Likelihood of FTX Honouring Deposits and Surviving?

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khinkali

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Feb 6, 2020
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1590709166515310593


Within ten seconds of posting this, someone votes "Less than 0%". Like Sam BF,‌ I have a physics degree (don't hold it against me) and I am fairly sure‍ that "Less than 0%" is not a mathematically viable answer.

I suspect a faster-than-human anti-crypto⁠ voting bot is at work. 😉
 
Well @JohnnyDoe, you are quite the philosopher today. I approve. 🙂

I chose not to have a 50-50 option because it allows people who are 49-51 or‍ 51-49 to bottle out. You are not exactly a shrinking violet so of course I⁠ appreciate your answer.

If the correct answer is 50%, then we can make some high⁤ expectation bets!
 
are there any (serious) examples of recovery in this sector? hardly

there are so many‌ alternatives to choose from that it makes no sense to trust someone who's reputation got‍ compromised

it must be hard to lose money with FTX (I presume many people here⁠ did) but it's a great thing in general, the market is cleaning, more people will⁤ understand that gambling is gambling and will hopefully move towards really trustless asset, self custody⁣ and p2p exchange

I'm still surprised how much BTC price is influenced by these unpleasant⁢ yet minor events, but at least one can buy with discount
 
@void I am willing to be eviscerated for this statement, but.... we don't actually know‌ that SBF's empire can't honour the deposits. I'm not talking about FTX or Alameda investors,‍ but consumer deposits. He has a duty to honour those deposits and if he can't⁠ then bad things will follow from it.

But...if the problem is timing, if he has⁤ the net assets, if people get paid out a little late, then that is not⁣ the worst thing. It sucks at the time. But it's not the same as not⁢ paying.

There is a big difference between being late to honour a debt because it︀ takes time to liquidate your assets, and not being able to honour that debt because︁ you didn't have the assets.

I doubt that he can set things right now. I'm︂ only 30% confident that he can. If the market were to price him a 1%︃ chance then I'd bet on him in an instant. I don't back winners, I look︄ for mispricing.
 
just a big show for the naive who think the market is being moved not‌ by banks algos
its a simple transfer of coins from retailers to them
 
Most probably, there funds are not available for︅ the forseeable future. Mt gox serves as an example.
 
Apologies, but you are living rich fantasy life.︅ The institutional investors had written of their balances to 0 after they found out the︆ news. There were a few very clever persons who saw the FTX books and said︇ that it is beyond fixing.

The guy lost investors' deposits that he was not supposed︈ to touch. It is a classic scenario. He would end up in jail.
 
Foreseeable future, I agree. What I was asking‍ is whether customer deposits can be honoured, once everything that can be unwound. FTX+Alameda had⁠ a wider variety of assets than Mt gox had.

How long would it take to⁤ unwind, and then how much of deposits could be covered? 10%? 90%?

Also people will⁣ be interested to see outflows from FTX+Alameda once things went bad, and recently before.

I agree. Their own terms were clear:

Let's see how well other exchanges put into action their︊ recent claims to be transparent about deposits.

Yes. There︌ are different types of liabilities. Investors in FTX and investors in Alameda invested in businesses︍ that failed and should expect to lose up to 100%. Then there are customer deposits.︎

Deposits should not have been used (see text above from FTX Website). Will bankruptcy and️ other proceedings prioritise customer deposits over other creditors?

There remains a serious legal problem, highlighted‌ by Coinbase' disclosure in May 2022.

There needs to be a better way to segregate user deposits.

If you put⁢ 1 ETH into an exchange and exchange it for 21 LTC, those 21 LTC should︀ already exist on blockchain, ready for you to withdraw. Someone else now gets to withdraw︁ your ETH that you sold them. No other creditor should have anything to do with︂ your deposits.

Perpetuals are different. Presumably that is where FTX and Alameda got it so︃ wrong. It looks like those who didn't agree with SBF's campaigning for CME style regulation︄ for exchanges have been vindicated.
 
There are rumors they drain it all. So everything might be gone.︊ Well the boy is losing his mind.
 
Intuition said
But than the chance should always be‌ strict greater than 0% ; ) So choose 0-20%.. although it is less than 1%‍ for sure.
 
drain what his worthless ftt token.You‍ even had a look at his asset sheet
 
In bankruptcy procedure of any⁤ jurisdiction (insolvent liquidation) the creditors are always divided by a few levels of priorities. The⁣ first in line are creditors whose demands are guaranteed by the collateral, i.e. institutional investors.⁢ Thank government. Then employees. And then it will be someone like myself who was idiotic︀ enough to lose 7.5k with FTX.
 
It was all fake, I think 5/10% at the very very best. Most likely you‌ will receive nothing. This was a scam almost from the get-go.

Most of the money‍ that went in went straight to corporate to draw more people in.
 
@Offshr this very bad approach to prioritising debts is something that has bothered people since‌ the Coinbase disclosure shone a light on it. It is worrying that SBF was ousted‍ after committing to prioritise customer deposits.

I wonder what structures and legal frameworks could support⁠ a better model and which jurisdictions, if any, already support a better model.
 

Less than 0%​


Calm down. this is a real number also known as "the chances‌ bibing has to sleep with Salma Hayek at least once in his (or her) life‍ time"
 
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