EUR/USD exchange rate

[Jorozey]

Europe is in the light of its own experience of the 20th century, to once again put itself in a position of entrenched destructive inflation. Consider the long-term political and social consequences we have yet to see.

An excerpt from George Goodman's book "Paper Money" for an example:

It's all there and available from every book written about the time, and history is about to repeat itself.

Also:
https://www.myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Research_2023_01_13.pdf
The money supply is shrinking. Accumulated debts cannot be paid. The looming recession will force the FED to print regardless of the inflation rate!

- the old debt was always repaid with a new one

- there will be stimulus again

- FED it must go brrrrrrr to infinity or die

We are at the end of this cycle.

 

[denniz07]

So what is you conclusion to do for it? I mean in this case both EUR and USD could go down... but who knows how long it can take.
Most people don't hold that much cash anyway. So mostly you have real estate or some stocks / etf's for most poeple.

PS: To be honest I hold a lot of cash right now. Although if you read the Great Depression 1930 you would see that at that time it was the best bet. So when markets went down you could invest very good.
Don't believe that USD will go down so fast. They are in a good position. Inflation coming down. Sure they will go back to brrrrrr like evryone else.

 

[JJReddick]

LMAO

China couldn't even come up with a working vax, a lot of thier hitech progress was copy pasting industrial secrets from the west, military is well behind that of US, there are still 500m people living in medieval conditions, real estate is 33% of its GDP and its just beginning to burst, the country is run in a sort of anarcho capitalist envoronment with no decent welfare, pension or public healthcare system whatsoever while demography is utterly screwed. But muh Ray Dalio

 

[369]

nice someone has some know how but this time its diffrent.
Banks are not needed anymore thanks to CBDC's which will be distributed directly by central banks.
There is a reason why big banks splitted into investment banks and customer banks.
Old debt won't be paid.Majority of people like you explained won't be able to pay their debt and lose everything.

Cash is king when prices are down.Stocks,RE etc will all go down when liquidity is rare
However you need to place a bet at a currency which will benefit from the new monetary system.
Once BRICS implement their payment system based on gold say good bye to EUR/USD value

You are a blind fool.To blind to see that the West and China are coworking.However China is not getting democratic but we get communist.
Yuan getting a world reserve currency is a done deal since 2013.
Its now only a show for the public so they keep beliving in free markets

You still live in status quo instead of looking where they are heading.Both the West and the rest of the world.

 

[thedirtyteller]

That the BRICS countries want to implement their payment system based on gold is just a rumor so far.

 

[369]

ROFL
Did you ever read IMF reports ?
Its planned for over a decade or do you call WMF and BIZ a rumor?
BIZ calling gold tier 1 money is what exectly a rumor?
The new monetary system is accepted by every country in the world and it will be implemented by the IMF via SDR's

 

[Jorozey]

I'm just saying, Europe is over and by the time they warn you on TV, you'll be 10 years too late.

- The center of economic development is shifting from Europe/America to the Asia-Pacific region.

- The price of oil will rise to $200 per barrel, and the price of gas will reach $5k per 1000 cubic meters. Small and medium-sized enterprises will be brought to their knees, as the goal and agenda of WEF is to destroy them.

- They pushing CBDC, Universal Basic Income and a Social Rating (Social Credit System) so that we live in Digital Panopticon, fully controlled and monitored. Totally dependent on the state.

- The euro and the dollar will cease to circulate as world reserve currencies.

- The EU will collapse

- The USA will collapse

Trust me you will live long enough to see it happen. Don't be mad at me, be mad about all this at the self-proclaimed "elites" members of the World Economic Forum and their agenda 2030/Great Reset

PS, everything will be presented for "our good"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/worlde...that-is-or-how-differently-well-live-in-2030/

 

[alistera]

I know the people who produced this chart in 2013 calling for GBPUSD parity within 7-10yrs (it took 9yrs) and a full 3yrs ahead of El-Erian., it has close correlation to EURUSD.

The USD is the worlds reserve currency, when the world panics they buy USD and when the world is at ease they sell USD, it's not that simple but that is one driver, the other is the $31trillion US debt and if they start to default that will send the world in to a tailspin, I've been given numbers of EURUSD going down to 0.8 if certain dynamics come in to play, but the real question is, how will it get there.

