How would you invest €50k right now?

[Cavaliere]

This sounds interesting, what would be the best jurisdiction to do something like that from these days? Is it still possible if one would turn a blind-eye to the rules and just sell it from jurisdiction XYZ while living there and packing yours bag once you get the feeling the US is after you?

 

[JohnnyDoe]

Cavaliere said:
This sounds interesting, what would be the best jurisdiction to do something like that from these days? Is it still possible if one would turn a blind-eye to the rules and just sell it from jurisdiction XYZ while living there and packing yours bag once you get the feeling the US is after you?
Click to expand...

I've stopped dealing with the U.S. financial authorities so I'm not updated on that, but I guess you can sell such a software from anywhere you like and not worry too much. Including a random U.S. LLC.

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[backpacker]

That's not a bad idea, sure.
However, my preference would be long term (>10 years). In a year from now people will be wondering why they didn't take up this "once in a lifetime chance" on the bond market.

 

[369]

Aren't funds the biggest loser in a big downtrend because nearly all of them buy the exact same stocks?

the peak of bonds has not been reached and it will take some years to reach it as the second high inflation is to come after the deflation which will create a hard landing and in the end money printing .
The big diffrence of today is that markets have been inflated via money printing.
Currently they are deleveraging.At one point it will go only one direction over years which is down.

China and Russia already dumping their bonds.

 

[backpacker]

It might not have been reached yet. But we are very close. It won't take years, otherwise the world economy will collapse - which it won't due to political and monetary intervention.

 

[369]

It won't collapse there will be hard recession which will lower inflation automaticly.However it will destroy the economy massivly and will make the crowd poor.At one point when this happens they will distribute controlled money again to their choosen ones (industry 4.0). There is the high possibility of negative interest rates on money for end customers to force them to consume to stimulate the econemy.This will cause an even higher inflation we saw
Stagflation is their goal.
Another issue on bonds because people say here bonds are the most safe category.That was true in the past.
If you see their agendas they plan smart cities and smart governments where real governments doesn't exist anymore in their agendas.
However buying bonds and selling them within few years for the price diffrence should be fine.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/04/29/Enabling-Deep-Negative-Rates-A-Guide-46598

The goal is the transformation of current econemy to local industry 4.0 which will end the global econemy and centralize everything.
Monetary system will fail as thats their goal to implement the new monetary system they agreed back in 2012
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-dominance-could-way-tripolar-182500899.html
Once BRICS start with their own currency the dollar will decrease its value quickly which will cause automaticly high inflation.We are talking here about a 40% value decrease over some years which leads automaticly to high inflation on commodities.

 

[Onassis]

Will never happen.

 

[Mister Sir]

1) Delicious affordable food with a secret recipe that takes longer than the average food product to be perishable.
2) Very very very attractive exotic polite multi language women....
3) Turning raw materials into something valuable that need many prerequisites of education, talent, skill and rare intuitiveness to create and can't just be re-engineered and copied somehow by a multitude of other wanna-prenuers, engineers, inventors or other creative types....

 

[uranium]

I have been thinking about this and still dont get it
Can someone explain this

Please someone explain this
I don't understand

Please someone explain this
I don't understand

This part please someone explain this

 

[369]

JPM said the world is not prepared for 7%

 

[thomasparra]

backpacker said:
That's not a bad idea, sure.
However, my preference would be long term (>10 years). In a year from now people will be wondering why they didn't take up this "once in a lifetime chance" on the bond market.
Click to expand...

Yes, LT bonds are interesting right now - they are all above 4.7% from 5 years to even 30 years. But I would not hold funds, solely individual bonds on the secondary market for this purpose.

Right now I am happy with short term treasuries, and stocks but I am focused on long term growth rather than capital preservation at this stage of my life.

uranium said:
I have been thinking about this and still dont get it
Can someone explain this


Please someone explain this
I don't understand


Please someone explain this
I don't understand
This part please someone explain this
Click to expand...

Didn't you tell me "better to leave it here" a few months ago? What don't you understand specifically?

 

[thomasparra]

Yes, LT bonds are interesting right now - they are all above 4.7% from 5 years to even 30 years. But I would not hold funds, solely individual bonds on the secondary market for this purpose.

Right now I am happy with short term treasuries, and stocks but I am focused on long term growth rather than capital preservation at this stage of my life.
Didn't you tell me "better to leave it here" a few months ago? What don't you understand specifically?

 

[backpacker]

If you invest only in Treasuries, this might be the way to go.

However, if you mix it with EM debt or HY, there is a lack of diversification. Ten years ago, when interest rates where low and chances of default where (automatically) also relatively low, this was borderline o.k. .
Today the risk of default has increased exponentially and I would not want to have a large position of a single EM or HY debtor in my portfolio - too risky.
So, to participate from higher yielding debt in the long run, I think it is safer to invest with well-regulated funds.

 

[thomasparra]

backpacker said:
If you invest only in Treasuries, this might be the way to go.

However, if you mix it with EM debt or HY, there is a lack of diversification. Ten years ago, when interest rates where low and chances of default where (automatically) also relatively low, this was borderline o.k. .
Today the risk of default has increased exponentially and I would not want to have a large position of a single EM or HY debtor in my portfolio - too risky.
So, to participate from higher yielding debt in the long run, I think it is safer to invest with well-regulated funds.
Click to expand...

I am not opposed to a global multi country indexing per market weight approach when it comes to bonds but I am generally not interested in bond funds/ETFs for a couple of different reasons. Therefore I prefer to hold treasuries directly and from AA/AA+ countries such as the US.

 

[thomasparra]

I am not opposed to a global multi country indexing per market weight approach when it comes to bonds but I am generally not interested in bond funds/ETFs for a couple of different reasons. Therefore I prefer to hold treasuries directly and from AA/AA+ countries such as the US.

 

[uranium]

I read this topic again yesterday and was thinking maybe i missed something
I'm not interested in bonds.
I'm interested in etf
Like Voo
This year Voo achieved 11.5% return
Inflation in USA now is 3.7%
So inflation free profit = 7.8%
What do you think about this?

 

[thomasparra]

uranium said:
I read this topic again yesterday and was thinking maybe i missed something
I'm not interested in bonds.
I'm interested in etf
Like Voo
This year Voo achieved 11.5% return
Inflation in USA now is 3.7%
So inflation free profit = 7.8%
What do you think about this?
Click to expand...

I think you should read some articles on investing 101. You also seem to dissociate ETFs and bonds in a way that they are mutually exclusive but they are not.

The impact of inflation on your personal situation has many variables, and even if you were able to quantify it today, it should generally not be part of your investment decision process unless you hope to time and beat the market, which is as believable as flipping a coin, at least for a non professional investor.

 

[thomasparra]

I think you should read some articles on investing 101. You also seem to dissociate ETFs and bonds in a way that they are mutually exclusive but they are not.

The impact of inflation on your personal situation has many variables, and even if you were able to quantify it today, it should generally not be part of your investment decision process unless you hope to time and beat the market, which is as believable as flipping a coin, at least for a non professional investor.

 

[USDT]

What risks and drawbacks do you see in holding all funds in short-term US treasuries for the next 6-18 months?

 

[uranium]

You didn't answer me
I paste here again
This year Voo achieved 11.5% return
Inflation in USA now is 3.7%
So inflation free profit = 7.8%
Can you ignore this 7.8% profit?
It is inflation free profit