Cashing out crypto and then?

[cryptofriendly]

LOL, I'm not even half way through life, according to the average life expectancy I should still be alive by then.
But I don't think I could spend that much money when 80 years old anyway, doing coke from a hookers a*s
would kill me then for sure.

Daniel, I think my fasting, NAD+, and metformin supplements should add even a few years more.
In the end it's not about duration, but quality of life.

 

[daniels27]

You mean that you started travelling by the age of 13?

 

[cryptofriendly]

You mean I won't get older than 82? I beg you pardon, being unvaxxed should add a few years.

 

[daniels27]

You mentioned average life expectancy, which won't get older than 82.

 

[cryptofriendly]

Deepseek suggests 84 at least, it states that as I have already survived my childhood and my wild teens, the life expectancy at the current point actually statistically increases, and also the location plays a role, as the absence of opiates and gun violence (non-US) adds 4-5 years as well. It's pretty interesting.

BTW: I didn't know you keep a book on me 😉

 

[daniels27]

I do not keep a book, but I remembered you writing this a few weeks ago.

 

[Peter Taradash]

Long Term Investing for Octogenarians

When you get to be over 80, "long term investing" doesn't make much sense.

One of my smart young neighbors here in Manila BGC wanted me to put some money into his excellent investing strategy:

What’s that?

A major shopping mall called Market Market is being torn down. It will definitely be replaced in about 3-5 years with an even bigger mall, apartments, and more importantly, a major subway transit station.

He (IMO anyway) correctly predicts that the apartments now for sale across the street – for sale at around$300-$400 will easily double in value . He is going into highly leveraged deals

for as many as he can buy with little or no money down. Existing rents should cover holding costs with a slight negative cash flow. He needs investors.

To make a long story short, a 30% annual return (in Pesos or dollars) is all but assured. Should I (or YOU?) go into this deal with him?

It depends:

If my life expectancy was 20 years or more, maybe yes. But as it is, what difference will it make if when the deals mature I am in my 90's – very likely to be in heaven.

I write this to let Offshore Corp's more mature members that common sense dictates that "long term investing" may not be for you.

 

[Mercury]

This. When people talk about investment they almost never consider life expectancy or rather healthy life expectancy, although that's a key criteria.

https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/t...e-life-expectancy-and-healthy-life-expectancy

Money does not make you immortal (yet).

 

[EliasIT]

very very true, in your situation and your age you only focus on short term, long term is long over for you. Question is if you have sufficient with money if you should look into any investment at all, or just enjoy the max level of the rest of your life with what you have.

 

[void]

it depends on one's model of preferences, doesn't?
somebody cares solely about himself, somebody thinks about the offspring or future generations (family name), somebody is focused on a "legacy", company or brand - all options are perfectly legit but have totally different impact on one's actions

 

[kokunut]

what location would it be if you want to avoid reporting and SOF, today both is in place worldwide.

 

[Peter Taradash]

I'd invest in real estate where the general voting population is predominantly Libertarian (not Leftist in favor of regulating & soaking the rich). Also, low or no heavy ownership or carrying charges, like the crazy high taxes on property in places like California. Monaco is the only place I can think of. But unfortunately, the prices there have always been the highest in the world. Why? Because the super rich of the world can buy a place, get "legal residence" there in Monaco and pay NO income tax and no property tax.

Thirty years ago I looked at a very nice large 60 m2 studio ocean front super view apartment in the Monaco Star Condo. It was about $500,000 then. For less than that money I could buy in France, across the street, a newer, better apartment 3 times as big --which is exactly what I did.

What happened in the following 30 years?

The French building got older and needed more and more updating & costly repairs (like a new roof, new pool, plumbing, heating, etc.)
I paid roughly $2500 every month in taxes & other charges on the French condo. It went up in value from $350 to $3 million, in spite of zoning changes & a new apartment building , now partially blocking the sea view. Ths reduced the value by maybe 20% of what it would have been.

The Monaco studio apartment also incurred charges for repairs, modernization & upgrading. As workers & materials are more expensive in Monaco, it was about the same: $2500 a month over the 30 years.

Just like people (ha ha me!); All improved property gets older and needs repairs, even in Monaco. Two years ago, the market value of the studio was over $5 million ... Thus, values in Monaco increased more (in %) than in the nearby French Riviera. Then there was a landfill in Monaco, & a new building that cut off the sea view of the Monaco Star. This reduced the value of the studio by about 20% of what it would have been.

What's the moral of this story? What should you take away?
1) Real Estate in any good location will seem to go up in value by maybe 5 to 10% a year. But that is mainly because the value of fiat currency (paper money) is going down by that much. Obviously increasing demand for good location property makes the real value go up by even more than that.
2) Property in bad locations or even less good when things like the view being cut off can & will decline in value.
3) It is hard -- impossible to predict the future, although you can usually make a good guess based upon past performance and trends.

Bottom Line?
Where to buy now?
Usually, 1) any great URBAN locations where holding costs are low to nil & prices are very depressed. One such place is -- Biella, Italy, where prices are maybe 1/4 of similar places in Italy. This is way below most of Europe aside from Bulgaria and other undesirable locals. How about CHINA? Vietnam? Cambodia? Other places in Asia?
2)Places where the sentiment is not against property owners and landlords.
3) Always go for good quality construction!
4) I have found that using my "hundred house rule -- explained in my book Think Like A Tycoon" & seeking out DISTRESS PROERTY anywhere, to buy at under 1/2 of market value in an active market. You solve the problem(s) -- maybe by fixing the place up cosmetically ... Then you simplyrent & hold for appreciation or sell for a quick 50% profit. This has always been a sure money maker.
And that, my dear reader, is my 2c for today. Peter Taradash

 

[ElBotellon]

thanks for your comprehensive summary

People don't like distressed properties in auction because they buy what they like, not what is a good deal. Very often they buy with advisors which are not financially driven but emotionally driven (e.g. wife).
The solution? help your wife to buy her distressed properties and rent them to third parties, you buy yours and you both rent the place where you wanna live (and relocate once new opportunities arise).