Forward projection analysis requires hedge fund and institutional architectures worth $millions, with fund managers paid similar who can interpret the output, I was asked to write a stock analysis report for a broker a little while back on a short deadline with leading stocks, I thought to myself this is going to be some hard work but on asking further questions it turned out that they just wanted rear view data with a maybe up or maybe down, real stock reports costs $1,000s to $10,000s (like the report I received to short Tesla in 2022 at $400 for a 50% profit) with MiFID II research and analysis subscriptions costing $100,000s via an institutional entity which uses the same architecture.

The probability today is that the world is going through lower highs, moving capital to safe haven and back out when people believe the coast is clear (this movement is where the wealth will be made because everyone will count on higher highs via old purchasing power), there is an inflection point at 35k Dow looming, however that can change at a moment given world dynamics today, the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, the original post chart is simply the world moving to safe haven and then having wind blue skies are ahead and going risk on as the 'spread' between entities/countries/continents closes, the 'reason' in the news is whatever seems to be a plausible explanation which may or may not resemble the underlying facts.

Europe being a continent entity will always be slower to adjust than the US to interest rate moves via Quantitative Tightening which has driven a large part of the Forex adjustments, whether that is a good thing depends, but as I said I know people who put out a research report in 2013 explaining this exact safe haven bid to USD which happened when they said it would happen, the main problem is the rest of the world takes an eternity to catch up which is why I have time on my hands, you just have to patiently wait.

 

[369]

the parity prediction is a nobrainer if you have some background information.
I can tell you aud/usd/gbp/eur/cad will all be at one point at parity .
The prediction was made in 2013 because BRICS was ready to blow up the USD as the US was not willing to accept a multi polar monetary system.
At the end they accepted the terms and the monetary battle stopped.
However the parity is still valid as its a global plan

 

[thedirtyteller]

EUR/USD 0.8? It's heading toward 1.1 at the moment

 

[alistera]

And it came from 1.25, the point being.

 

[thedirtyteller]

And it seems we're heading back there as well

 

[369]

suckers rally

 

[thedirtyteller]

Doesn't seem like it. I'm willing to be proven wrong.

 

[backpacker]

@369 wrote that more than 5 months ago - and was right.
Now let's see what happens. Usually the US is the frontrunner, then EU follows after a while by creating huge chaos due to their uncoordinated and diffuse policies.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro gaining some strength over the next couple of months, just to collapse again.

 

[369]

USD is soon hitting a trendling from 2008 and major MA.In my eyes it will have a strong bounce back up.
You just need to watch out what the the announcment of the BRICS currency will cause if there will be a significant break down through trendline.
My personal opinion first a big upwards movement of the USD before it will lose massivly on value same as EUR.Both currencies will be in the end major losers end have an exchange rate near 1:1
Better to hold CAD or AUD vs USD/EUR

 

[JustAnotherNomad]

What about currencies like CHF?

 

[backpacker]

I don't understand the context.
What do you mean with that: 1:1 USD/EUR?
If both currencies will be on par (i.e. 1:1), the loss for somebody in the Western World would be limited or even inexistent...
Please explain your opinion.

Chad and AUD are commodity currencies. Both, specifically AUD, have disappointed for the past 10 years. Not sure if they are really better than USD.

Will it really happen anytime soon, considering that these countries have so many differences (?) -> Internationalize the rupee while a BRICS currency loses traction

 

[369]

it will perform better in the beginning than USD or EUR however in the end it will have the same value like them.

Longterm AUD/CAD are the better deal.USD will lose nearly 30% to it longterm.

You are correct 1USD will be in the end worth 1EUR which based on exchange rate will be limited risk however the value of both currencies compared to curriencies like AUD/CAD will fall massivly.

USD is currently the world reserve currency.Once CNY will be also implemented as world reserve currency many countries will swap their USD into CNY which will make that USD will lose value.
If soon ?Depends what is soon for you.It will happen over the next years.

For the final monetary system (high probably the second one) they need all western curriencies to be on parity so thats why you know which currencies will do better than others.The major loser will be GBP.
To get them on parity USD/GBP/EUR needs to lose a lot of value.

Once they are on parity you have your signal that the final new monetary system is knocking on the door.

 

[backpacker]

Thanks for explaining your point of view.
What is the reason that you favor AUD and CAD: Do you expect another commodity super cycle, so that these currencies can benefit?