large gov agency probably can do those MITM attacks currently︈ to any individual, most of the servers will still be safe enough as they still︉ be able to restrict IPs etc.
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