@wellington U.S. Treasury Secretary says there will not be a recession because of Trump’s tariffs…
Is this a manipulation tactic?
Is this a manipulation tactic?
Looks like the corporate back rate lending CLOs imploding
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If you were to ask me, the US, World has technically been in a recession but it hasn't been wide spread... because of all the juicing or increase in Government jobs over the past few years.
As for Bessents comments, unless the US increases its liquidity to roll its debt, then i can't see how they will avoid a depression, let alone recession...
Howell is a friend of Raoul, and Raoul a friend of Bessent, so Bessent is fully aware of this...but ultimately Trump calls the shots.
As for Bessents comments, unless the US increases its liquidity to roll its debt, then i can't see how they will avoid a depression, let alone recession...
Howell is a friend of Raoul, and Raoul a friend of Bessent, so Bessent is fully aware of this...but ultimately Trump calls the shots.
Crashing stocks could lower Treasury yields, allowing the U.S. to refinance debt at cheaper rates and save trillions. Pain now, relief later.
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Unless Xi starts selling U.S. bonds to prop up Chinese stocks. Then it’s pain now, and more pain later.
He won't.
Deterrence through interdependence.
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That’s a very good question. Plenty of places to park those dollars, but no obvious uptick yet. Still, Chinese bonds seem to be holding up just fine - despite all the doom-and-gloom about their economy.
Yes.
Liquidity is above September peak which declined, crypto lags by 13 weeks, its just gone above (last week) so should in theory start rising in due course (subject to the s**t show ongoing elsewhere)
Liquidity is above September peak which declined, crypto lags by 13 weeks, its just gone above (last week) so should in theory start rising in due course (subject to the s**t show ongoing elsewhere)
I mean it was the spreads blowing out that forced Bessent to act and force Trump to reign it in.
Posted about this a week ago, known 3 months, you guys should invest in systems for leading indicators rather than buying markets based on movements
Posted about this a week ago, known 3 months, you guys should invest in systems for leading indicators rather than buying markets based on movements
Mentioned before.
- Terminal (Geopolitical/Macro system & news)
- Bloomberg Terminal (Geopolitical/Macro system & news)
- Capital Wars Substack (Liquidity)
- Real Vision (Macro Interviews/Views)
- Few Dozen or so other Substacks or subscriptions ranging from Santiago Research to Marc Faber
All in about 250k a year (used commercially)
But for solid information with most feeding into one without the massive costs i'd say Terminal as its automated (dynamic) macro charts/indicators coupled with on-demand AI processing and about 300 bucks a year.
- Terminal (Geopolitical/Macro system & news)
- Bloomberg Terminal (Geopolitical/Macro system & news)
- Capital Wars Substack (Liquidity)
- Real Vision (Macro Interviews/Views)
- Few Dozen or so other Substacks or subscriptions ranging from Santiago Research to Marc Faber
All in about 250k a year (used commercially)
But for solid information with most feeding into one without the massive costs i'd say Terminal as its automated (dynamic) macro charts/indicators coupled with on-demand AI processing and about 300 bucks a year.
If you understood liquidity (i don't mean M2) and followed total global liquidity and shadow monetary base, you'd have known in September that 6 trillion (QE/YCC) was being drawn out in the US and 3 % of Total Global Liquidity was being drained.
Translation 1% Total Global Liquidity = 15% BTC move + or -
You'd also know the correlation is 84% and that the remainder is 'Sentiment', 'Gold' and 'Gold Feedback' with that in mind and knowledge that it takes ~13 weeks to hit the markets, and in additional localized-(globalized) macro impacts (Trump) you'd know you'd should start DCA'ing into Dollar(s)/Other, and then you'd have booked value.
You'd also know in early Jan that Total Global Liquidity commenced a re-rise and has only recently surpassed prior September highs and you'd be able to judge when that's going to hit the price point, you'd also be able to map out the FCI (Financial Conditions) alongside ISM (Business Cycle) with a lead of 9m of current and 22m into the future as the markets lag impacts that happened 3 months ago, 9 months ago, 18 months ago and 22 months ago.
Meaning you'd be- able to book solid profits with the left tail risk taken out.
But sure you can always DCA in.
Translation 1% Total Global Liquidity = 15% BTC move + or -
You'd also know the correlation is 84% and that the remainder is 'Sentiment', 'Gold' and 'Gold Feedback' with that in mind and knowledge that it takes ~13 weeks to hit the markets, and in additional localized-(globalized) macro impacts (Trump) you'd know you'd should start DCA'ing into Dollar(s)/Other, and then you'd have booked value.
You'd also know in early Jan that Total Global Liquidity commenced a re-rise and has only recently surpassed prior September highs and you'd be able to judge when that's going to hit the price point, you'd also be able to map out the FCI (Financial Conditions) alongside ISM (Business Cycle) with a lead of 9m of current and 22m into the future as the markets lag impacts that happened 3 months ago, 9 months ago, 18 months ago and 22 months ago.
Meaning you'd be- able to book solid profits with the left tail risk taken out.
But sure you can always DCA in.
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