90+% of people find the above absurd. I find the above trivial.

 

[JimBeam]

Can you share more details why Biela? Average property prices there range are from ~€750 up to ~€900 per sqm for the city centre. And that's really dirt cheap! No question about it.

BUT:

1. The population of that city and that whole region is declining.
   
2. Most of the properties I've seen online are fairly old (maintenance costs?!?)
   
3. In Italy you don't pay the property tax on your first property (primary residence - where you live) but you do pay it once you have more than one - so it can be expensive if you plan to own couple of properties to diversify. Taxes are up to around 1% of cadastral value. Let's not forget that property transfer tax on the primary home is 2% but on all other is 9% of the value, min €1,000 (WTF!). Let's not forget the notary fee of 2-4%. So high closing costs.
   
4. How much do you think these can appreciate in 5 years time? Do you suggest just buy and hold or renting it out? Long term vs short term? Can you rent out your primary residence?
   

 

[Peter Taradash]

1. The population of that city and that whole region is declining.
   
2. Most of the properties I've seen online are fairly old (maintenance costs?!?)-- Yes, you are correct. The population of Italy as a whole is declining, and Biella in particular is doing worse than many other areas. Why? It used to be the world's leader, producing high-quality wool & silk fabric. Over the last 20 years, China & other places in Asia have produced better, cheaper stuff . This led to many Biella area factories closing & along with that, many jobs were lost. The lack of employment opportunities resulted in many homes and apartments being vacated as the residents went to the U.K. and other places, like the USA, to find work. Strangely enough, the population decrease might have been met by people of Italian descent abroad filing applications for residence and restoration of their ancestral citizenship. But with typical Italian bureaucratic stupidity, instead of hiring more staff and charging big fees to encourage repopulation by ethnic Italians, Italy fired immigration staff and is now making it much harder to re-assert citizenship. The EU is also making it harder for foreigners to stay in the EU more than 3 months at a time. There are solutions for the PT or digital nomad who wants to move to Italy, and n ot pay a ridiculous amount for a "golden visa." It can be "free" but no room for explaining that here.
   
3. In Italy, you don't pay the property tax on your first property (primary residence - where you live), but you do pay it once you have more than one - so it can be expensive if you plan to own couple of properties to diversify. Taxes are up to around 1% of cadastral value. Real estate annual taxes in Italy & most of Europe are about 5% of those same taxes in USA , so carrying costs on real estate like houses owned are minimal. But Condo and home owner asslociation fees are about the same as in USA. So Let's no t forget that property transfer tax on the primary home is 2% but on all other is 9% of the value, min €1,000 (WTF!). Let's not forget the notary fee of 2-4%. So high closing costs. Correct! Figure about 10% extra for closing costs on anything but a 1st home. Real estagte broker fees tend to be closer to 2% as opposed to arond 6% in other places. High closing costs 10% in and 10% out mdeans that you need to sell a property for 20% more than. you pay to break even.
   
4. How much do you think these can appreciate in 5 years time? Your guess is as good as mine!~! However, in Campione, Italy with that the town in a renaissance mode ( with the casino re-opened) there is much more upside. I think poperties there could easily double in price in the next few years. Do you suggest just buy and hold or renting it out? Long term vs short-term? Can you rent out your primary residence? You can always rent out rooms in your home. If you live in your "primary residence" at least a year and get official residence, you can rent it out and probably get away with it, if the tenant does not apply for legal residence himself. Suggested Strategy? Live cheaply in Italy anywhere aside from expensive Milan. Enjoy the ambiance at 10% of California prices if you have a portable, invisible income. Don't expect to make serious money by flipping properties unless you do it with options. Once you take title the extra closing costs make it hard to make money. One way to beat the sytem may be with corporate ownership. You buy and sell shares in the company owning the real estate, never changing the title.
   

 

[Peter Taradash]

P.S. Just because “most of the property listed for sale is old” doesn’t mean you can’t find relatively new (or even unfinished) stuff at bargain or distress prices. It is like searching for a wife. If most of the 1 billion women on Earth are unsuitable, with 1% OK, you still have millions to choose from –if you LOOK!
As an aside, a friend bought a remodeled property originally built 700 years ago. He is very happy living in a historic property now fitted with all modern conveniences. There are several places like this on the market in Biella and many more all over Italy that you could re-do with the cheap artisan labor available there. New properties never have old stone walls that are a meter thick!

 

[JimBeam]

Makes sense to buy cheap property there and live "under the radar".

But as far as I have figured your post - it was about investing into real estate - and not buying it for yourself - so that's why I wanted to know more as from investment standpoint it makes no sense to buy there.

And IMO buying a property where you will actually live is not an investment - it's a necessity (you need somewhere to live) and also a choice (to buy/own vs rent).

 

[Peter Taradash]

Most people don't try to get a super distress deal on the place they will live. They pay market price or above & then spend money they will never get back to personalize it. They are not trying to make a profit on their home. Same with cars for most people. That doesn't mean that a car or a house couldn't yield a fabulous % profit for if well chosen, well financed, and well fixed up to sell for top dollar in the local market.
A friend of mine bought a run down residence for himself. --worst property in best neighborhood. After fixing it up, he sold it 2 years later for a huge profit. It did not go up by a factor of 10 or 100, it was just that he bought for a low 5% down with a good cheap loan he was able to pass on to the next buyer. If you buy for 100,000 with 5% down, and sell for 150,000 ; figure out the % return on your 5000!